I agree in all honesty, out of the four incoming rookies, I only see two of them with somewhat realistic all-star potential. It's still a stretch. The Clutch Fans expectation level is probably on the ridiculous end of the scale, while most scouts and NBA GMs have a more realistic scale of what a possible player's potential is ...
Yeah that was kind funny. What the hell was I drinking last night when I wrote that Personally I would love to have a Danillo Chandler or a Wilson Galinari on the team!
If your just looking at odds based on Historical Data then the odds are what the odds are. Of course life is not lived in a vacuum so there are many variables. Different variables are obviously: 1. How deep is the draft. 2. How good of a talent evaluator is Daryl Morey 3. How good of a talent evaluator are the GM's drafting ahead of Daryl Morey. If its a really deep draft then you might find 3 or 4 all star level players outside of the top 10. But of course we really have to hope that Daryl Morey is a good enough talent evaluater to spot them when they are available. The one constant in most of the drafts is that all-star talent gets missed by teams so desperate to draft high ceiling players that they sometimes pass up other players that are much better all-star prosbects. Usually the reach involves a 7 footer that can't play but has enough athleticism some franchise is convinced they can turn him into the next Wilt or Kareem. For every Andrew Bynum that is a top 10 pick drafted on size and athleticism alone there are 3 or 4 Micheal Oluwakandis or Hasheem Thabeets or Kwame Brown. There was one draft were the the all the all-star talent was taken at the very beggining. The 2003 draft had 1. Lebron James, 3. Carmelo Anthony, 4. Chris Bosch, 5 Dwayne Wade and 6 Chris Kaman. Those were the only all-star caliber players selected in the draft that season and if you were not fortunate enough to have a top 6 pick you get the left overs. Only New Orleans managed to get a borderline all-star in David West outside of the top six and the Clippers can think the Pistons for reaching with Darko Milicic for having Chris Kaman available to them.
The odds are pretty good in a deep draft with Morey taking charge. In the last decade or so, if you do a team based analysis, I think some good evaluators like Spurs/Thunders beat those odds easily. I think all of our 4 rookies, Parsons and Patterson(even Marcus in thoery) have allstar 'potential' and it's likely 2-3 of them will turn out to be allstar level players. Remember Kmart and Lowry were considered allstar level players before allstar break when our record is good. Perception changes.
We need a franchise player, not for couple of allstar players. You can draft the allstar players outside of the top 10, but not a franchise player, Kobe was exception. I bet you look at the odds for the franchise players outsides of the top 10, you would get a different conclusion.
Yes this is pretty much true, but as you can see the odds of drafting a franchise player are so ridiculously low (outside of the number 1 pick) that such a mission is wasteful. The rockets should simply look to get an all-star player and flexibility. If they can do those to things while staying relatively young, then they could use some of the assets to trade for a franchise level player or clear space for one in other scenarios. As many have predicted and somewhat witnessed the the new CBA has heavy penalties for expensive contracts so clearing space and developing young talent is really the only thing a non-contender can do.
He make it look so effortless. lol He remind of my boy from HS, Onaje. Straight up silent killer steez on the court. Glad that bs trade never happened.
Excellent post crash! I don't think this data helps us determine whether or not D-Mo and Lamb are allstars. My reasons are two fold: 1) This past draft was exceptionally deep (hence #12 was likely a top 10 pick in the average draft) 2) D-Mo likely would have been a top 10 pick if he had been taken this year instead of last year That said, I think this is wonderful data to support the importance we must place on tanking. We need our pick and the Toronto pick to be top 10. And I'm sure that if we drill down further in your data, it would show, the higher the lotto pick, the better the odds of an allstar, within picks 2-10. Another interesting piece of analysis would be determining which teams have had the most sucesss drafting impact players with their picks. If the average team has a 1 out of 3 chance of drafting an allstar picking 2-10, I bet Morey would have slightly better odds given that he seems to be above average in his drafting abilities. great post crash!
I think a distinction needs to be made between a perennial lotto team, and the one that consistently hits it out of the park. San Antonio for instance has historically done more with their later picks that any other team. It scares the hell out of me that they will be picking in the lotto in the near future. More sharks in the water so to speak. Anyway, the odds of talent being available in a particular draft position are valuable but they don't speak to things like how deep the draft is and how good the teams picking up top have historically been in the draft. Sacramento on one hand would appear to be poor talent evaluators but they tend to have high lotto picks in relatively shallow draft classes. I would love to see a rating that assigns a value to each team, weighted towards recent picks since management changes in the NBA.
D-mo and lamb both will be (at least) all-stars and 1 will (probably) be a top ten player in the league...imo
Certainly there are variables that have to be considered in every draft and amount of talent available is probably the biggest of all variables. The 1996 draft is a great example of that because if you drafted between 13 and 20 you were probably going to get an all-star player. But that year is the exception to the rule. Is this years draft as deep in talent as the 1996 draft? Maybe.
It was like paying Derek Fisher a max deal because he hit a few game winners. He may have been pretty good on a championship team, but he wasn't good enough to warrant that kind of cash.
Assuming you mean superstar, I don't think you need a franchise player to win a championship. Kobe and Shaq lost to the Pistons in 04. The Pistons were a good team, but didn't have a superstar player. Besides Isiah Thomas, the late 80's Pistons really didn't have superstars and they won 2 championships - and I'm not a big fan of Isiah Thomas. They had all-star players, but I don't think they had 1 of the top 8 players in the league during that period. It's subjective... The point is, you can get by with having very good players that have chemistry. I see potential in these rookies, but it's going to take a while. Assuming they're not traded, I can see them making some noise in their 3rd year.
never starters because the fans vote. maybe in 5 years they will be mentioned but thats a stretch. Good to see you guys keep his aspirations for every rookie we draft for some reason
I tremendously appreciate your post crash. It is actually something that can be discussed. However, I have to question you math. The reason for this is that your calculations for how likely you are to draft an all-star from a selection of say the 2-10 picks or from the 11-16 picks is skewed because of the very fact that teams that had a selection from the 2-10 picks still had the opportunity to select one of the future all-stars that were picked after that group of picks. As a result, while your calculations can be used to judge the success that team have had in the past with picks in the brackets you choose, you cannot use those numbers to project future results because the first few brackets of picks have the opportunity to take any all star selected afterwards.
One thing that you can be assure of is that this team has zero chance of getting an all star caliber player from draft because of the way he deals with player. A drafted player needs at least 3-4 years to develop under the right coach and circumstance and I am not sure any player ever played longer than 4 years since Morey joined. The distrust between him and players is very obvious.
Has there ever been a case like ours in league history? Where one team drafts 4 top ten (or probable top ten) picks in back to back drafts? You know... If Lamb and White would have stayed another season: top ten If DMo and Jones would have come out a season earlier: top ten
