In light of the recent comments made by Stone and Fertitta, I decided to take a deep dive into looking at how long it takes to rebuild an NBA team from bottom dweller to perennial playoff contender. After all, when your owner and GM publicly states that they want to compete and complete a rebuild in almost no time flat you start to wonder if that's even possible. To start, I eliminated almost half of the league and only looked at the current top 8 teams in each conference. I thought this would be a good place to start considering the other 14 teams are either stuck in mediocrity or is going through a full tear down. Now that I've decided what teams to look at, I started looking at their franchise cornerstone(s)--how many each team had, and how they got there. The quantity part can be subjective (is Rudy Gobert a franchise cornerstone? Could we count Kris Middleton as part of the foundation in Milwaukee?) so I decided to use a simplistic way to deem a player a franchise cornerstone--All-NBA recognition. Sure even this recognition isn't always on the mark but I think it's a good starting point without having to dive deeper into advanced metrics like WAR, +/-, PER, TS%, etc. Next, I want to look at the "how they got there" part. Whether it was through the draft, free agency, trades, etc. I'll include notable transactions that helped the team get out of the basement. The starting point I used for the team's rebuild is basically bottoming out in their respective division. I will look at the years prior as necessary but don't want to stray to far from this baseline. I will then look at the trades, FA signings, draft picks, etc. that occurred since that rock bottom year. And of course no post is worthy of a read without a grading system. I'll grade draft picks, free agent signings, and trades on a 5 star scale. One last thing I'll grade is the team's luck. It's crazy to assess because all team's need a little bit of luck to succeed right? But there are definite levels of luck in getting your team to the top of the standings. I'll make my way through all 16 teams hopefully by the time the NBA Finals roll around. The first team is everyone's favorite: UTAH JAZZ Recent rock bottom year: 2013-2014 season (25-57; last in the division) Best players during rock bottom year: Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors Coach during rock bottom year: Tyrone Corbin Current franchise cornerstone: Rudy Gobert (3x All-NBA) Future franchise cornerstone: Donovan Mitchell (no All-NBA recognition yet) The 2013-2014 Jazz finished last in the division with a 25-57 record (last in their division; tied for 4th worst in the NBA) and secured the 5th pick in the 2014 NBA draft, taking Dante Exum. In fact prior to taking Exum at #5, the Jazz had 4 top 15 picks in the previous 4 years (Gordon Hayward #9 in 2010; Enes Kanter #3 and Alec Burks #12 in 2011; Shabazz Muhammad #14 in 2012 who was then traded for Trey Burke, the 9th player taken in the 2013 draft). Of course none of those players are still on the roster now which is remarkable considering how high these picks were. As for the current and future cornerstones, Gobert and Mitchell, it's really funny how they got to Utah in the first place. Gobert (27th in the 2013 draft) was drafted and then traded by the Denver Nuggets to Utah back in 2013 for Erick Green and cash during the draft. Mitchell (13th pick in the 2017 draft) was also drafted and then traded by the Nuggets to Utah, this time for Tyler Lodon and Trey Lyles. So, in essence, the Utah Jazz can thank the Nuggets for helping them rebuild into one of the best teams in the league today. As for the rest of the roster who are key contributors: Mike Conley: Utah traded two 1st rounders and some players (most notable being Grayson Allen) to acquire Conley in 2019. While he played like crap last year Conley has turned it around and is a big reason why Utah is leading the pack this year. Joe Ingles: The Clippers waived Ingles back in 2014 and the Jazz picked him up. Been with the team ever since. Royce O'Neale: Went undrafted, O'Neale went to play overseas before the Jazz plucked him pretty much from obscurity. Bojan Bogdanovic: Signed as a free agent in 2019 Jordan Clarkson: Acquired via trade with Cleveland in 2019 with Utah sending former #5 and current bust Dante Exum (and 2 2nd rounders) out the door. On the coaching side, Tyrone Corbin got ired for that rock bottom year in 2014 and was replaced by Quin Snyder, who has guided the Jazz to 4 (soon to be 5) playoff appearances with 2 years making it to the 2nd round. The hiring of Snyder has been as important as any of these player transactions in my opinion. Rebuild assessment: Via Draft: This should be pretty evident considering none of their top 6-7 players were acquired via the draft. In fact, their draft picks have turned out to be anywhere from serviceable (on another team) to god awful. Grade: 0/5 Via Free Agency: Bogdanovic was an underrated signing back in the summer of 2019. O'Neale has been a very good complementary player on their roster, serving as an above average defender and is hitting 37% of his threes this year. The waiver wire claim of Ingles, however, is still critical as he's been the deadly marksman every contending team needs. The guy is shooting 49% from downtown this year on 5.5 