http://www.breitbart.com/system/wire/DA7DG4S83 Good news and bad news. Bad news is it'll open up the field to this guy:
One terrible governor soon to be replaced by another equally terrible one. Abbott is no less political or extreme. Texans will unfortunately see little to no change.
Too soon to start looking for a D to run against Abbott in 2018? Might have a shot at winning that one.
Thanks to Gerrymandering we have no shot until the Hispanic minority becomes the majority in like 2040 or something like that. Unless Republicans start something shocking like executing liberals or hanging people in public, then we won't see a shift.
Please don't give them any ideas. While he's certainly a lot less stupid than Perry, Abbott isn't as good a campaigner. It will be tough and take a well funded candidate (something we haven't had to go against the repubs in a long time), but it's possible to win that seat next year. Bill White should have waited (or run for the Senate like I hoped he would). I don't know if Wendy Davis will do it or if she's the right one. She's kind of a one trick pony right now. She'll have to really get out there and show that she's more than just women's reproductive rights.
This is the wrong approach and Texas Democrats need to stop it. The formula for success is in front of us. The Republicans went through all of this 30 years ago. Republicans were unable to break through on any of the statewides until Bill Clements became governor. But that didn't just magically happen. Republicans made a concerted effort to run good candidates for statewide seats over and over again until they finally won a race. Even then Bill Clements ended up losing after 1 term but Republicans didn't stop trying even though the odds were against them. Even in 1994, Republicans got beaten pretty badly. All of the momentum they had built up suddenly turned against them when Ann Richards won. Democrats won all of the statewides in 1994 except Treasurer and Agriculture Commissioner. The interesting thing is that the Treasurer that won was Kay Bailey Hutchinson and the Ag Commissioner was a guy by the name of Rick Perry. Even in a down year, those two became giants in Texas politics for a generation. Democrats can't just sit back and wait. They need to find candidates to run and get close. Republicans knew they were going to lose over and over in the 70s but they kept trying and each election they got closer. Democrats need to start trying now. Find candidates that want to run that can raise money and win an election. If the political community starts to buy into a multi year plan, then maybe one candidate will eventually break through. And once a Democrat breaks through the statewides, all bets are off. Every single statewide office is open in 2014. It is possible to put up a fight in some of those. It just takes some concerted effort and good candidate recruitment.
Its going to take a hell of a lot of campaign money. The good thing is since its an open seat we won't have to deal with a stacked incumbent. So this is a good a chance as ever. I agree with leroy. Bill White should have waited until the eventual open seat in the gubernatorial election; its way too hard to knock off a steady incumbent.
Not true. TRP is pushing for more campaigning and participation in minority regions. Hispanics statistically identify more with conservative than liberal views according to numerous surveys. They vote d because many c Republicans conceded long ago they could not win their vote and because of limited resources, focused on other areas. There is a push to change this. As someone who has attended RPT campaign managing school, I can assure you there is a push to be more involved in these districts. Candidates involved in these regions have seen their minority votes increase significantly. The Republican Party will attempt to extensively expand their participation in these areas. I'd also like to point out that Hispanics overwhelmingly voted for Bush, and roughly half voted for perry. Losing the w**** majority is not the death of the republicans.
Actually an open seat is a bad thing in the case of Rick Perry. Rick Perry has a record and has been there forever. Just his longevity alone is a negative and people naturally are willing to vote for change for change's sake. Bill White would have done worse if 2010 was an open seat versus Rick Perry. But you can't just wait for open seats versus incumbents. You need to just run and try. Texas Democrats are just delaying their ability to be competitve by refusing to contest seats unless everything is ok. You can't win unless you are actually running. And as long as the Democrats continue to just wait and not nominate serious candidates, this state will not take them seriously. You need to make voters comfortable with voting Democratic again. As it stands now, Republicans just complain about Obama and voters vote for them because Republicans have successfully sold the idea that all Democrats are just Obama clones. In order to change that you have to actually run real candidates. As long as you fail to do that, Republicans will get away with running against false caricatures and that only reinforces the stereotypes that voters have towards Democrats. It is unfortunate that Southern voters are particularly inflexible in their voting habits which makes this process harder but I find far too many Democrats just writing off election after election. There's a reason why in a state like Montana, Democrats are winning statewide seats left and right despite being a clearly Republican state. The Democratic Party there has made Republican voters comfortable in splitting tickets. (Just as the Republicans in Texas did many years ago) You can't all of a sudden expect people to just split tickets unless you plan on waiting an eternity for the inevitable demographic shifts. You do it over time and unless the Democrats are willing to run seriously and lose then they'll never get voters to start voting like Republicans in states like Montana or the Dakotas.
Would also like to point out that Abbott has something like 18 million in war chest. Don't think any d has anything near that. Even perry only has something like 3 last I heard.
You're right. Bullock won in 1994 but every other Democrat lost. (also he's the last Democrat to win statewide)
Gerrymandering has no effect on statewide races, since there are no districts to gerrymander. Besides, Texas is already a majority-minority state. Perry retiring hurts Dems in 2014 - with a good moderate candidate, they had a shot simply due to apathy and dislike on the GOP side of Perry. But with a fresh start, the GOP should have a pretty easy election.
I agree with all of what you said - but I think one big problem is that it takes a whole lot more effort and money to run a statewide race in Texas compared to Montana or the Dakotas. If you mostly expect to lose, it's much harder to motivate people to go through that process and try to raise all that money.
No question that its a barrier but Texas has the fundraising potential to make it far less daunting. A non Gubernatorial race isn't particularly expensive. (especially with all spots being open seats) Bill White raised 25 or 26 million to Rick Perry's 32 or 33 million. Certainly its a gap but its not a gap that makes it impossible to compete. Part of fundraising is getting the Democratic fundraising base to invest in Texas candidates again. They have to pitch the same story that I'm pitching now. Turning Texas Blue is an investment that takes time. You'll get seemingly negative returns on your money until things turn around. Republican donors in the 70s got this message. Texas has a ridiculously huge Democratic fundraising base that is waiting to be tapped but has really been disengaged from the process for years. Engaging them means showing a commitment to contest and providing a roadmap that goes beyond simply stating that demographics will eventually turn our way.
Oh I absolutely agree that it's doable. If Wendy Davis runs, she'll bring money pouring in nationally too. But I'm just saying that it requires so much more time and work (fundraisers, etc) that it's going to be a discouraging factor. I imagine fundraising is the most obnoxious part of the time/effort spent by politicians, so having to do so much of it is going to discourage a lot of good people from running, if they expect to lose and know they are just prepping the field for the future.
Kudos to Governor Perry for a fantastic run. You've helped nurture one of the few bright spots in the US economy. Well done.
And a virtual black hole in terms of education. Bravo for mortgaging our childrens future, you slimeball corporate power-bottom. He is retiring because there is no more room left to fill his colon with any more corporate semen. Unless, of course, he wants to get fracked to allow more room...which even that evolution hating tea bagged closet homozor knows is bad for his rectal environment. (but he allows it for central texas!) He wont be missed, not at least by people who care about more person than profit.
typical liberal -- doesn't care about jobs you should apply for a position in the Obama administration
