Potential X Factors: Terrance Jones guarding Durant, Beverly Guarding Westbrook( + odds)

Obviously nobody is able to stop KD and Russ completely, but I think these guys could make life difficult for them. Durant is at his deadliest when he gets seperation, usually via off-ball screens. This allows him to get off his amazing jumper, or forces the defender to over commit so he can drive past him. I think Jones has the speed, strength and defensive awareness to stick to durant through the perkins/ibaka/collison screens. The guys that give jones problems are overpowering F/Cs, Durant is not one. He isnt that great at getting to the rim either (4.4 shots at rim, parsons 4.6 for comparison, elite guys like harden 5.8). You need to work hard at not giving him space off the ball and force him to catch the ball stationary (those situations where he is standing 28 ft away from the basket with his hand up calling for it with a guy on top him happens a lot. That is a victory). When he does get it Jones has the height, length, and leaping ability to strongly contest his jumpers.

Westbrook takes pull up jumpers and gets to the rim. Ive never seen a pg contest jump shots like Beverley. Russ' somewhat below average percentages should get worst with beverly on him. The main concern with russ is him getting into the paint. He gets there more than any perimeter player not named lebron. From there he is a decent finisher in traffic (much improved from the past) and he gets most of his assists by kicking out, and with our abysmal perimeter D in those situations thats a recipe for disaster. Beverly's over aggressiveness leaves him susceptible to blow bys. He needs to harness that intensity and do every he can to keep westbrook in front of him. If we can play solid 1 on 1 D on durant and keep westbrook out the paint, we have a chance. Yes, i know, easier said than done, great strategy, you should replace mchale, blah blah blah, but seriously, they have nothing else to rely on. Even with us if you take away Harden & Lin, you still have parsons, and a big to finish pnrs. All they have is martin who cant do anything if Russ and KD arent getting into the lane.


Summary:

I think T Jones will slow down KD, bev will slow down russ, this combined with 20+ mins of perkins will lead to a rockets series victory.

ODDS:

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets - Exact Series Result
All wagers have action
8:30p
Oklahoma City Thunder 4-0
21/10
Oklahoma City Thunder 4-1
7/5
Oklahoma City Thunder 4-2
3/1
Oklahoma City Thunder 4-3
5/1
Houston Rockets 4-0
80/1
Houston Rockets 4-1
50/1
Houston Rockets 4-2
14/1
Houston Rockets 4-3
18/1

Normally for upsets game 6 at home is where it would happen, but this is different. Imagine Harden coming back to OKC with a chance to send his old team packing 18/1....

 

to be more specific on solid 1 on 1 D on KD: give him no space. Crowd him. Westbrook, the opposite, maybe sag a little since ud rather have him shoot. I recall parsons guarding westbrook a couple times this season. That is very interesting since he could really sag off him preventing the drive but he is still able to contest his shots.

So D matchups assuming thunder small lineup
Lin-K mart
Harden-Thabo
Parsons-Westbrook
Jones- KD
Asik - Collison/Perk/Ibaka

 

he has been slipping recently. Harden syndrome, saving himself for the other end it seems like. Maybe in this series his role will be clear: STOP DURANT. Leave offense to lin and harden, just spot up with the occasional cut