Spoiler (trade value chart via drafttek.com) With all the talk about the Texans trading their #1 pick, and the speculation that the top QBs are going to slide, I wanted to get a general idea for what options we might have in these two scenarios. In the first section I will take 4 teams that could be interested in trading for the first pick and find a package of picks that equals the value of that pick. In the second section I will be doing the same thing only I will be looking at what packages it would take for us to move up to various spots in the draft. There are obvious limitations to this method, but for a general sense I think this is helpful. Trading Down From #1 ATL Option 1 1st (6th overall) 2nd (37th) Next years 1st* = 3,130 pts Option 2 1st (6th) 3rd (68th) 4th (103rd) Next years 1st* = 2,938 pts *I used 1000 pts for ATL's value for next years first rounder. Vegas has ATL wins over/under at 8 for next year, so I'm using the 16th pick here. That should be pretty conservative for the Texans sake given the uncertainty of where the pick will be and how talented this draft is. JAX 1st (3rd overall) 2nd (39th) 3rd (70th) = 2,950 pts CLE 1st (4th overall) 1st (26th) 2nd (35th) = 3050 pts BUF 1st (9th overall) 3rd (73rd) 4th (109th) Next years 1st* = 3001 pts *I used 1350 pts here, projecting the 9th pick again, based on their over/under of 6.5 wins. Trading Up Into the 1st Rd I'm not trying to predict which teams are interested in trading down here, this is just to give a general idea of what we would have to give up to move up to certain spots. These are spots where we could have a clean trade without fillers. The spots in between would have 4th or 5th rounders coming or going to even it up. What would it cost? 10th overall: Next years 1st* + 2nd 17th overall: Next years 1st* + 3rd 21st overall: 2nd + 3rd 24th overall: Next years 1st* 28th overall: 2nd + 4th *I'm using 740 pts, projecting the 24th pick next year, based on the Texans jumping from their current over/under of 8.5 to 9 wins.
I think any discussion for the Texans first rounder this year start with 3 first round picks no matter what the points system says.
They may start with 3 1st rounders but it certainly won't end with 3. They're trading up for a defensive player and NO ONE ELSE according to you. So no, we won't be getting that for just Clowney.
Your poll is crap. It's a false choice between trading down and selecting Clowney. There are plenty here who want the Texans to draft Manziel. The poll should have been trade down or not trade down.
I don't even see that as an option. If you want Manziel take the picks that would come with a trading out of the top spot.
i would trade down but not past Cleveland.. i wish they loved clowney..that trade would've happened already if they did
If he is available. Might or Might not, but there is a strong indication that lot of teams will try to move up ahead of us nab the QB they like. Don't have to TB, but if they like TB than I don't think they might want to risk and wait on him??? lol that's the best I can come up with. Just don't know what the Texans are ever thinking in the draft.
I guess it would just depend on who was left and who they really valued. If there was enough people left on the board I think they save the picks
I would like any of those trades and all of those teams may just be picking in the top ten next year (maybe except for Cleveland).
yeah its hard to actually know how the draft will play out and there can be numerous ways. Heck they might pass on QB even 2.1 and pass on trading down by just picking up a guy who slid out of 1st that they thought highly of. I definitively wouldn't' mind that either, but that narrows down our choice at QB. The last 24 hours are the worst hours.
It was more civil the further from the draft it was though. Things got crazy the closer to the draft it got as they started to realize that the Texans weren't going to go with the prospect they had been hoping.
Depends on Cleveland who picks right after SD. If they go QB at # 4 there's a good chance he slides to us at 2.1. I've read rumors they like Watkins though at # 4 and could likely pick up a QB with their second pick.
Even if they do go with a QB with their second pick, there's no way of knowing that Bridgewater is even on their radar. In a division like the AFC North that is known for really tough style football, going with a tiny framed QB could be a really bad idea.
Yep that's the risk you take. I was thinking of creating a new thread and a poll asking if ALL the QBs were still available at 2.1 who would you take? Assuming Clowney at 1.1.
