This is why I think it's so important to go all out this year to win a championship within reason. Realistically it's going to be very hard to keep everyone together and there's just not a lot of pitching prospects within the Astros system that you can say wow they're going to be stacked for the next 3-5 years.
He's had multiple great starts, not just yesterday's gem against the Mariners. In addition to his stuff, it's great that he's a durable, innings-eater as well, in addition to giving you quality outings. The high early-season ERA was in part due to the Kulpa game, although he did have another bad start or two around that time. Just giving my 2 cents.
Cole is a great pitcher. My gut tells me he will be here next year if Houston wins the World Series. It's just a feeling I have. Springer might re-up. The market out there for guys his age just isn't great at the age of 31. Correa is the one guy I just don't know what to think long term. If the guy can just get healthy and stay healthy, he is probably the best player on the team. But unfortunately, he can't...
For now, next season’s rotation is Verlander, McCullers, Peacock, and 2 guys from the group of unproven guys (Whitley, Martin, Urquidy, James, Valdez, Bielak, Armenteros, Ivey, Rodgers, Martes, Sneed, Abreu, Bukauskas, etc.). Martin might be out all of next season. However, they are very likely to add a starter at the deadline who can be a #2 or #3 who will have at least one more year of control (Stroman?). That means next season would be Verlander, TBD (Stroman), McCullers, Peacock, and TBD (open competition). That’s probably a better rotation than they had at the beginning of 2017.
I trust Luhnow to make the right decision. I'm still not upset that Charlie's gone when I consider that these decisions are not made in a vacuum. That said, in our hypothetical world where we can do anything, I still voted no in the poll, because I don't want to give up Springer. I'd give up Correa in a heartbeat (at the right, hopefully-massively-inflated price to someone else), but George has convinced me that I want him here. He's playing with more stability than I can remember, even in the WS year. The injury was heartbreaking because of how well he was doing, but he's come back it like a house afire. If Cole really is wanting what people are saying, I don't see how you can keep him. And hopefully he goes back to the NL, because I don't want us to have to face him, either.
On a completely-tangential linguistic musing, I always have to look twice whenever I see the word "resign" in sports forums. It's an extremely rare example of two words spelled exactly the same way meaning completely-opposite things depending on context. It reminds me of a Final Jeopardy question a couple decades ago that was about another word with two completely-opposite meanings: "cleave."
We can try and trade Reddick and Gurriel after this year, and clear $21M in salary. $8M for Joe Smith will also come off the books, so those three contracts can help pay for Cole. Of course, we're going to sign some other guys (not sure who, but we will sign at least a FA or 2), and some other players will get raises in arbitration. I can also see Jake being moved since he'll get a raise in arbitration, especially if they're happy with Straw's development. Gonna be a very interesting offseason.
I felt they made a calculated decision on Morton. He likely would have taken the qualifying offer (thus why it wasn’t extended)... but he has to stay healthy for an entire year before he is deemed worth it. Luxury tax implications aside, this would be a lot easier of a decision if the farm system was producing viable starting (or relief) pitching... then again, I have no concerns about this front office being able to go out and sign or trade for a pitcher if needed.
He had one truly awful start in April (Kulpa game) along with a bad one in May.. I think you’re inadvertently putting too much weight on one start as well.
Astros have 46 million coming off the books with Chirinos, Cole, Miley, McHugh, Rondon, Smith, and Will Harris. However, the extensions to Bregman, Pressly, and Verlander eat up about 32 million of that in real dollars and 40 million in AAV dollars for salary cap purposes. Then you have Springer and Correa getting big bumps in arbitration that will probably add at least 12 million and maybe over 15 million to the payroll. Osuna, McCullers, Marisnick, Peacock, and Diaz will also get bumps. So basically, without cutting payroll, the Astros will be over this year's salary number and still need to fill the holes left by Rondon, Miley, Harris, McHugh, Chirinos, and Smith. Getting rid of Gurriel and Reddick still might not be enough to afford Cole and field a deep team.
When does the tax implications kick in? I was under the impression that it's at $206 million. Houston is at $158 million.
Current payroll for next season is $175-190M depending on arbitration outcomes and assuming they keep/tender everybody. Not sure where that puts the luxury tax calculation, but I think that gives them $10-15M to play with, which of course would be totally gone if they extend Springer and might not exist if they trade for a pitcher who will be arb eligible next season. I do think they’ll try to trade Reddick (assuming they keep Tucker) for catching or pitching help. Gurriel only makes $8.4M and his versatility and clubhouse presence should be well worth it. There really aren’t any other players who make sense as salary dumps. I would be surprised but not shocked if they shopped Correa looking for a godfather offer from an NL team (assuming Correa has a healthy 2nd half). That would save about $9M next season.
Astros are at 189ish for luxury tax calculations and it could be significantly more depending on how they structured the Verlander and Bregman deals. Tax implications start at 206.
They can always find a way to afford him, the question is at what cost? This is going to sound wild but I wouldn’t even be opposed to trading Correa for prospects once he’s in his last two years of arbitration and when he’ll likely be somewhat costly. If we can find a way to win it all again this season it’d be huge for us - it’ll only allow us to increase our payroll further. That being said, I agree with Springer being the most likely to resign though.
If that’s the case then letting Morton walk was the dumbest decision Lunhow’s made. I don’t care if it was between getting Brantley or keeping Morton...I would have kept Morton I’d our plan was 100% to let Cole walk.
Agreed with everything you said here, couldn’t be more accurate and it’s the reason I made the thread in the first place. So much has changed since this past offseason - everything you mentioned and you could even add Martin was a bit of a let down up here. And while Martin has good stuff, I’ve watched the kid since it was a freshman at A&M...there’s a reason he was demoted to the bullpen there. He was always wildly inconsistent and I don’t have that feeling where I know he’s going to make it. Also, might as well throw Framber into the disappointment discussion. We haven’t had a single pitcher IMO that we’ve promoted where I’ve gone “man that kid is going to be a star for sure”. If we let Cole walk we’re going to be in trouble with our rotation, I don’t care what anyone says. Our bullpen hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire either, especially the back end of the bullpen which will see A LOT more action if we go into 2020 with LMJ/Peacock as our #2.
LOL... somehow the re-sign Cole thread is devolving into the “trade Correa for prospects because he’s never signing here, ever, and he gets hurt” thread. He’s an imbecile for how he got injured... but the guy has extremely valuable skills on both sides of the diamond. 2 more years after this one to continue to accomplish ultimate goals. I’d still rather the Astros get the most out of him, vs. selling low.
Where are you getting the $175-$190M from? I’m looking at Spotrac and it shows $124M in guaranteed salaries. Are you just assuming arbitration salaries for everyone? If so, you’re way high there regardless - Osuna and Springer should be the only two who are due a significant amount. So at most we’re around the $155M range. In addition I think we can shed Reddick - even if we have to pick up ~$4-$5M that saves $8M.
Springer is already getting $12 (or 14?) million this year. I’m also guessing its in both parties interests, if an extension is going to be worked out, that they do it before next year and buy the year out.... but in either case, his raise will not be astronomical compared to what he’s getting now. Correa stands to lose the most possible earning potential by having to sit out a lot this year. As it is, the Astros have a great case in arbitration regarding players who get injured during non-team sanctioned activities or trainers.
