I am big on "stuff" when it comes to relievers and being deep into the post season. I believe that the quality of stuff trumps other factors most of the time deep in the playoffs. I usually do not like giving relievers big contracts. I would make an exception for Josh Hader, depending on the money involved. Getting Pressly/Hader/Abreu as a top 3 would be a huge get and turn the post season into 6 inning games, and I am confident the starters would hold up their end of the deal. The other reliever I would really like to sign would be Matt Moore on a short deal. The stuff is there, he has been consistent of late and he can pitch 50-60 times a season. At 34 he isn't ancient but isn't young.
I am big on "stuff" when it comes to relievers and being deep into the post season. I believe that the quality of stuff trumps other factors most of the time deep in the playoffs. I usually do not like giving relievers big contracts. I would make an exception for Josh Hader, depending on the money involved. Getting Pressly/Hader/Abreu as a top 3 would be a huge get and turn the post season into 6 inning games, and I am confident the starters would hold up their end of the deal. The other reliever I would really like to sign would be Matt Moore on a short deal. The stuff is there, he has been consistent of late and he can pitch 50-60 times a season. At 34 he isn't ancient but isn't young.
I'm more interested in retaining Maton than I am Neris. He's younger, will be much cheaper, and has been absolutely nails in the postseason. 0.83ERA, .74 WHIP. I think there's something to the idea of calm, unemotional pitching that doesn't get rattled that's beneficial in those situations. Abreu has that. Press too. The demonstrative guys like Framber and Neris got touched up.
I have thought of this. Mlbtraderumors did an: Astros offseason chat, and someone asked which Astro FA the moderator thought might return to the Astros and he answered Maton on a 2 yr $12M ($6M salary) deal possibly with a 3rd yr option. I like Maton as a 4th or 5th best/highest paid reliever on a team. I'm just not sure if there is the open salary space for even that.
Great article on seeing the same reliever too much issue... hence, I am not overly concerned about the kinks in the armor for Neris and Abreu from the postseason https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2023/...b-playoffs-is-the-reliever-familiarity-effect large, statistically significant penalties incurred by relievers the more they face the same team in one series. “I would say that this effect, on the average, is as big or bigger than the times-through-the-order effect,”
Knew someone would bring that up. As long as he's not giving up hits to his little brother, we should be ok. And since Nick Maton is playing in the Tigers' minor leagues, it seems we're pretty safe on that front.
I'd take him back at that number. Especially if they don't retain Neris and Stanek. This team has SP depth (in theory) but not many relievers who can be counted on. You can't make it thru the postseason with only Pressly and Abreu as proven options.
2017 Postseason Astros... won it all despite the entire bullpen outside of Will Harris being a trainwreck in the World Series... Peacock and Morton moving to the bullpen in that series saved us.
I’d rather repeat the 2022 experience than the 2017 experience, thank you. For any number of reasons. One of which was the tight wire act with a brutal pen.
Yep... but having starters that can and are willing to be relievers can side step the reliever familiarity effect as starters tend to have more pitches available
Yearly reminder to not read too much into postseason results. Maton is, on the whole, a very average, easily replaceable bullpen part.
^^What is your agenda by saying this?^^ You recently proclaimed Pressly as the Astros greatest closer in history, which in significant part is based on postseason results. https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/ryan-pressly-greatest-closer-in-astros-history.321187/ The poster's context wasn't just Maton. It was Maton compared to Neris going forward.
Do I really have to draw the distinction between Pressly's postseason appearances and Maton's? They're the same thing to you? What are you, his lawyer? Reread his post and tell me to what degree, if any, you would factor in Maton's mostly low-leverage postseason results as a reason to retain him. I obviously would render it virtually meaningless, especially because Maton has been mediocre as in Astro, and 20 postseason appearances, spread out over three years, doesn't really change that. And for the record, if Pressly didn't have a larger body of excellent regular season results, his postseason work wouldn't factor much into my evaluation of him, either. But he's been a very good closer, and his work in the postseason elevates those accomplishments.
Lawyers can read. I can read. His words were very clear. The context was not Maton-only. Maton cleaned up messes in the postseason -- desperate leverage and high leverage. 20 innings (20 games) is more action than Biggio and Bagwell before Beltran showed them how to stop being scared little beeatches.
The context was why he'd favor Maton, and one of the three reasons given was that he's "been absolutely nails in the postseason." A0 that's not a compelling argument, generally; b) Neris has, one inning aside, been better in much higher-leverage situations in the postseason. Maton didn't pitch in '22 & most of his appearances this year were low-leverage - with the run differential 3+. OK?...
Yeah ONE of three. You've ignored 2 of 3 the reasons in three consecutive posts. Maton was the 6th inning guy, especially in close games. Many of those games were closer than 3 runs. Rewrite history much? Maton is a better playoff performer than the Killer Beeacthes, and he has a greater sample size before Beltran became their daddy.
He **** the bed in game 6 vs the Rangers and kept the game from being in reach. Dusty tried to save Press for a game 7 that he didn't even pitch in.
Montero 2nd half was pitching against non-playoff teams and in blowouts, so he was horrid and terrible. Don't overpay Neris like Montero.
