Based on recent draft history, the Rockets have a tendency to draft certain types of players over other ones. It seems that they have a certain profile they are looking for that will fit into their system and provide as smooth a transition as possible. Also, they seem to be interested in mature players that are developed if they are going to draft a role player. When it comes to star level players that could be significant building blocks ie Francis, then they seem to draft whoever they think will be a major stud down the line. For instance, Rudy T was drooling over Darius Miles b/c he felt Miles would be a major superstar down the road regardless of the fact that Miles was a high schooler. In terms of this draft, players that the Rockets would view in a similar light and want to move up for would be Eddie Griffin, Eddy Curry and possibly Tyson Chandler and Yao Ming. They wouldnt move up for the elite guards that would go in the top 8 as their backcourt is stocked. If the Rockets end up picking where they are expected to, these are some players that I definitely feel will be on their radar: Michael Bradley - I feel the Rockets will give this guy a long look in their drafting process. Rudy T and co. wanted Austin Croshere badly, but this guy is better and will be on a rookie contract. Bradley is a big 6-10 PF that can play an inside-outside game and fits well into the screen and roll type offense the Rockets like to run. He does an excellent job of developing position around the hoop and scoring down low which is evidenced by his eye popping 70% from the field. This is the main reason I like him better than Croshere as he is a lot better in the post. Also, Bradley is a very good rebounder. This would be a typical system pick for Rudy T and co. Troy Murphy - This would be another strong possibility as he fits the Rockets system very well. Murphy is a big 6-11 PF that can play both on the inside and outside. He can play a screen and roll game which fits well into this system and can rebound well. Shane Battier - I feel that Battier will be the SF that the Rockets hope will fall to the late portion of the lottery and has atleast a reasonable shot of doing so. He is a very good defensive player and provides the intangibles and "dirty work" a team needs to win in the long run. If Shandon is indeed considering leaving, Battier should be able to provide the necessary intangibles to fill the gap. The excellent fit comes in with the fact that Battier is very comfortable in spotting up from behind the arc with the long range shot he has developed and provides the ability to guard bigger SFs which is something the Rockets have sorely lacked with their small lineups. Terence Morris - I dont feel Morris is as much a lock of being on the "A-list" as the others, but I feel the Rockets will still give him a look-see. His heart and desire have been questioned, but Morris fits the profile the Rockets would be looking for at the 3 position. A long, athletic 6-9 player that can defend, rebound and run the floor. Also, he fits as a role player into the offense with his ability/preference to spot up and let the action come to him. Morris is also the underachieving type player with lots of raw talent the Rockets look at. This next group of players are those that could possibly be on the Rockets list but dont completely fit for some reason: Richard Jefferson - I know a lot of folks want this guy badly and are probably wondering what Im smoking for not including him at the top of the list but there are some key reasons why Im not totally sure Jefferson would be a main target for the Rockets. First of all, let me say that I am impressed with what Ive seen from Jefferson on both ends of the floor. However, there is a reasonably large opinion that Jefferson will have to convert to the 2 spot in the NBA as he may not quite be 6-7, more like 6-6 or 6-6 1/2. This is fine for other teams, but the Rockets are very interested in a tall SF that can help cover up their up their matchup disadvantages ie. Shane Battier. The fact that they passed up a talent like Mo Pete last draft who fits this team in every other aspect except for height should be something to look at. It seems they clearly have profiles that they look at, and Jefferson just may not fit what they are looking for. Loren Woods - As much as I hate to put Woods here, its a big question mark whether or not he'll be on their target list. The Rockets have been through a lot with a certain underachieving center and may not want the possibility of experiencing that again. If I were in their position, though, I would strongly consider taking Woods despite all the question marks as he is a very fluid and agile 7-1 center that can block shots, has a soft touch and runs the floor like gazelle. Brendan Haywood - I am hoping Haywood ends up on the NO WAY list but right now I have no idea whether or not the Rockets would be interested. Personally, I would much rather take a flyer on Woods as I feel Haywood will be a major disappointment in the NBA, Kelvin Cato Part II. Haywood may be 7 feet and he may be 270 pounds, but the guy moves like a slug, has zero fluidity and just has a horrible feel for the game. ------------------ Check out the Best Source for Draft Info Draftsource.net [This message has been edited by MManal (edited April 09, 2001).]
