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[Trade Simulator] FiveThirtyEight's version

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by steddinotayto, Oct 14, 2021.

  1. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    It doesn't take into account salaries so CBA be damned. However, it does give you a predictive model as to how a specific trade would impact the team's chances.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-trades-2022/

    Fun takeaways:

    1. Rockets, according to fivethirtyeight, are projected to be a 19-win team. By trading John Wall for Ben Simmons that number jumps...to 23.

    2. If we take it a step further and do a Wall/Gordon/Wood/House swap for Simmons and Harris that number climbs to....24

    3. Hypothetically, if Harden is sick of Irving and wants to be closer to his restaurant..er...his former team a Harden for Wall swap would increase the projected win total from 19 to 31 wins.
     
  2. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    what if we swap wall for simmons and trade for kyrie?
     
  3. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    What I did:

    1. Swap Simmons for Wall
    2. Trade Wood and Gordon for Irving

    Win total prior to trades: 19
    Win total after trades: *drumroll*
    20 even with Kyrie and Simmons
     
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  4. TimDuncanDonaut

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    What if we swap Wall for Harden? :p
     
  5. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Read the first post again?
     
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  6. TimDuncanDonaut

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    More than Ben, cool.
     
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  7. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    At 31 projected wins, you're talking about knocking on the door of a play-in team. Since the model can't quantify or factor in what kind of impact Harden would have on a big like Wood or role players like Brooks or JC (and we do have pretty solid evidence that he can make players around him better), Harden should be able to carry this team to at least the 10th seed even with 4 1st round rookies playing significant minutes. :)
     
  8. ElPigto

    ElPigto Member
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    @D-rock will not be happy. Can you swap Simmons for Wall and cut EG from the roster? I'd like to somewhat humor @Reeko
     
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  9. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    23-59 record here we come!
     
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  10. ElPigto

    ElPigto Member
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    :cool::cool:
     
  11. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    that trade simulator is harsh…Kyrie, Simmons, and the remaining bricklayers would be a decent regular season team assuming health for Kyrie

    cutting EG from the roster would be an early Christmas present…watching EG play is simply not good for the mind, body, and soul
     
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  12. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    Kyrie and Simmons for Wood and Wall?

    Sign me up, especially if we can get Isaiah Joe as a throw in.

    Both Simmons and Kyrie are head cases however.
     
  13. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    I got Kyrie and Simmons as a play-in team…supporting cast would be too weak, Silas’ coaching is sus, and I think the locker room would be a sh*tshow
     
  14. Juxtaposed Jolt

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    I'm a bit surprised a Wall-for-Harden swap would only be worth +12 wins.

    Maybe I'm biased, but I feel like getting Harden on this team (again) would make this team go from bottom feeder to a team with HCA. A top 4 team in the West, as opposed to just maybe qualifying for the play-in.
     
  15. HardenVolumeOne

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    keep in mind harden and durant played 44 and 35 games respectively so their raptor numbers will not look at as nice
     

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