Trump is on his Way to an Easy Win in 2020 - Moody's Model

Makes sense but this all hinges on “average democratic turnout”.

 

Makes sense given the historic misinformation campaign by the GOP and their media.

Dems keep tripping over themselves while the GOP amps up the dishonesty.

 

That would be great but no one should take anything for granted.

 

So the theory is based on average voter tournout yet every election since 2016 has had much higher than average voters.

Makes total sense.

 

If that makes you feel better about Trump's chances, then hold on to that. You can brag you were right if he wins, and use it as an excuse for not voting harder if you lose.

 

On the other side... Dems have shown they don’t fall in line like GOP voters...

The GOP is doing everything they can to wedge the party.

 

Exactly.

So this was a republican hit piece?

 

I mean the original poster is a republican hit piece.

 

The theory is based on economics. What it doesn't account for is that people don't have Trump for economic reasons - they hate him *personally*. In other words, the model is completely worthless, as we saw in 2018 when economics made no difference for the GOP. The OP is the same guy that was promoting Trump's Rasmussen polling outliers as factual despite everything else we knew from dozens of other polls. He's a troll.

 

Thanks for the big bold letters, I couldn't have understood without them.

 

"Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term."

im not challenging the logic behind the methodology, but its worth pointing out that all this stuff is going on right now and he is still well under 50% approval ratings.

the fact that the economy is doing as well as it is and he still has half the country saying impeach and remove from office is pretty telling about how voters feel about him. i think it proves that as far as trump goes, this projection model is pretty unreliable.

the sad thing is, its still entirely possible he wins a 2nd term.

 

OP is usually on point with this kind of thing, where's that Nobel Peace Prize again?

 

What a great new for you! Keep this up, no more fake news from Trump mouth.

 

not unrelevant to this thread...

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/26/politics/trump-cnn-impeachment-poll/index.html

 

The Stock Market is not the economy. Stock prices have been primarily effected by the GOP Tax cuts to billionaires and Corporations. They justified the tax cuts buy saying it would be invested in growing jobs and wages, but most large companies that got them are just buying back shares. By limiting the supply of stocks the price goes up, but it only creates value for those that already own the stock.

 

I fully agree with this analysis. This model is based on a typical President but as Trump says himself he’s not a typical president.

 

Placing Russian interference and the infamous Comey Letter aside, Trump won because of 77,000 votes in three states.

Am I to believe he has widened that margin of “victory” since 2016, as this article suggests?

I don’t know about that. I still think it’s about a 50/50 shot. Dems will likely win the popular vote, but who knows what the outcome will be due to the absurdity of the Electoral College. I get the general point, though, that Trump best maximizes his chances at re-election by having (or at least having the appearance of) a strong economy.

 

If Trump wins, then it's the will of the people.