https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/business/economy/jobs-report.html I was surprised this wasn’t posted by @NewRoxFan ;-) Overall it was an extremely strong report. Wage growth up to 3.1%, unemployment at 3.7%, participation rate increased by .2%, and we had GDP growth at 3.5%. I’m still a little worried about inflation but we will see how that shakes out. A few excerpts.... “The underlying fundamentals of the labor market are still really bright,” said Michelle Girard, chief United States economist at NatWest Markets. “It’s really the strongest part of the broader economy at the moment.” October marked the 97th consecutive month of job growth, extending an already record-making streak. Average monthly payroll increases have floated around the 210,000 mark over the past year. According to a report last week from the research arm of the payroll processing firm ADP, for instance, American workers are earning nearly $1 more per hour on average than they were a year ago. William H. Stoller, chairman and chief executive of Express Employment Professionals, which is based in Oklahoma City, said pay in light industrial and administrative jobs, for example, had climbed to $14.50 to $15.50 an hour, from roughly $13.60 a year ago. Most job applicants whom his firm encounters are looking for higher pay and more opportunities to advance. “What’s so impressive to me is there have been more jobs than workers every month since March of this year,” said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. Openings exceeded 7.1 million, according to the government’s most recent count. Help is not coming from abroad: The number of immigrant visas issued by the government has declined for two years in a row. Women are coming back into the work force at a much faster rate than men, the report showed. Over the past year, a net total of 1.4 million women have joined the labor force compared to 845,000 men. Job opportunities have finally begun rippling out to groups that were largely bypassed during much of the recovery: African-Americans, Hispanics, less-educated workers and people with disabilities have all seen their unemployment rates drop in recent months.
BUT LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE, RABBLE RABBLE No, but that is good. I mean ideally you don't trillion dollar deficits during economic upswings, and I would be hesitant to take comfort in this, while knowing we are sitting on an economic timebomb, but yea, cool, good to know people are working.
You really want to rely on me to get all your news? But... I mentioned it hours ago, in a previous post: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.php...ump-for-dividing-the-us.294201/#post-12044909
As long as inflation is outpacing wage growth, will middle class Americans feel this economic growth themselves?
yet, no mention of this continuing good economic data in his campaign rallies, where he continues to stoke fear w convenient racist and xenophobic (of non-whites) lies As James Carville had said, add nauseum, it's the economy stupid. on the flip side, this strong job report pretty much guarantees Fed Chair J Powell will call for a rate hike in Dec
Not that it matters, but I did find this funny because I can imagine this being a real conversation lol. And yes odds of a Fed rate hike in December are around 70% now. I'd expect that to trend higher since the market is very likely to move up over the next 3 months. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...asked-trump-not-to-tweet-job-data-prematurely White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow joked that he asked President Donald Trump not to tweet details of the October jobs report before they became public. Kudlow said he was surprised with the strength of the jobs report when he received it Thursday evening, adding that he wanted to discuss it with Trump before the Labor Department published the data the next morning. Kudlow called Trump while the president was traveling that night. “And he loved it,” Kudlow told the audience at an event at the Economic Club of Chicago, prompting laughter. “And then I said, Mr. President, please promise me you won’t tweet this out.” Kudlow’s comments refer to controversy that surfaced June 1 when Trump wrote on his Twitter account that he was “looking forward to seeing the employment numbers” that morning. The Labor Department report, which came out a little over an hour later, showed the economy had added more jobs in May than economists had forecast. Friday’s report for October also beat analyst expectations. This time around, however, Trump “was good to his word” and didn’t tweet ahead of time, Kudlow said. “But he was impressed with the numbers.”
You should. The economy was doing very well when he left office, quite amazing, considering the condition it was in when he was elected. What did trump do? He got a giant tax cut passed that is exploding the budget and will produce a huge increase in the national debt, he started a tariff war not only with China, but with our closest friends and allies, scaring the hell out of the markets in the process, and I hope you "enjoy" the inflation he is busy causing, along with the inevitable interest rates to fight it. That, and so much more. Good grief.