Insightful and helpful as always, MManal. Of course, everything could be academic if the picks are traded with Walt and Los (last-year contracts) for a star player. But if we draft, I agree with your analysis. Battier would be ideal but I think he'll be gone before even, say, #7. After him, I like Morris. If zones come into play, especially, he could be The Man: long-armed and athletic, can board, block shots, run, and even score on occasion, w/o taking away from Steve and Cat. ------------------
Just as Jefferson may not be a legit 6' 7", it will be interesting to see if Battier is really 6' 8". If he doesn't measure up and doesn't have Brand-like arms that could knock him a few slots. Even if only 6'7" I still like Battier because he does everything well if nothing phenominal. If he stays healthy (no reason to think he shouldn't given his work habits) he will be a very good role player in the NBA for quite a while, IMO. I am thinking of a player like Bryon Russell, who always contributes in some way, and who doesn't have any obvious weaknesses for the other teams to take advantage of. The Rockets need a few guys like that. I still have some questions about Jefferson. AZ coaches admit his BB IQ is "at best" average (think of Battier as an A+), and his shot is inconsistent (I saw him all year, not just the turney). He also doesn't handle the ball very well. Unless RJ continues his hot play and tears up the competition in pre-draft camps, he will be an after-the-lottery first round pick, IMO. Finally, in retrospect it is obvious Mo Pete should have been our first pick last year after we traded down. [This message has been edited by Desert Scar (edited April 09, 2001).]
Nice post, MM. If Diop comes out, where do you put him, and what do you think about Rodney White and Joe Johnson? ------------------
I agree mostly. One thing that most Rudy picks have is a good FT%, I think this is probably a big knock as far as Haywood goes, and a positive for Woods. But, if he's around at the Bucks/Mavs (via Orlando pick), I wouldn't be surprised to see us take Michael Wright. A good post presence, though undersized, he's extremely tough down low, and a very good rebounder, along with a FT% close to 80%. Height didn't stop Rudy from taking KT. I could also see us looking at Jason Collins. Rudy tends to like players who have an all around game. Dan Gadzuric is another guy who has a competitive spirit that Rudy would like. The Rockets also look at some of the foreigners. This year, there are 3 big names: -Yao Ming: 7'6'' with good shot. Rudy saw him at the Olympics, so he's probably ahead of most other teams scouting because of that. -Antonis Fotsis: SG/SF 6'10'' 20 year old Greek, with a sweet shot and good athletic abilities. <a href=http://fr.telebasket.com/player_info.asp?id_player=1300">Fotsis</a> -Pau Gasol: 7'1'' Spaniard, SF, nicknamed ET. Needs weight. <a href=http://es.telebasket.com/ENG/player_info.asp?id_player=5200>Gasol</a> ------------------ "That's been a lifelong dream of mine." -Vince Carter, after laying it in on a breakaway, much to the Vancouver crowd's displeasure.
