Nobody said the league wants the jazz to win the series. It’s all about prolonging it. A game 3 win from the jazz: - keeps their fans interested (no embarrassing empty seats on tv, keep the owners happy from tickets/concessions) - keeps neutral fans tuned in because of some actual drama (higher tv ratings) - Gives talking heads tons of fodder “it’s a series now!”, “Have harden and the rockets been EXPOSED?!?” (Keeping broadcast partners TNT, ESPN, etc happy) Also, every extra game is straight up bonus money in the form of extra tv revenue (more commercials, keeping broadcast and advertising partners happy) and extra ticket revenue. Obviously 6 games > 4. And depending on how far you want to go with your league conspiracy theories, one could see how, from the standpoint of the league wanting the warriors to win it all again, it makes sense to keep the Rockets playing longer in the first round, more fatigue, more chance of another hamstring blowout. ESPECIALLY now that the warriors will be going at least 5 with the clippers. In fact, I would argue that in a series that has been so one-sided so far, there’s even less of a downside (from the leagues standpoint) to putting your thumb on the scale to help the jazz in a game or two. If everyone assumes the Rockets will ultimately win the series, then stealing a game or two from them could be rationalized as a “no harm, no foul” situation. Even just keeping a game or two closer so people don’t turn it off early or leave the stadium would be a win for them. Can you really not see how the league’s interests could benefit from individual games being closer or the series being extended a game or two for any of these or other potential reasons?
I have no knowledge of how odd-making works. I would not be surprised if they had some kind of predictors, according to historical betting patterns of a large number of betters, of how people fall on both sides of the line. I don't know how that in principle is different from the so-called 100% objectivity. "The Stories" is just one more set of facts for them to put into consideration.
I don't really understand Vegas' logic here. If you balance out the lines from the previous two games (Houston -7) with this game (Utah -3), that seems to hint at Vegas thinking Houston is only about a 2-point favorite against Utah on a neutral site. But given the absolutely domination of the Jazz we just saw in Houston, shouldn't they be giving the Rockets a little more credit than that? I would have been OK with a push or even Utah -1, but Utah -3 just seems crazy to me, even with their backs against the wall playing at home.
sports gambling and logic don't typically go hand in hand. there's a ton of reasons the lines are what they are. sometimes they're on point, sometimes they're completely off. if it was so easy everyone would win. oddmakers are trying to make people think and its obviously doing so as evident in this thread.
@heypartner @Nook the only game we lost to them last year was a foster brothers production where surprise surprise, both harden & paul were in foul trouble w/ 5 apiece so not entirely sure this is relevant...
Smart bettors look for weaknesses in the lines. Better bet quick if you want any action because the line will swing super quick before tip off. This is a head scratcher for me. Playing in Utah is a different animal but the Rox have had success there.
I will be betting on that -3 all day. Houston is the Jazz worst matchup due to how they abuse Gobert. Easy money there.
Some factors to consider: - They are playing at home in front of home crowd. Home court matters. - They were still the number 2 defense in the league for a reason - Jazz are down 0-2 so they will be playing with a lot more desperation - Mitchell and Ingles have largely underperformed, so they are expected to have at least one good game soon - As a team, they shot 35.6% from distance for the season and it stands to reason that they won’t keep shooting under 20%
Let's be honest. . . .of the BIG THREE We have to most competent opponent Clippers are good but I would not pick them over Utah in a 7 game series Detroit . . .I would not pick them over Duke or University of Virginia Rocket River
I wonder what the difference in total revenue would be between every playoff series ending in a sweep, vs every series going to 7? It must be astronomical.
Jazz were a very good home team and a very mediocre road team this year - as were the Rockets. So it's not surprising to give them a 3 point spread
Not saying this is true, but from pure economics wouldn't NBA always want more games? Seems like if everything was predetermined we would have all 7 games series. Maybe the TV deal is more complicated than that.
It's gonna be tough. We will get the split coming back home. G3 we will win by single digits. G4 we get complacent and lost
our role players won't shoot as well in Utah as they did in G2. the jazz will shoot better than they have in the first two games. home court swing makes a difference, but defense should always travel with you. the rockets were a very good defensive team post all star break and I expect that to continue even if we have some offensive struggles in Utah. we also have the most unguardable human on the planet to take care of us on offense. it will be closer but I'm betting on a sweep. we're just a terrible matchup for the jazz.
What is going on in this thread?!? You’re ok with a -1 but a -3 is crazy???? -3 is not ridiculous. If you feel so outraged by it then bet on the Rockets, hell bet them moneyline for the even bigger payout and enjoy. That’s what I’m gonna do. Just a matter if I wanna bet light or heavy.
More games = more gate, more TV revenue. Versus not having those games. I agree with you that I just want to start the Warriors series already, but there are reasons why the NBA would want a series to be extended. @Jebus, up above, goes into many more reasons beyond that. Good post. +135 seems like decent value for the Rockets.
The line is correct. Jazz were 29-12 at home and Rockets 22-19 on the road in the regular season. Plus Jazz being 2 games down makes this game more important to them. This is how lines work. That said, the line is correct doesn't mean Rockets won't beat them. I have taken Rockets and I am pretty confident we will beat the Jazz by a comfortable margin.