Wage growth is still overall a fraction of the actual growth in corporate profits. The only way to get rich now is to own means of production. That's why I take stock in everything I can get my hands on.
One, this is a continuation of the existing trend. Attached info below from Forbes illustrates this. Two, It is a known issue that industrial nations are heading toward conditions of employment shortage. China has relaxed it's One Child policy because current rates of population growth vs worker needs are on course to put the brakes on the expansion of their economy. Growth rate of the Chinese economy is absolutely fundamental to their program for ascendency in global economic position and in their justification for political, military, and cultural influence throughout the Pacific rim, across Asia, and increasingly in Africa. Impending labor shortage is the fundamental reason for (right of center) Merkel's acceptance of immigrants. She has been walking a tight rope between xenophobic resistance and labor needs. We, the US, are trending in the same direction. Essentially, only periods of sharp economic downturn are the only times we will see unemployment issues until the ascendency of automation capability overcomes labor need growth. From https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckj...nrZFkW5tIyRd8-SQQJzu_iAr3kUx8YKA#6d6268de1af3 Over 2 million jobs added per year for the past 8 years Below are the employment gains from President Bush’s last four years in office from just before the start of the Great Recession, through President Obama’s and so far through President Trump’s tenure. Bush’s last four years in office: 2005: 210,000 per month or 2.52 million for the year 2006: 175,000 per month or 2.09 million 2007: 96,000 per month or 1.15 million Last six months averaged 55,000 per month 2008: Negative 297,000 per month (recession takes hold) Lost 3.6 million jobs Obama’s eight years: 2009: Negative 422,000 per month Lost 5.1 million jobs (teeth of the recession) 2010: 88,000 per month or 1.05 million for the year 2011: 174,000 per month or 2.09 million 2012: 179,000 per month or 2.14 million 2013: 192,000 per month or 2.3 million 2014: 250,000 per month or 3 million 2015: 226,000 per month or 2.7 million 2016: 187,000 per month or 2.24 million Trump’s through September: 2017: 182,000 per month or 2.19 million Through September 2018: 208,000 per month or 2.5 million run rate U.S. employmentGraph courtesy of Joel D. Shore, based on employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment rate has been dropping for 9 years The unemployment rate shows pretty much the same progression from President Obama to President Trump . The unemployment rate started to climb the last two years of President Bush’s second term and substantially in Obama’s first year as the Great Recession that he had inherited was having a huge impact. Bush’s last four years in office: December 2005: 4.9% December 2006: 4.4%, decreased 0.5% December 2007: 5.0%, increased 0.6% December 2008: 7.3%, increased 2.3% Obama’s time in office December 2009: 9.9%, increased 2.6%(teeth of the recession) December 2010: 9.3%, decreased 0.6% December 2011: 8.5%, decreased 0.8% December 2012: 7.9%, decreased 0.6% December 2013: 6.7%, decreased 1.2% December 2014: 5.6%, decreased 1.1% December 2015: 5.0%, decreased 0.6% December 2016: 4.7%, decreased 0.3% Trump’s through September: December 2017: 4.1%, decreased 0.6% September 2018: 3.7%, decreased 0.4% The second graph that shows the U.S. unemployment rate continues on essentially the same path even with a slightly higher GDP growth rate (based on trailing four quarters growth). U.S. unemployment rateGraph courtesy of Jack Woida using Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED data
^fantastic post^ Thanks for summarizing the data here. Feel free to do so in other economic threads as well.
Where is bigtexxx with his participation rate spiel. The economy is doing pretty well. Why are we running a big ass deficit. This is the time you try to lower it for the next recession which will eventually come.
Trump can make reference to the continuing positive economic trends without mentioning the new job reports. while Ronald Reagan had campaigned on optimism, and Obama's theme was hope, Trump has shown us that he campaigns on fear, based on convenient racist and xenophobic (of non-whites) lies
Wage growth will catch up as long as the unemployment rate remains low. Companies will have to compete with each for workers
