[War] Trump declares war on Iran for regime change

Eyal Zamir declares: The Israeli army is heading towards collapse... We will not hold out.

Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir announced that the army is heading towards collapse in light of the war with Iran and Hezbollah.

 

Here are the deets:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...e-in-on-itself-amid-manpower-shortage-report/

Interesting article. I didn't know the ultra-orthodox in Israel sought blanket military exemptions.

 

Can we put boots on the ground in mainland Iran? Sure, I guess. But before anyone gets gung-ho about the idea, take a flyover on Google maps. Toggle between map view, sat view, and the terrain layer. No matter what direction you invade from, you'll be dealing with high-elevation broken terrain that is all desert. There is very little food and water out there, which means your supply lines must be rock solid at all times.

Once you have troops inserted, what is the goal? To protect the Strait against missiles and drones, you must take the whole country because the range on those is more than just the coastal strip around the Strait. Also, if you limit troops to one area, they become sitting ducks. On the other hand, if you take the whole country, you are talking about something bigger than Texas with tons of country that will need constant patrolling. (Think Texas+, but it is all Big Bend topography on steroids.) Given that we don't have a naval presence in the Caspian Sea, getting to Tehran will be a long, long slog. It will make Afghanistan and Iraq look like a cakewalk. You'll also be drawing non-Iranian radicals to the cause, giving them a chance to prick the US. It's a hell of a good way to make a bunch of new bin Ladens.



I'm just a dumb guy on a laptop in Oregon and I can see this. I'm sure the folks in the Pentagon see much, much more.

 

what is there to miscalculate when the person you are negotiating with has never held their word and bombs during negotiations using it as a ruse?

 

Wow. I knew Bahrain was small but I did not know it was to that extent. There are so many odd/small countries out there.

 

Accounts/posts like this set off red flags for me. Do you think it’s credible? If they are reporting breaking news from Axios, where is the link?

 

Bahrain is the size of Honolulu without the rest of the Ouaho island
Riyadh area is the size of Dallas and Houston combined and 7-8million population
Tehran has equal or more population to NYC but a lot more dense

Qatar and UAE army/police are Indian/Pakistani national (mostly). If the economy collapse 9 out 10 will leave those places , both countries have 200k to 250k citizens and 1-3 trillions in hedge fund

 

The USS Boxer Amphibious Group which contains half of the Marines they sent (2500) as well as attack helecopters, landing craft (large and small) and LCACs, and jets is still 2 to 3 weeks away from being in position.

I guess they could be brought in as a follow on force to relieve, so it doesn't necessarily mean anything, but I wouldn't be super sure about that timeline. I think a couple of weeks is when I'd start looking unless The Don just can't wait and wants to go off half-cocked.

This video has a lot of relevant practical info:

 

The administration also leaked a video late last night about it. ****ing idiots

 

Agreed with all of that. Though calling it 'bigger than Texas' is underselling it. Iran is about 10% smaller than the combined land area of Texas, California, Montana, and New Mexico, four of the five largest US states not including Alaska.

 

There are 90 million people in Iran - it has dense and rough terrain in many places.

There are 9 million people in Israel.

There is absolutely no scenario where they could be successful in a ground invasion.

Also - contrary to what Israel claims, their soldiers are not really all that great.

They have very good intelligence because they pay poor Persians and Arabs for information -- and they use US weapons to kill people in the region --- but at actual hand to hand combat and clearing areas with people that are not malnourished or COS playing -- they would get their ass kicked.

Arguable, Iran has better commanders as well and many sympathetic Arabs in the region that would join the fight against Israel.

 

Intentional psychological games

Oh...I accidentally posted this.

 

Witkoff negotiating with Iran is doubling down on stupid. That guy has no business at that table.