The margin of error in the second poll (17%) was around 5%. Not sure if you're being sarcastic or not.
Turley on Trump's approval figures: https://jonathanturley.org/2020/01/...oll-shows-deep-and-widening-split-over-trump/ A Nation Divided: A New Poll Shows Deep And Widening Split Over Trump by jonathanturley January 22, 2020 A new Gallup poll shows just how deeply and irreconcilably divided we remain over President Donald Trump. Some 89 percent of Republicans approve of Trump. That is not just reaching the record levels of Dwight D. Eisenhower, but outpaces Jesus Christ who polls only a 68 percent share and he has two holidays. However, among Democrats, the rate falls to 7% percent — a difference of 82 percent. It is the largest gap ever recorded by Gallup in polling on American presidents. What should worry Trump is the low numbers among the key independent voters. Trump averages a 35% job approval among independents. However, overall, Trump is still at a 42 % job approval. That is not far off from Obama’s 44.5% or Reagan’s 44.9% in their third years. The same division is revealed on the question of impeachment. A CNN poll shows 51 percent are in favor of removing Trump but 45 percent opposed. That results seems skewed against Trump, but still shows a virtual even division given the margin for error. Another poll shows a virtual dead heat with 49 percent in favor of removal and 48 percent opposed. This leaves us in truly uncharted territory that defies conventional political analysis. Indeed, that may be the most lasting legacy of this president in reframing our political equations and understandings.
I will go out on a limb and say that this 51% of the electorate will not be voting for the Criminal in Charge in the fall of 2020.
Great question/point. I suspect getting estimates of the number of or % of voters registered as republicans would be available. The more interesting question would be "is the number of registered republicans growing, declining, or staying the same?"
Donald Trump isn't a popular President. He is the most divisive president in 150 years. Still it likely does not matter because of the Electoral College. As a positive, I will say that I have never seen someone who has more fanatical supporters than Trump. Many of them will do anything to help his re-election.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/245801/americans-continue-embrace-political-independence.aspx I'd love to see this graph updated for 2019. The first takeaway is that there has been a trend since we soured on W for people to identify more and more as Independent. My guess would be as partisanship has worsened people are less willing to identify with any party. Probably Independents look very strong in 2019 data given the impeachment proceedings. The second is that the Republicans got a little Trump bump from 26% to 28% in 2016 and he lost it again by 2018. I can't imagine it got any better in 2019 -- Trump presides over a shrinking party. Democrats have held on a little better, but they need a bump to feel safe.
Great find and analysis. My guess is a number of people are saying they are now "independents" because of trump's unpopularity, but will still vote for him (and all other republicans) once in the voter's booth. Much like we saw here (lots of people saying they didn't vote for him, naming some obscure 3rd party candidate who received a microscopic % of the vote).
Well, found some bad news while responding to your post. Here is a WaPo article considering and rejecting my theory: https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...opularity-among-republicans-appears-be-wrong/. And, it linked to the more recent Gallup data with the 2019 data I sought: https://news.gallup.com/poll/274694/party-preferences-steady-during-trump-era.aspx Looking at the latter, there's an uptick in Republican leaning and party affiliation in 2019 (Democrats stay flat). The article I linked theorizes that the wishy-washy Republicans were already squeezed out of the party by the Bush terms so that by the time Trump announced the party was already full of would-be sycophants (ok, WaPo was a little more balanced in their language). That conflicts with my anecdotal experience given the number of once-Republicans I know who left the party over Trump. But that's what the numbers show. Maybe every disgusted Republican I know was offset by some former Democrat who has a thing for corrupt and brutal leaders.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/284156/trump-job-approval-personal-best.aspx Trump Job Approval at Personal Best 49% An amazing number considering tomorrow the United States Senate will vote on the 2 articles of impeachment.
Funny, don't see trump bragging about his rasmussen numbers lately.. Daily Presidential Tracking Poll https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_apr10 Right Direction or Wrong Track 39% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu..._of_america/right_direction_wrong_track_apr06
From one of your trusted sources. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/donald-trump-gallup-approval-polling/index.html