I think Jason Collins would be a great pick up with one of the late round picks, and I would like to see the Rockets pick either Shane Battier or Rodney White if either is available with their first pick. I'd be surprised to see Rudy draft a foriegn player considering the Mirsad Turkcan pick a couple of years ago. What do you think that the chances of the Rockets trading their two later picks to try and get another pick in the top 15? ------------------
Considering that a few of the teams already have big men that pick in the top 10, it seems plausible that the Rockets could trade up. For example, if Cleveland picks at #7, and they have Iasd;lfkjgus and Mihm already, they could improve their lot by trading down to the Rockets for say #13 and #~22. Or LAC, that already has the Pansyman could trade down to pick up a Murphy/Bradley type... or Atlanta which already has Ratliff, could seemingly trade down. Draft day will be super fun (I hope). Here's hoping that Rudy has a clue... or gets ultra lucky w/ a top 3 pick that might force him to pick a consensus player. ------------------ \../
Moe, Joe Johnson is a good possibility as well if he declares (it appears he is still unsure); a multi-faceted SF that can handle the ball similar to the likes of Jalen Rose and Lamar Odom. Rodney White I am still gathering info on. Another SF that could very well be on the list (but it appears he will end up staying in college) is Rod Grizzard. He has an impressive all around game with his ability to handle the ball at 6-8. Also, another forward that is intriguing but is thought to be remaining in school is Drew Gooden from Kansas who is an inside-outside SF that can rebound. However, it appears that the odds of Gooden, Grizzard and/or Johnson going pro are iffy at best. ------------------ Check out the Best Source for Draft Info Draftsource.net [This message has been edited by MManal (edited April 09, 2001).]
Thanks, MM. I knew he was still undecided, but seem to remember reading something somewhere that made me think it's a good possibility he will declare elegible. ------------------
Great post, MManal, I think the Rockets will have a great chance at drafting a talented 3 where they're at in the draft. But I wish they had a better shot at a center. Personally, I'd rather get a good defensive center who can rebound and take Dream's place as starting center because I think Langhi can be a starter with time. I'd rather see Shandon and Langhi hold down the 3 for a couple years than grab someone like Battier and half to choose down the line. Don't get me wrong; I'd love to have Battier, but I'm more worried about filling the middle. Having said that, I'd like your thoughts on Rodney White and the others you've mentioned as soon as you're ready. I think White would be a good pick-up for the Rockets. ------------------
Great Post MManal. Would you mind comparing Battier to Rick Fox. That is my problem with Battier. 6'8" defenders with intangibles and great range describles Rick Fox, and they aren't that rare to find in mid-late first round in almost any draft. I'd take a Rick Fox in a second, but not at #13. I'm with you, Rudy will continue looking for tall shooters with smarts and passing. It does not matter that we picked Collier last year. He'll do it again, imo. I would too. Bradley sounds pretty good.
I really Like TayShaun Prince if he's there at #22 . He's a great scorer with leaping ability , 6 foot 8 would make him a Small Forward . Others say good things about Gerald Wallace from Alabama . Other wise we get Joe Johnson at #13 because Jefferson and Battier will probably be gone . I don't people going crazy over anything and everything thats 7 feet tall ------------------ C-Webb , C-Webb Run , Run C-Webb! , Run to Houston!
Everything I've read about Wallace is that he has great athleticism, but no shot. Prince and Joe Johnson both seem like versitale, tall athletic guys we should want on the roster. ------------------
When I look at Jefferson and Wallace, I think of Finley, in that they are both classic swingmen with wonderful athleticism and aggression, but with definite holes in their games. And like Finley, both will have to work hard to develop their games, but seem to have the requisite work ethic to succeed, just like Finley has. That's two of the biggest reasons that I like both of them, they seem to be good kids who can improve and have the will to improve. ------------------
I think Haston is a Rudy T type player. Haywood, when he's on, is quite the player. ------------------ "norm, would you like to buy an indian scalp ? This deal isn't gonna make or break me Norm, so don't jerk me around." Harry Carey "Norm, if I had a mohawk scalp, I wouldn't be sitting here talking to you."
