Alot of hitters stepped it up in the Braves series (Biggio, Bagwell, Ensberg) and then disappeared in the St Louis series. Only Beltran and Berkman maintained a consistant level of play for both series.
you're not saying anything i disagree with, here. except i'd add biggio to the list of guys who stepped up in the braves series. my point is merely that if you're comparing last year's team to this year's team, i don't think you can talk about beltran not being here as anything other than a missed opportunity...not as a decline for the team in regular season production from one year to the next by the numbers. he batted, what?? .256 during the regular season with us? i remember a guy in my office who didn't know him well from KC saying, "what's the big deal with this guy?" he shined like crazy in the playoffs...no doubt there. but if we're talking about 2004 production vs. 2005 production, the loss of Jeff Kent is FAR more significant than Beltran heading to the Mets.
For the last several years all anyone could talk about the Braves was how they had fallen off and would have no offense and their pitching was gone. Well they keep winning, and I think that's what good teams are able to do even after losing some of their best players. Yes we lost Kent and Beltran, but during the regular season Beltran really wasn't that spectacular. Kent 's a loss, but we have no idea how much Jason Lane and Chris Burke could step up, and our rotation was a mess last year. Add Pettitte and Backe to Roy and Roger, and I think you have a team that can at the least compete. To start last year, this team minus Jeff Kent was getting World Series predictions. You mean to tell me that losing Kent drops us to #23!? I'm not saying we are favorites or anything, but we still have a lot of guys that can play. I think a lot of our season could depend on if Ensberg keeps his stroke going like he had it towards the end of the season last year, and if Adam Everett can make some strides at the plate (which he was showing before he got injured).
What some of you are missing when you cant understand how we dropped in the rankings is that in addition to us getting weaker....other teams got better....we did nothing to improve ourselves while teams like LA, NY, FLA, ATL and a few others got better. Some got better by just not losing any pieces.
no...he's saying this team, as it's currently comprised, now without Jeff Kent, was picked to be a World Series contender last season. he's saying the only real difference between the team at the start of the season and the start of this season is Jeff Kent.
Then they stayed the same. (warning: off-topic aside to follow) In Houston, when the Astros keep everyone (not losing any pieces) but don't sign anyone, the fans raise hell about how that cheap McScrooge never does anything to make the team better. I wonder if fans in these cities are singing the same dirge? (/aside) The Astros are clearly not as good on paper as they were to start last season. That said, I can't wait until they play the games! Joaquin Andujar once said that baseball can be summed up in one word: "juneberno".
I've demonstrated how that's not true (short version: high expectations for Miller, Ensberg, Dotel, resulted in lofty predictions) before. I know you're not making this claim btw Max, its Josh, but you summed up his point better.
agreed...but i have higher expectations for Lidge now then I ever had for Dotel. and that's saying a lot. i agree with you on ensberg...my expectations for him have cooled...but he might surprise us. miller...backe. given what i know about the two, i'll take backe. i like our starters better going into this year than i did going into last year.
I am worried about losing Kent I know that much. I also know that during the post season I complained about the bullpen, and I am still worried about it.
It's not what we know now about these players, though, it's what was expected going into last season versus this season. Miller was expected to be an ace in 2004, Backe's expected to be a solid starter in 2005. And it's 2004 expectations for Dotel + Lidge versus 2005 expectations for Lidge + ? I'm just explaining why in my opinion the expectation levels are lower this season, I'm not making current player evaluations.
You can also take into account that nobody had that big expectations for Clemens... and yet they were still WS "contenders" at the start of last season. This year, expectations for Clemens are more than they were at the START of last year, and expectations for Pettite are far less. IMO, Pettite's performance will make or break our season. The offense is too unpredictable to factor into predicting our performance (I don't believe they'll be great... but they won't be awful either), and same goes for the bullpen (Qualls was quite good... even in the playoffs... I think he WILL be our setup man by May). Thus, going down the checklist of "knowns:" 1. Roy should be the same, if not better (he had his "worst" year last year... and some said it was his best). 2. Roger will not be as good. (but that could still mean close to 17 wins, and a 3. something ERA). 3. A full season of Lidge = bliss. (I do not expect anybody to touch him... he WILL have a Gagne-type season, and he will be a Cy-young candidate). And, the great "unkowns": 1. Pettite (the difference maker) 2. The Offense 3. The Bullpen Those are the issues... and you guys can debate all you want right now... but we will not fully know about those last three points until they start playing the REGULAR season games (I take NO stock in spring-training games to determine anything).
As for Clemens.. statistically how do pitchers do in their 2nd year in a new league? Does the fact that the hitters now know them better cause them to do worse, or does the fact that the pitcher now knows the hitters better too even things out?
Cannot blame you for not taking stock in spring training games. Redding does well usually in spring training. It is probably the fact that he realizes the game does not really mean anything so he does not put any pressure on himself like he does in a regular game...plus he is throwing to a bunch of players that will end up in the minors once the season starts anyway.
Precisely. And, hitters who do worse aren't really focusing... and hitters who do better is just because they're facing pitchers who aren't that great, or who aren't really trying. Thus, you can't take ANYTHING that happens in spring training as fact... except for how fast some guys are throwing (I'd like to see how hard Astacio really throws), how players come back from injury (Pettite) and maybe how well a player can defend his position... that's it.
Haven't we gone over batting average statistics, and them being overrated, ad nauseam? I pretty sure you have said as such, yourself. I don't know what you are trying to do, other than finding and using something to tailor your argument. His OPS in his time with the Astros was .927, which happens to be higher than any output on the roster by EVERYONE not named Lance Berkman. That includes a dismal September. A September in which Carlos would probably tell you, first hand, that it was the worst stretch of his career. But it's not as bad as some make it out to be. Despite the seven RBIs, his OPS was still higher than Biggio's; he led the team in extra base hits (10), walks (18), runs scored (23), stolen bases (6), stolen base percentage (1.000), and was the best defensive player on the team. And to Behad..... Carlos Beltran's impact on this team in a little over half a season and post season was more the Ensberg and Chavez will have combined throughout their careers with the Astros.
I know, but it was the long argument about him that made me want to say that...not the random mentioning earlier
