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Wildfire Season 2013

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by rimrocker, Apr 17, 2013.

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rimrocker Contributing Member

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Could be interesting.

2013 Wildfire Season Has Potential To Be Worse Than Average

While wildfires are inevitable in the West during the summer, this year the season has the potential to be worse than average.

Drought, which began last summer, become significantly worse over many areas of the West this winter. The drought is showing few signs of improvement this spring.

Only portions of Wyoming and Colorado to the central High Plains have had some moisture-rich storms of late.

Long-term indications are that these storms will break off in the weeks ahead and are not a sign of wetter times through the summer. This year's drought will shift farther west, compared to last year, which focused from the Plains to the Midwest.

According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, head of AccuWeather.com's Long Range Forecasting Department, "The latest indications are that the core of heat and drought for the summer of 2013 will focus from the High Plains to California and will expand into the Northwest and the northern Rockies."

The region is likely to have many critical Fire Weather days, which are defined by the National Weather Service as days in which the relative humidity is at or below 15 percent, winds are 20 mph or higher and the fire danger is rated at a high or extreme level.

"As the summer progresses, we believe thunderstorms will begin to fire over the Southwest, associated with the monsoon, but moisture may be limited moving farther north to a point over the West," Pastelok said.

While the storms will provide a source of moisture to a small fraction of the region, lightning strikes from the storms will ignite wildfires. Many of the storms will not bring significant rainfall to a broad area.

Extreme heat is forecast over a large part of the West this summer. Last summer, Denver officially hit 100 degrees 13 times. This summer has the potential to bring just as many, if not more, 100-degree days. It could be a similar story for Salt Lake City, which had 11 days in which temperatures hit 100 degrees or higher.

The higher the temperature, the lower the humidity. The dry air and extreme temperature increase the flammability of the brush.

Adding to the danger of the dry brush is the bark beetle over western forests, which is killing scores of trees and creating more dry fuel for the fires.

Budget cuts to the U.S. Forest Service could also play a role, by limiting the amount of firefighters and lowering the amount of acreage set aside for hazardous fuel reduction.

The Forest Service estimates to have substantial cuts this year, and over half of those cuts could be shouldered by wildland fire management.

While one area may be favored over another for wildfires and thunderstorms, there is still the potential for a random stray storm or careless human activity in the region.

Even though available firefighters will be positioned in key areas, there is the potential for a large fire breaking out and rapidly spreading in an area with limited coverage.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), on average, wildfires burn 4.3 million acres each year in the U.S. Last year, 9.3 million acres burned.

An area of high pressure is projected to set up at most levels of the atmosphere, centered over the Four Corners region this summer. Last summer, the high set up farther east, over the central Plains.

A pattern such as this represents an area of sinking air and warmth at the surface and aloft. The combination makes for a very stable atmosphere and tends to prevent thunderstorm activity initially. However, as the pattern progresses, moisture can circulate into the high from the outside. Such moisture can lead to thunderstorm formation over the mountains.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/17/2013-wildfire-season-predictions_n_3102651.html
Click to expand...

Yep, the 4 Corners High is critically important. Think of a giant spinning circle with the outer edge making an arc from SoCal, through OR, and into ID. It will spin monsoonal Pacific moisture from AZ and NM around the edge, but by the time it gets to CA, OR, and ID, it will only be energy with not much moisture. That's when we get the summer lightning storms that wreak havoc.

Still early for outlooks in some areas, but here's the forecast for AZ, NM, and West TX, spoilered for size:

And here's the national early forecast map, spoilered for size:

#1 rimrocker, Apr 17, 2013

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It was awful a couple of years ago in TX. Hopefully this rainy weather keeps coming back.

So much smoke from the fires last year in ETX, was like fog.

#2 Uprising, Apr 17, 2013
rimrocker Contributing Member

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East Texas looks OK this year. The heavy action will be in AZ/NM starting right about now through mid-July and moving to NorCal and the NW by mid-July through mid-Oct.

#3 rimrocker, Apr 17, 2013
rimrocker Contributing Member

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National Interagency Fire Center released the May National Outlook today. This is the outlook you take seriously for planning the summer.

Full text and other maps here:

http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

#4 rimrocker, May 1, 2013
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this was my first thought when I opened this thread

#5 BigBird, May 1, 2013
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I don't live in Katy. Should I evacuate?

#6 SwoLy-D, May 1, 2013
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That's the 2nd time I've clicked this thread expecting to find about some new TV show or video game.

#7 vinsensual, May 1, 2013

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At least we've been getting pounded by snow in Colorado all April. Something like 8 feet in the mountains. 4 feet in Boulder.

It will be quite a mud season this year in Colorado. That's good!

#8 heypartner, May 1, 2013
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rimrocker said: ↑

National Interagency Fire Center released the May National Outlook today. This is the outlook you take seriously for planning the summer.

Full text and other maps here:

http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf
Click to expand...

Hawaii is Red. What are the odds they'll send you there. Do you have to have a certain amount of life rep points to get to pick Hawaii.

#9 heypartner, May 1, 2013
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<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/1yLVufAfby0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

I prefer Wildflower season.

#10 KingCheetah, May 1, 2013
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Wow, where is Obama on this?

#11 Mr. Clutch, May 1, 2013
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Will we get rain in Texas

Get to Cali rim

#12 updawg, May 1, 2013
rimrocker Contributing Member

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And so it begins...

Hundreds of firefighters battled a wind-lashed 3,000-acre wildfire in California on Thursday that has already consumed one home and forced evacuations in mostly undeveloped sections of Riverside County.

A second brush-fueled fire sparked to life Thursday in Ventura County and grew to more than 2,000 acres, according to a post on the county fire department’s website. The fire continued to spread, the post said. More than 200 firefighters were called to the blaze, NBC Los Angeles reported, and the Ventura Freeway was shut down as firefighters streamed into the area.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/201...s-battle-rising-winds-3000-acre-wildfire?lite
Click to expand...

#13 rimrocker, May 2, 2013

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heypartner said: ↑

At least we've been getting pounded by snow in Colorado all April. Something like 8 feet in the mountains. 4 feet in Boulder.

It will be quite a mud season this year in Colorado. That's good!
Click to expand...

In some places. Other places didn't get as much snow

#14 MoonDogg, May 2, 2013
rimrocker Contributing Member

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Been building slowly with a couple of unexpected, moist systems in early June. However, seems to have started in earnest this week. Since Monday: One smokejumper fatality, 8 incident management teams assigned, and 5 geographic areas reporting large fires (SW, SoCal, NW, Great Basin, and Rocky Mtns/CO).

Also here's a video starring a smokejumper buddy of mine:

<object width="560" height="315"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/ijObSo81wc0?hl=en_US&version=3"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ijObSo81wc0?hl=en_US&version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="560" height="315" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object>

#15 rimrocker, Jun 12, 2013
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Starting out worse than last year.....this sucks.

Colorado wildfires: Black Forest Fire, Royal Gorge Fire, Big Meadows fires

#16 MoonDogg, Jun 13, 2013
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19 confirmed dead on Yarnell Hill Fire near Prescott, AZ. Largest number of firefighter fatalities on one incident since 9/11. This sucks.

#17 rimrocker, Jun 30, 2013
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http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/30/us/arizona-missing-firefighters/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

#18 Warning-Sign, Jun 30, 2013

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RIP.

#19 dmc89, Jul 1, 2013
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Awful.

#20 Rocketman95, Jul 1, 2013

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