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The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Dec 4, 2016.

  1. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Also, here is the live broadcast from Sky News, in case anyone is interested. They have John Bercow on as an election night analyst:

     
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  2. malakas

    malakas Member

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    This is very worrying for the UK. The SNP isn't just a Remain party but a nationalistic one that actively pursues independence. Lets say someone was just a Remainer Unionist..if they also had to resort to the SNP, what does it say about the people of Scotland? Have also the moderate ones gave up on the union?
     
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  3. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Contributing Member

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    Perhaps. He has no principles so he could go anywhere with this. But at the end of the day, there's more to this than Brexit. He has to also find answer to the future trading relationship with the EU (and the rest of the world) so he's going to have to do more than a no-deal. Delusion has to give way to reality at some point.
     
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  4. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Great point. The SNP will withhold their support from Labour for almost anything in exchange for a commitment to another Scottish independence referendum. It is not a governable arrangement for Labour, or for any potential leftist coalition for that matter.
     
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  5. malakas

    malakas Member

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    He has declared that he won't extend the 11month transition period.

    With a very hard Brexit on the works, and with such new power in the SNP almost sweeping Scotland, what is your take on the union? Is it far fetched to think that there is clear danger?
     
  6. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Contributing Member

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    It speaks to how Brexit is ironically breaking the Union. The Tories and Labour are now irrelevant in two of the four nations of the UK. Remainer Unionists really only have the Lib Dems to turn to in Scotland.

    If Brexit goes as badly as I think it will, you'll see a Scottish referendum and probably a yes vote at that. On the other hand, now that the DUP is irrelevant, I fully expect Boris to sell out Northern Ireland and keep them tied to the EU single market and customs union. All that talk of avoiding a customs border across the sea will go away.
     
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  7. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    There is not going to be a second Scottish referendum for at least another five years. With this majority and with the SNP holding only perhaps 55 seats, it will not pass the UK Parliament.
     
  8. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Do we have any result on how the DUP did in NI? As usual the english media so far haven't even said anything about it.
    Now they are discussing on the SKY how Westmister is going to block Hollyrood of having a second referendum.

    Maybe we will have another Basque situation
     
  9. malakas

    malakas Member

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    The UK was established on the union of England and Scotland. They weren't an enslaved nation like te Irish or the Welsh. So I don't know the legal situation on how the english can keep blocking it.
     
  10. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Contributing Member

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    The broadcasters don't run exit polls in Northern Ireland. You have to wait for election results to know. But even if the DUP outperforms the last election, it won't matter. The Tories no longer need them. The Tories are more or less winning a majority on England alone. Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland will have little to no say in this.
     
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  11. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    They did not block it. There was a referendum in 2014 and the people of Scotland voted to stay in the union. The Prime Minister at that time was David Cameron. He agreed to the referendum and it was held and the proposal was voted down.

    The legal situation is that the UK Parliament must approve a referendum for it to be legal. The Tories do not support a second Scottish independence referendum. With an estimated 86 seat majority, it is just not going to happen.
     
  12. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Contributing Member

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    The current government clearly won't offer a second referendum. But if Labour (or I guess the Lib Dems if Labour just falls apart) manages to get a minority government down the road, they'll need the SNP to prop them up and that's where the second referendum comes in. If the SNP keeps running the table in Scotland, someone will take them on an offer for a referendum.

    If no deal Brexit is implemented, you'll see the same thing happen in Northern Ireland. But I think everyone has an interest in keeping the border open in Northern Ireland so I don't think Northern Ireland will end up with a border. Leo Varadkar has been reasonably confident that they'll figure out the Irish Border situation.
     
    #2192 geeimsobored, Dec 12, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
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  13. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Nigel Dodd of the DUP just lost to John Finucance of Sinn Fein in Belfast West.

    This is apparently the biggest upset so far in this election.
     
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  14. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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  15. TheresTheDagger

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  16. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The conservatives have won an outright majority in Parliament by winning 326 seats. They are expected to win around 50 more, but it will take a while to get the complete final results.

    This was the critical threshold that had to be achieved to get Brexit done. And so it has been.

    Congratulations to the people of the UK for this magnificent accomplishment. You should all be very proud.
     
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  17. malakas

    malakas Member

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    hahaha yes! Out with the garbage. At least the people of Belfast aren't completely blind.
    All these older ex paramilitary fanatics who have been poisoned by the hatred and the terror and still live in the Victorian era ethics, should go and replaced by the newer generation.
     
  18. Ubiquitin

    Ubiquitin Contributing Member
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    No excuse not to complete Brexit then. They should Hard Exit if they cannot come up with an agreement soon.

    I would not be surprised however if Scotland decides to leave the UK or NI is absorbed by Ireland in the years following Brexit.

    I honestly do not understand the appeal of the Tories in the UK, but I also have no clue what Labor is trying to achieve either outside of their stated positions on Brexit.
     
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  19. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost be kind. be brave.
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    This election doesn't change the central problem associated with Brexit.

    And now not only will the UK leaving the EU cost them Northern Ireland, it appears it will cost them Scotland as well.

    Brexit simply isn't going to happen. Prepare for this to be a funny footnote in a history book that the UK has been "leaving" the EU since 2016.
     
  20. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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    May be it is good for England to go without NI and Scotland. If Brexit is good for England, great! If it turns out badly, too bad. You live with your decisions. We will see the result in the future.
     
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