[Outside the Box] Post Bosh Plan A - Get Josh Smith, Then Match Parsons

Smith has averaged 18 and 9 exactly once in ten seasons, and he shot 45% to do it. If our PF shoots 45% from the field and 25% from 2's and 63% from the FT line while only going there 4.9 times per game, then we might as well start D-Mo. D-Mo is can be that efficient on offense, rebound at the same rate or better, he is at least an average defender, 5 years younger, and more than ten times cheaper. As for his "decent" mid range game, he has no such thing and a quick look at his shot chart will confirm that. He is below average and trigger happy from mid range even when he has been doing so playing against smaller players at the SF spot. Starting D-Mo at the 4 and using the remaining $13m (repeat: THIRTEEN MILLION US DOLLARS) via exceptions or MLE to get (for example in a worst case scenario) Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza, this would be a much better team overall.

No matter how you slice and dice it, to pay Josh Smith makes our team worse in the big picture because it takes away the opportunity to add other pieces. It's not my money and Les is willing to pay the tax, but Les has a limit and so does the NBA rules. Even if we have no cap space, the flexibility will make us more willing to spend money on other players.

There is no reasonable logic behind getting Smith. He has rarely ever been a good overall player, he is paid more than he has ever been paid, and now he is 28 years old. There is no reason to believe he will alter his game because he has been through every scenario imaginable and come out the same. When the Pistons got him, it was on the same basis as everyone is dreaming about here: if he improves his shot selection and focuses on defense, he will be a great starter and will somewhat justify his salary. That has been the song for ten years. Ten years. Ten years.

 

and this was 2013-2014

 

Wud not bang

 

Yeah I get he's sucks on the offensive side. Still elite defender though. Honestly we need to plug someone into that cap space and sign parsons quick. If a deal comes up later for top tier player he's a contract you can use to trade at the least. As long as he doesn't cost much and there aren't better options available I don't see the down side at this point. Can't be picky when we're on the clock here.

 

Here's the bullet in the head in case you are still not convinced Josh Smith is cancerous:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/t...nd-josh-smiths-brick-laden-season-in-detroit/

All for just $14m.

He's an excellent defender, I get it. But in a game won by points scored minus points allowed, there is absolutely no difference between a great defender who can't score and a great scorer who can't defend. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Sure, there are opinions. Defense wins championships. A great offense can make a great defense. These are opinions. The only thing we know for sure is you need to score more than the other team, and the net positive effect than Smith will have on defense will be more than covered by his atrocious offense. Not even average. For someone who is barely going to be a net positive, are you going to tell me that we have to pay $14m and that tiny net positive can't be attained any other way? Please. Come on.

In a league where Al Jefferson, Gerald Henderson and Josh McRoberts played on a very good defensive team, I tend to think the defensive system and effort goes a lot further than one excellent defender who will, without question, not only suck at offense but actually make it more difficult for Harden and Howard to score. Just like a team which started Beverley and T Jones were able to put elite offense on the floor for an entire season.

I do think we would get past the first round if we get Smith and Parsons. However, we will never get past the second, and we will never be able to afford to get better. Is that really worth it?

I hope I am wrong and we acquire Smith and he turns his career around propelling the Rockets to contender status. That would be awesome. But if miracles are going to happen, this is not the one I'm going to be wishing for.

 

right now i'm desperate
yea why not
not my money anyway

 

Detroit has too many post players on their starting 5. Not enough perimeter scoring. Rockets do not have any players to offer Pistons, but the Pelicans do. Modify the Pelicans' trade so it is a 3 way:

Houston gets: Josh Smith (excellent post/perimeter defender at the 4, passer, shot blocker & rebounder, and loves to run/initiate fast break) plus rights to big 6'6 PG Spencer Dinwiddie (perfect complement to Daniels or Johnson off the bench) and Patric Young (back up C who is better post defender & finisher than Asik, not as good rebounder)

Detroit gets: Eric Gordon (coveted perimeter scorer) & TJ (younger athletic offensive minded PF)

New Orleans gets: Omer Asik (starting C who will improve porous D and allow Davis to play more at PF), Isaiah Canaan (perimeter scorer to offset Gordon's loss) & Omri Casspi (contingency plan for Ryan Anderson if he is not ready when season begins)

 

If we were to get rid of Jones, Monroe should be the target. He isn't the sexy option, but he is better than Smith. Plus he can play the 5.

Also the change to that deal would be Detroit getting Canaan since the Hornets need to get rid of contracts. Would be a S&T for Monroe.

 

Offense isn't our problem at the 4. It was defense.... The offense wouldn't flow through smith and you might also think Dwight's relationship with him could keep him inline. Imagine Dwight in the post waiting for the entry pass and smith jacks a long 2 up. Dwight won't be too thrilled about that.

