[Simple Stats] Three Point Shooting of the Core Five

Jontro · Mar 4, 2017

in the matrix, i don't see numbers, i see humans and objects.

heypartner · Mar 5, 2017

@yixiixiy

Vs Memphis
Anderson was 1-7
Gordon was 6-9

Your discovery of their big negative correlation continues.

topfive · Mar 5, 2017

yixiixiy said: ↑

Did some basic data crunching on the number of 3pt made by the core-five:

Harden (H), Anderson (A), Gordon (G), Ariza (Z) and Beverly (B)

A few simple results based on this empirical data

- Of the 62 games so far, HAGZB accounted for an average of 12.8 out of an average of 14.7 made threes per game (87%).

- Assuming the 62 games are identical and independent samples (which clearly they are not), HAGZB will make > x in total threes with y probability:

x y
12 59.23%
15 30.12%
18 9.86%

- The made threes have the following correlation matrix:

H Z A G B
H 100% 1.5% -6.8% 9.4% 8.6%
Z 1.5% 100% -1.5% 4.3% 5.8%
A -6.8% -1.5% 100% -12.0% 0.8%
G 9.4% 4.3% -12.0% 100% 13.8%
B 8.6% 5.8% 0.8% 13.8% 100%

It's interesting how Ariza's threes are either uncorrelated or negatively correlated with the rest of the HAGZB. Note that the higher the correlation among the made threes, the higher (in general) the probability of large total made threes (but also the higher the probability of small number of made threes). If our goal is to maximize the total number of threes made, we might want to explore the option of avoiding playing G and A for too long.

* Not adding Lou Williams due to small sample of games played with the others.
Click to expand...

Props to OP for the sturdy work!

don grahamleone · Mar 5, 2017

I love data, but without meaning it's useless.

OP, what you're saying isn't wrong, but being able to understand what you've noticed is huge for me. And I want to.

I don't know what I want to say here other than I think it's underdeveloped. It seems like you're trying to correlate who is taking 3s and winning and I'm interested, but confused. I want what you're saying, but in a more suggestive format. Lead your thoughts please.

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[Simple Stats] Three Point Shooting of the Core Five

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