Here's what I would want Espada to do... 2B Altuve RF Tucker 3B Bregman LF Alvarez CF McCormick C Diaz 1B Abreu DH Dubon/Caratini SS Pena I don't mean literally Dubon and Caratini at DH... Caratini plays 1B when Abreu DH. Dubon plays CF when Yordan DH, Chas to LF. Mix in some ABs for guys like Meyers. Then we don't lose DH by moving them into the field if there's an injury at catcher or another position. I like Pena in 9 hole. He's protected better by Altuve and if he gets on one of his hot streaks, the top of the lineup can take advantage. Tucker in the 2 spot with his steals is tempting... if Altuve doesn't get on Tucker can get himself into scoring position. With a base open a team might be tempted to pitch around Bregman. Downside is if 1B open and Bregman out, then Yordan can be pitched around. I think it's a minor issue since Tucker only stole 30 bases and the probability of that and Bregman getting out might only be 20 times in a season. I think there's still a move to be made for a solid bat at the deadline... i prefer Dubon as utility and Caratini is below average offense for anywhere other than catcher. Maybe a rental like Max Kepler as a lefty bat if the Twins are out of it.
There will be many lineups played. I'm hoping these are the main three: 2B Altuve RF Tucker 3B Bregman LF Alvarez 1B Diaz CF McCormick DH Abreu C Caratini SS Pena 2B Altuve RF Tucker 3B Bregman DH Alvarez C Diaz LF McCormick 1B Abreu SS Pena CF Meyers 2B Altuve RF Tucker 3B Bregman DH Alvarez LF McCormick 1B Abreu C Caratini SS Pena CF Meyers
Myers if not traded will get his shot this year. This is the lineup I think we start with: 2b Altuve 3B Bregman DH Alvarez 1B Abreu RF Tucker C Diaz LF Chas CF Myers SS Pena If Abreu starts out slow then I think coach is faster than Dusty at making adjustments. I'm hoping our bench bats look like this: Caratini, Dubon, somebody other than Singletary, and Kessinger
Dubon is not a better CFer than Meyers. If they want to go after an upgrade over Meyers sure, Dubon is not that guy. Dubon will be exactly what he should be, a great utility man who will start once or twice a week until an inevitable injury happens somewhere. I think they will use Caratini as more than just a 30-40 start backup catcher, and I suspect when both of them do play Caratini will be given catcher priority over Diaz.
Caratini hits righties better. Abreu hits righties worse than lefties. I can see an argument for 30-40 starts at 1B for Caratini just to keep Abreu fresh. He played a lot better after getting rest. Then probably another 30-50 starts at catcher to rest Diaz... they can DH Diaz for half those starts. You just take the chance you don't have an injury at catcher or have a 15 inning game; which seems less likely with the ghost runner now.
I like the Bregman in the 2 hole given his ability to work a count. If good Abreu is there that makes sense. If bad Abreu then you adjust as you say.
Yep. Meyers is the better CF provided their bats are somewhat close like it was last year. Caratini if he hits like he did last year will likely catch a lot with Diaz playing either 1B or DH. I'd rather DIaz play 1B. But even at DH, there are plenty of guys on the bench. I just don't see the big deal pinch hitting for a pitcher that most likely wasn't going to pitch another inning any way provided the injury isn't in the 1st three innings.
Altuve Bregman Yordong Tucker Abreu Diaz Chazzy fizz Pena Meyers Gotta have some legit protection behind Alvarez or he will just get pitched around
VS LHP 1)Altuve 80% 2B/20%DH 2)Alvarez 80% DH/20% LF 3)Bregman 3B 4)Tucker RF 5)Abreu 1B 6)McCormick 80% LF/ 20% CF 7)Diaz 75%/Caratini 25% C 8)Meyers 80% CF/ Dubon 20% 2B 9)Pena SS Vs RHP 1)Altuve 2B 2)Alvarez 65% DH/ 35% LF 3)Bregman 3B 4)Tucker RF 5)Abreu 80% 1B/ 10% DH / Diaz 10% C 6)McCormick 50% CF/ 50% LF 7)Diaz 65% C / Cabbage 20% 1B/ 15% LF 8)Meyers 50% CF/ Caratini 25% C/ Cabbage 25% DH 9)Pena SS Diaz and Caratini's starts will be determined by starting pitcher and consecutive games played/days off etc, not platoon splits. I want Pena in a set spot and protected by big bats Altuve and Yordan. If Cabbage can keep his K rate at 25ish % ( McCormick range) he can be a huge platoon contributor and insurance for Abreu.
The best protection is a man on 1B (or 1B and other bases). Tough to walk a guy when a single leads to a run, double 2 runs, or a homer may decide the game.
In Jeremy's case more fastballs or more specifically fewer breaking balls off the plate is what has been referenced as the objective. I think having Altuve and Alvarez behind him accomplishes this much more than people on base in front of him. They will throw him junk all day long if they aren't worried about who comes up behind him if he walks. Star hitter behind him - make him hit his way on. Weak hitter behind him - he can't score from first and the other guy will only advance 1 base.
You say this like Pena getting walks is bad. Pena will bat 9th a lot as he's one of the worst hitters on the Astros (i.e., placing the best 7 hitters up in the order will likely matter a lot more than where Pena bats). Pena has a 113 wRC+ with runners on base and an 89 wRC+ when empty. Pena walks more and strikes out less with runners on. Also, Pena bats better in the 7th and 8th spots in which he likely has little rear end protection, but better front end than he does 9th and 1st when he likely has great rear end protection, but less front end protection. Pena batting 2nd is roughly the same as him batting 7th and 8th, but he has both front end and rear end protection in that scenario. In conclusion, walks are good. Having good bats hitting behind you is good. Having guys on base is one of the best things for a hitter. Putting the best bats together is the best strategy and where Pena bats will likely be one of the last lineup decisions. There are other articles out there, but here is one... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-would-lineup-protection-look-like/
Altuve Tucker Yordan Bregman Chas Diaz Abreu/Meyers/Pena don't care Abreu/Meyers/Pena don't care Abreu/Meyers/Pena don't care Any lineup that doesn't feature both Tucker and Yordan batting in the first inning without any doubts is not ideal But, But, But you are batting two left handed hitters back to back Yep, who gives a Fk. They both mash lefties, and when the veteran dumb ass managers bring in a lefty to face them that lefty will also have to face Bregman either with men on or with the damage already done
My real preference is Bregman at lead off. 3B Bregman LF Alvarez 2B Altuve RF Tucker CF McCormick C Diaz 1B Abreu (or C2) DH Martinez/Cabbage/Singleton/Meyers/Dubon (or Abreu when C2 is playing 1B) SS Pena C2 is either catcher you want in the line-up when they aren't catching.
The "problem" is that this team has 4 players who should bat "in the first inning without any doubts"
And one that WILL, even though he should be in the middle of the line-up because of his OPS. Altuve USED TO BE the perfect lead off man getting on base at extreme levels, but with only modest power numbers. But as he developed, his OBP went down and his SLG went up making him more valuable as a middle guy. But that is sacrilege.
In the past 2 seasons, Altuve has had the 3rd and 4th best OBP of his 13 yr career. And last year he was only .017% off of his career high.
1. Altuve DH 2. Yordan LF 3. Bregman 3b 4. Tucker RF 5. Diaz C 6. Chas CF 7. Dubon 2b 8. Abreu 1b 9. Pena ss