attempts a game. Essentially Utah hit on key free agent pick ups that have helped them with their rebuild faster. Grade: 4/5 Via Trade: Conley looked really bad and washed up last season but has definitely bounced back this year filling in the role Utah envisioned when they made that trade--the perfect fit in the backcourt with Mitchell as the primary backcourt defender and low maintenance guard that can facilitate the offense. Clarkson's ascendance into super 6th man role has become important to the Jazz's success as depth (specifically scoring) off the bench was what did them in over the years in the postseason. Grade: 3/5 Via Luck: Through the roof. The above free agent signings and trades wouldn't mean anything at all if it weren't for the luck of obtaining not one but two players who would eventually become All-Stars in Gobert and Mitchell. Some might say that Mitchell had the look of a future All-Star when he was coming out of college (that group, IIRC, is very small) but Gobert's rise into becoming an All-NBA, All-Defensive, 2x DPOY All-Star was improbable to forecast when he was drafted in 2013. Gobert is Utah's defensive anchor (except when Capela plays against him) and, without him, Utah might look more like a poor man's version of the Trailblazers than the best team in the NBA right now. This doesn't even go into the discussion of how they were able to pull Ingles and O'Neale from obscurity to become integral parts of a title contending team this year. Grade: 5/5 TL;DR: The Jazz's rebuild started after the 2013-2014 season and, in 7 years time, they have rebuilt their team into one of the best in the league. Some of it was due to good trades and excellent free agent signings but, most importantly, a whole lot of luck in trading for their current stars Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. Without hitting on both players, Utah would still be on the treadmill of mediocrity.
To go from rock bottom to being a good team that can make the playoffs? I’d say an average of about 5 years if you’re lucky and a good organization. To go from rock bottom to being an actual contender or at least a team capable of reaching a conference finals? That could take well over a decade we won just 1 playoff series in 15 years before Harden’s MVP year in 2015 the Bucks made the ECF in 2001, and never returned until 2019 the Sixers made the ECF in 2001, and haven’t been back since the Jazz made the WCF in 2007, and haven’t been back since the Nuggets made the WCF in 2009, and didn’t return until 2020 Nets are finally a factor for the 1st time since 2003 or 2004 Suns are finally good for the 1st time since 2014, but the last time they made a conference finals was back in 09 and I can go on and on
Look how long it took the Lakers to be relevant again with all their inherent advantages? It took hiring a former agent and recruiting the best player in the world to play and be GM. Relevancy in the NBA takes a lot of skill. What Utah has done over the years has been nothing short of amazing since they don't attract free agents. We had the same leadership with Morey. There are very few teams that continue to be competitive over decades.
All very good points. I think Stone's comment about judging his body of work in 2030 and not 2027 was fair. If he's still the GM by that time and Houston's not back into being a top 4 team in the West then, yea, he didn't succeed. That's the question, of course, is whether or not Tilman has that kind of patience. Perhaps Stone will build the team on a path of mediocrity--42-44 wins--to pacify Tilman for the next few years and hope that either a draft pick or trade will take the Rockets to the next level.
I'm going to leave the Lakers out of my writings in this thread because, honestly, LeBron has his own gravitational field. There are many teams that leveraged their luck into building a successful team but putting LeBron on your roster accelerates your rebuild 2-3x faster.
So, are you going to say the Mavericks didn’t rebuild through the draft, either, just bc Doncic was picked by Atlanta? The Mitchel draft day trade was setup prior to the draft, and executed during Denver’s time on the clock to select. It was merely dependent on Mitchel still being on the board when Denver selected. Utah wanted Mitchel for awhile, and Denver had interest in Lyles and trading down in the draft. It was just a formality that Denver officially made the pick. here’s the explanation of announcement of draft rights being traded before Mitchel even stepped off the stage after shaking Silver’s hand https://archive.sltrib.com/article.php?id=5436656&itype=CMSID Here’s talk of pre-draft try-outs when everyone knew Utah had no chance for the pick, unless they traded up. https://archive.sltrib.com/article.php?id=5433367&itype=CMSID
While I remember it was a trade made on draft day I did not remember the finer details so thanks for the correction. I'll do a better job with research for the next team. But picking a franchise altering player outside of the top 10 is still pretty remarkable.
The Jazz GM is from my high school. Maybe we can lure him home to houston. Edit: I guess lindsay was promoted to executive VP
top 4 pick or bust this season, because I see them trying hard to compete starting next year and hoping that the BK picks will deliver
