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The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Dec 4, 2016.

  1. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    That's a good point. Despite all the fuss, Brexit is a country exiting the EU in what is probably the most orderly manner imaginable. However, before this all settles down, it is likely that at least one other country leaves the EU, and probably several. I like Italy so it saddens me to say that Italy is one of the leading candidates for this honor. Greece and Italy could be forced out by circumstances, in what could be a not very orderly exit at all.
     
  2. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The British House of Commons voted yesterday by a vote of 461 votes to 89 to approve the triggering of Article 50 by March 31, 2017. This was an amendment to a motion by Labour moving that the Prime Minister release more information on the government's plan for pursuing negotiations with the EU, which PM May has agreed to do.

    The House of Commons also voted to in favor of Labour's motion to publish the government's "plan," although it remained unspecified how much information that might consist of. This was not a formal binding vote, which would apparently require the House of Lords to vote as well. But it is hard to imagine the Lords taking a stand on this contrary to these two votes and the outcome of the Brexit referendum last June.

    At the same time, the UK Supreme Court is completing four days of hearings on this issue, with all 11 members meeting to hear a case for the first time since the UK Supreme Court was formed in 2009 (this is a very new institution). By comparison, the US Supreme Court would typically have about 90 minutes of public testimony, and then that's it. These guys have gone on all day for four straight days.

    You can see some of it here, at least today you can:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-37976580

    This has all been very lawyerly and not very exciting for those used to watching the comparative drama stars in Congress or even the UK House of Commons. Experts following this believe the Judges have been about equally harsh on both sides and that no clear verdict is apparent at this point. The UK Supreme Court's verdict is due in January of 2017.
     
    #42 MojoMan, Dec 8, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2016
  3. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    British election exit poll points to unexpected trouble for May that could test her hold on power

    British Prime Minister Theresa May was locked Thursday in a surprisingly tight contest with Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn that could test her grip on power, according to exit polls released after voting ended in the country’s second parliamentary election in the past three years.

    The results, if confirmed, would mark a stunning setback for May, who had called the vote to strengthen her hand before Brexit talks but could emerge grievously weakened.

    The exit poll showed May’s Conservative Party winning 314 seats in Britain’s 650-member Parliament, leaving it short of the total needed for a majority and 17 behind the number it won in 2015. The Labour Party was projected to win 266 seats in Parliament, up 34 seats from the results two years ago.

    The results raise questions about whether either major party will have enough support to form a government without resorting to forming a coalition — a scenario known as a hung parliament.

    What Britain’s next government could look like if exit polls turn out to be correct
     
  4. Major

    Major Member

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    Along with France and England moving back towards a pro-Europe stance, Italy just rejected the populists as well. Looks like Brexit and Trump were huge wakeup calls for sanity there just as they have been here.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/italys-5star-movement-suffer-setback-in-local-elections-beppe-grillo/

    5Stars suffer setback in Italy’s local elections

    ROME — Italy’s populist 5Star Movement suffered an unexpected defeat Sunday, failing to gain ground in mayoral elections held in around 1,000 towns and small cities across the country.

    The Euroskeptics were hoping to build momentum during the local vote, which was the last relevant electoral test in Italy before a general election, which must be held by the spring of 2018.


    But according to projections, the anti-establishment party of former comedian Beppe Grillo was excluded from the runoffs in all the big cities, with mainstream parties’ candidates prevailing.

    “It looks like a very bad night for the 5Stars,” said Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of research firm Teneo Intelligence.

    ...

     
  5. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    I wonder why the electorate is pro Europe again if true. It's easy to put this on trump but I like to think people 3-4k miles away aren't entirely preoccupied with what we do.
     
  6. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    No, but when Americans choose a deal that stinks as bad as Trump for President does, European countries can smell it across the Atlantic and what to stay away from anything with even a hint of that stench on it.
     
  7. Major

    Major Member

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    I would suspect they are seeing the consequences of voting out of blind anger and frustration (both here and in England). It was a big wakeup call that crazy people actually CAN win and do have negative repercussions. Basically, it answers the "well, let's vote for the other guy because things can't be any worse than what we have now, right?" question.
     
    Deckard likes this.
  8. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Anybody who bought the "it can't get any worse" argument is too stupid to vote.

    Politicians who use that line while campaigning are the worst kind of scumbags.
     
  9. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Who is worse? The scumbags in office, or the ignorant voters who put them there? Mr. trump squats in the Oval Office with the help of a foreign power, while his ardent supporters ignore an assault on our democracy.
     
  10. arno_ed

    arno_ed Contributing Member

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    Trust me Trump and the brexit were a huge wake up call for all the people thinking about voting for the populists.

    On top of that everything Trump did in regarding to the eu and the paris agreement made many people believe it is important for Europe to stick together.

    So while I really hate Trump (and I do not use that term lightly) I love what he is doing for the EU.
     
  11. calurker

    calurker Contributing Member

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  12. Rashmon

    Rashmon Contributing Member

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    While I believe you're right in regards to European voters getting the wake up call, I'm not so sure about our own GOP electorate. Let's hope so...
     
    FranchiseBlade likes this.
  13. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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    Trump's base would vote for him again in 2020 no matter what, but the people who thought Hillary was just as bad as Trump or the ones that it does not matter who you vote for will be voting against him and maybe GOP in 2018 and 2020, we shall see.
     
  14. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    5Stars sounds like the name of a street gang.
     
  15. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    Or a late 70s early 80s era Shaw Brothers Kung-Fu flick.
     
  16. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    Sadly, I fear you're correct.
     
  17. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    5 stars sounds like a constellation!
     
  18. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    trump is uniting Europe. Wonder if he will list that as an accomplishment
     
    justtxyank likes this.
  19. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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    one year ago

    this is so good

     
  20. dmoneybangbang

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    It seems many people are realizing that the Brexiters were the dog that finally caught the car.

    Populism is scary because it's so emotional.
     

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