Why would that be? They offered Keuchel the QO which is more than Morton is making this year. Isn't it just as probable that the choice was Morton or Keuchel?
There’s no way to know for sure, but given that the deals Brantley/Morton signed are real and very close in value, it makes more sense to me that the choice was between those two. Not only did Houston not sign Keuchel, the QO was rejected before they signed Brantley, so the choice could still have been only one of those 3 guys.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Valdez and James as a tandem for the 5th starter now that both guys are throwing really well and Martin has floundered. This is the pre-deadline 40 man roster I would go with (assuming everybody is healthy): CF Springer LF Brantley 3B Bregman 2B Altuve DH Alvarez SS Correa RF Reddick 1B Gurriel C Chirinos Bench: Diaz, Marisnick, Stassi, Kemp Rotation: Verlander, Cole, Miley, Peacock, Valdez/James Bullpen: McHugh, Devenski, Harris, Rondon, Pressly, Osuna Traded for lottos: White Optioned: Stassi, Reed, Mayfield, Fisher, Straw, Rodgers, Armenteros, Martin, C Perez, Abreu, Deetz, Guduan, 3 open spots for callups or waiver claims 60 day IL: McCullers, Smith (Devenski would be optioned when Smith is healthy)
Charlie will always be a legend around here as he should be. Hell, his Astros World Series cap is in the Hall of Fame. He's an immortal Astro. However, if you're Luhnow, don't you think your thoughts at the end of last season went something like the following? "I picked up an aging pitcher with a history of injuries, and it worked it out phenomenally for most of that time including netting us a ring. But then towards the end of the second year, the injuries started to show up again, and Charlie's two years older now, and he's going to want a good chunk of change to stay..." It's not the Charlie Morton at the beginning of the season you're paying for; it's the one at the end. I think Luhnow assessed that THIS time through, THIS Charlie Morton with THIS history of injuries was too much of a risk at THESE prices. Luhnow is smart. And if it did actually come down to a choice between Morton or Brantley as @Snake Diggit has posited, Luhnow's a genius.
http://www.astroscounty.com/2019/06/the-astros-and-solo-home-runs.html The Astros and Solo Home Runs The Astros have allowed 82 home runs (going into Tuesday, June 4's game against Seattle). 59 of them have been by solo home run. That's 72% of the Astros' home runs allowed coming with the bases empty. But that's not what the question asked. They have allowed 212 runs total in 2019, so 27.8% of their runs allowed have been via a solo home run. Houston: 212 runs allowed / 59 solo homers = 27.8% New York (AL): 234 runs allowed / 49 solo homers = 20.9% St. Louis: 264 runs allowed / 53 solo homers = 20.1% Philadelphia: 274 runs allowed / 55 solo homers = 20.1% Baltimore: 359 runs allowed / 71 solo homers = 20.1% Miami: 263 runs allowed / 50 solo homers = 19.0% Cleveland 250 runs allowed / 47 solo homers = 18.8% San Diego: 262 runs allowed / 49 solo homers = 18.7% Tampa: 189 runs allowed / 35 solo homers = 18.5% Chicago (AL): 295 runs allowed / 52 solo homers = 17.6% Anaheim: 301 runs allowed / 52 solo homers = 17.3% Detroit: 299 runs allowed / 51 solo homers = 17.1% Cincinnati: 225 runs allowed / 38 solo homers = 16.9% Seattle: 384 runs allowed / 65 solo homers = 16.9% Minnesota: 238 runs allowed / 40 solo homers = 16.8% Arizona: 241 runs allowed / 40 solo homers = 16.6% Atlanta: 283 runs allowed / 47 solo homers = 16.6% Milwaukee: 286 runs allowed / 47 solo homers = 16.4% Arlington: 296 runs allowed / 47 solo homers = 15.9% New York (NL): 291 runs allowed / 46 solo homers = 15.8% Toronto: 286 runs allowed / 45 solo homers = 15.7% San Francisco: 300 runs allowed / 47 solo homers = 15.7% Los Angeles: 233 runs allowed / 36 solo homers = 15.5% Colorado: 303 runs allowed / 47 solo homers = 15.5% Oakland: 266 runs allowed / 41 solo homers = 15.4% Boston: 284 runs allowed / 42 solo homers = 14.8% Chicago (NL): 249 runs allowed / 36 solo homers = 14.5% Kansas City: 310 runs allowed / 39 solo homers = 12.6% Washington: 298 runs allowed / 37 solo homers = 12.4% Pittsburgh: 313 runs allowed / 36 solo homers = 11.5%
Looking at that chart, it's crazy that we're #2 in fewest total runs allowed, but #3 in most solo HRs given up (behind the two worst pitching staffs in baseball). So is this luck or something sustainable?
Some guesses... We're at the top of the HR totals on offense as well, so that may be partially attributable to MMP's shallow corners. Guys will also probably swing for the fences more often knowing that. Would love to see the home/away splits on that, and on parks w/ shallow outfields. We also allow fewer hits. Thus, when someone goes yard, it's more likely no one is on base. This is one reason why AJ does not tolerate walks, and why Martin was sent down.
Without having any facts to back this up, there is certainly the chance that we simply pitch differently with the bases empty. Solo HR don't kill you, walks creating traffic does. Attack the zone with the bases empty and be a little more fine with men on.
Some luck, some preventing baserunners, some bad luck that the ball is extra juicy this year. Teams have a hard time stringing together hits against Astros.
Verlander gave up 2 or 3 fly balls in Oakland that would have been gone in Minute Maid last time out. Dimensions and juicy balls play a part imo.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=HOU&year=2019#hmvis_extra::none We have given up 48 HR's at home, 35 on the road.
Looks like the Valdez experiment is just about over. Maybe Urquidy is up sooner than expected, maybe James. Things are getting a bit desperate, given both White and Stassi had to pitch, they can't afford another Valdez 3-inning start. That fifth starter is really hurting them this year, between the overtaxed relievers and the refusal to do something about Kemp/White instead of keep that eighth reliever.
With Peacock out, July 2 is an open rotation spot, which is Urquidy's next scheduled start. I'd prefer Urquidy over Sneed in getting that start and the last one on July 7 before the All-Star break.
Well, looks like Sneed may be up next in the revolving door of futility. Thankfully this will all be over with just a couple more of these wild adventures at the #5 spot before the inevitable trade. It's crazy how things could not have gone any worse at the #5 spot. Is there an easy way to find out the stats for the #5 starters? ERA must be something like 6+. I also wonder if the Astros are the only team with three potential starters out with Tommy John (McCullers, Martin, Martes), much less two. I hope that's not a trend resulting from the system trying to squeeze out that much more mph or spin. One more TJS for a potential starter within the year and I'm saying it's not a coincidence.
We need to add TWO more starters by the trade deadline. I don't trust any one we have besides JV and Cole. I would go get Bumgardener and a young guy under team control like Stroman or Syndegaard
Excel using ERs, innings by the replacement starters plus Peacock before he was moved to the 4th starter role.