The thing with Shane Battier is that he has a lot more intangibles than someone like Rick Fox. On the surface, they are similar players with Battier having more lateral movement. However, Battier's defense (both team and individual), his hustle (diving for loose ball, igniting rallies, etc) and sheer overall toughness are what vault him into the top 10. Battier by no means is an exceptional athletic talent, but he is solid and brings tons of intangibles and a good stroke from the outside. It sounds really strange that intangibles would raise a player's stock that much, but you basically have to see it in action to see why many are high on him. As far as the height question on Richard Jefferson. I have not found a 100% answer but it seems most places list him as a 6-7 small forward. The one main dissenter, though, is CBS Sportsline. They list Jefferson at a 6-6 shooting guard. Usually, I wouldnt make an issue over one inch in height, but that seemed to be somewhat of a roadblock last draft in Rudy looking at players like Morris Peterson. I dont think inability to create a shot off the dribble will prevent Rudy T and co from drafting certain players as a spot up shooter from the 3 spot fits into the offense. Both Battier and Jefferson arent very good in this area and do better in terms of spotting up and receiving a pass. Strangely enough, out of Battier, Jefferson, Morris and Prince, Tayshaun is the best in terms of putting the ball on the floor; I wouldnt rule him out since he looks to be avail in the 20-30 range. ------------------ Check out the Best Source for Draft Info Draftsource.net
MManal, thx Where you say..."I dont think inability to create a shot off the dribble will prevent Rudy T and co from drafting certain players"...that wasn't directed at my analysis was it? Certainly, I agree with you. We have 3 creators (SF, CM, Mo') and KT is a decent one for bench minutes and injury starts. If I said anything, I meant to say that Rudy wants a SF who can hit the shot FIRST and drive the crease once one of the creators swings it to him. To me, this is what this offense requires, and what Rudy has stated: 1. Shooters (taller the better) 2. Ability to drive to the basket, or in for a 15-18' midrange if the zone overplays the perimeter and you receive a swing pass. That pretty much describes Walt out of college...no? 3. For big men #2 can be replaced by this, the ability to play the pick n roll and sound understanding of the high pivot passing game. What Rudy would not take Rudy will not take anyone who can't hit the open shot unless they are a 6'10" or better banger, with proven rebounding/shotblocking skills. From what you and others have told me about Jefferson, he does not make the cut. If one of our shooters/intimidators is not available, we will trade down to avoid taking Jefferson, imo. Thanks MManal and The Cat, once again you and draftsource show more objectivity than any other so-called draft gurus. CD saying we like Jefferson is a classic smoke screen.
I go to UK and the word around here is that Tayshaun and Bogans are just feeling it out. Neither of them would be a high pick this year and they know that. However, next year we do need to take a look at TP. I think he would fit the Rock system perfectly. Especially after another year of seasoning. Plus he's a really good kid from all accounts I've heard. Tall, can shoot the 3, good defender, better than average rebounder, can run the floor, moves well w/out the ball, has good character, and w/ that 7' wingspan is a walking mismatch. Seems like a RudyT type of player. However, he will definately need to hit the weights, which I hear he's really working on it this summer. He'll never be a star, but I think he could be a solid role player. ------------------
If we moved up in the draft it would be Eddie Griffin or bust. ------------------ President of the Steve Francis, Jamal Crawford,Larry Hughes, and Charles Woodson fan club.
You know, I saw quite a bit of Richard Jefferson this year, more than I expected to see, and I think I've figured out who he reminds me of. I think Richard Jefferson could be a premier defensive player in this league, he seems to have good defensive instincts and is quick enough to defend most guards. In fact, I think he would be better suited to being a defensive stopper at the 2, than at the three. He is an excellent athlete and a superb shot-blocker. But his offensive game seems to be lacking, he has an OK mid-range jumper, but beyond that it begins to fade a bit. And I'm not impressed with his ball-handling. With that in mind, this is who he reminds me of : I think he's got the potential to be better offensively, but at this point this is who he looks like to me. Perhaps I'm wrong. ------------------ Charles Barkely on the Raptors defeating the Knicks in Round 1 :"I think it was the Lord. The Lord was with the Raptors. You know the Knicks like to talk so much about religion, but I think the Lord was a Raptor fan." [This message has been edited by Puedlfor (edited May 17, 2001).]