 

josh smith...you're off your rocker man.

 

Signing him will be better than not signing anyone, and not matching Parsons.

 

If the alternative is to not sign anyone with the cap space and match parsons thereby locking us out of the ability to make major upgrades then I'd take smith.

If the alternative is to not sign anyone and not match parsons to keep cap space then no I'd rather compete within Dwight's window.

If the alternative is to sign someone else I'm all ears but if it's someone that's not a great fit and we have to give up assets I'd rather go with smith as low hanging fruit and possibly upgrade using his contract for matching purposes later.

 

Smith won't get the sheer number of shots he had in Atlanta or Detroit. He'll have to be more picky with his shots since he'd be the 4th option. He would also not be the focus of the defense, which would give him more open looks. Combine that with the elite defense, and a Smith Parsons offseason is a fine one.

 

Why would he shoot less? What in his career indicates to you that he will shoot less rather than jack up shots which should go to more efficient players? Why would he stop shooting 3's? What is in this team that will make him change in a way that people have been trying to change him for ten years? Why do you think he will do these things? Read this article, and you tell me if this sounds like a guy who is planning to change anything:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/pistons/2014/01/14/josh-smith-nba-detroit-pistons/4480085/

Ask a Hawks fan. They will tell you the story of how they begged him to not shoot 3's, for years. Finally one season, he stopped shooting 3's. His numbers took a huge step up and the team benefitted. You know what happened next? He decided he likes 3's too much to stop shooting them. That's the kind of guy he is. That's Josh Smith - against all odds, against all constructive criticism, against all veteran advice, against all teammates disgusting looks, he has taken these shots. He does not believe that he is taking bad shots.

Even in his last season as a PF, he was a terrible offensive player. He has always been among the worst players in the league to take as many shots as he does outside EIGHT feet. EIGHT. You know what's happening inside our eight feet? Dwight Howard and James Harden. They own the eight feet. They are better at it than he is, and we don't need any more players who rely heavily on being within 8 feet.

That's not all. When he's outside 8 feet, he sucks so bad. Real bad. Can't hit a 3 or a FT. Just an average rebounder, so put-backs aren't all that common for him. You know what this means? He actually makes it more difficult for our scorers to score. His defender will let him take any shot - because outside 8 feet, who cares, and inside 8 feet, he is shooting over Dwight Howard if Dwight Howard is in the right place.

What you're expecting is that his numbers become decent on offense. He has had that opportunity many times. There have been teams designed to get him to a higher FG%, and the one time he did it he immediately regressed. When he had a chance to join a contender for $10-11m, he decided to join the Pistons (with Drummond and Monroe) for $13m - why do you think that is? You think he needs to improve his efficiency from bad to average. You think I'm expecting him to become ultra efficient. What's really the case here is: Josh Smith has to make a change unprecedented in his 10-year career of huge magnitude just to go from his all-nba-worst efficiency to a just below average efficiency and still he would be a bad fit in our offense. If he can't hit 3's, it's bad. If he doesn't shoot 3's, it's still bad. How is that going to work?

We build this team around stars. If we got Bosh, we build around him and Harden/Howard. Josh Smith is a role player, and he doesn't fit at all. What are we going to do? Ask Harden or Howard to alter their ultra efficient offensive games? Tell Parsons to stand around outside because the paint is even more clogged? Hope Beverley develops a better 3pt shot?

His defense at that price is not worth all that risk. Two teams have now fallen for the promise of Josh Smith, and the failure has been seen in different colors, over a long period of time. Josh Smith becoming even average on offense is a pipe dream unless he has had an internal dramatic shift of character. And I mean that. I specifically mean that this shift will not happen just because of advice of the staff or the players, because that has failed more than any other thing. It has to be that for some reason, Josh Smith changed in such a profound way that his own family wouldn't recognize him anymore.

OR. The Pistons could send us an almost unprotected first rounder. I would take that deal.

 

Josh Smith in a vacuum is an inefficient player that is overpaid.

However for the Houston Rockets....he might be just what the DR ordered.

 

don't know if it is a good idea, but rep to OP for making a compelling case

 

Oh god, stop the madness people, Josh Smith is completely terrible on the court and in the locker room, you could offer Detroit a stale bread PB&J sandwich for Smith and they'd leap at the chance to get rid of that loser.

 

His shot chart looks similar to jones. Jones operates in the paint mostly and that's where he earns his points. Smith is the better defender by far. If the offensive flow can reduce his touches his number of shot attempts ought to go down too. Might get pissy though if harden doesn't pass him the ball though....

 

Well one of the knocks on Jones is that he often falls in love with his jumper that is really weak just like Smith, though Jones is young enough to where he can still be broken of his bad habits and he's not a cancer in the locker room like Smith.