Once upon a time Beard was a 4th quarter ASSASSIN, Right?

Actually, James Harden's layup FG% was a staggering 65% last season. Among top 10 Free Throw Attempt Leaders, James Harden is significantly higher than guys like Westbrook (55%) or Cousins (56%) and even Davis (60%). In fact, James Harden is 7th in the league (with at least 200 attempts) in lay up percentage.

What's even more amazing? James Harden had the 14th highest total lay up attempts, so his volume is respectable.

What is even more amazing? James Harden is assisted on 8% of his layups. Among players with at least 150 lay up attempts (134 players in total), James Harden is dead last in layups assisted. For comparison, Westbrook is assisted on 11% of his layup, Lebron is assisted on 30% of his layups, Curry 64% of his layups etc.

That means, James Harden has practically created over 90% of his own layup shots, with a volume so high he ranks 15th in the league in lay up attempts, and an efficiency so good that he crushes many of his MVP competitors like Leonard (55%) and Westbrook (55%). Lebron obviously being the exception at 71%.

That is a by the book definition of one of the deadliest dribble penetration threat in the NBA. That means anytime James Harden has the ball and he chooses to attack the basket, there is a very very good chance you'll end up with at least 2 points.

 

His greatest strength is clearly drawing the defense, destroying it when help doesn't come, and still being highly effective when help does come.

I kinda want to say, ask me in a month, so we can assess this leaner/meaner Harden physique this year.

But based upon his two MVP years, the difference to me is indeed he was faster when he won his first MVP, but 2nd MVP year he executed significantly more alley-oops on his drives that he probably takes all the way himself in 2015....and the noticeable rise in FG% at rim under MDA vs 2015 indicates that.

And yes, I do indeed think defenses are playing his drives tougher as he gets better. I don't like the amount of 3s he settles for, but I do think he's looking past his primary defender and seeing the defenses behind the point of attack more than the casual fan is. Where he shoots more 3s off the dribble than WB does in ASSASSIN Time, WB stops at the elbow for a J more. Both indicate how much the defenses key on their drives. Harden appears to take the 3 for efficiency reasons, while WB likes that elbow J.

Note also, Harden's TS% is significantly higher when he won his second MVP than his first one.

Lastly, I also think he just overthinks the play more now (as a weakness), since he is supposed to explore more options for the team. He's learning. That should improve.

 

65% 2 years ago.
68.2% last year.

When comparing totals to the league, we really need to factor in times he's fouled on layups versus the league. Those don't count as FGA.

 

I know. And we all agree why that was ... he was heavier and didn't give a f2ck. And even when we agree he was heavier last year, too, the 24% under MDA is system vs the 31%, along with the big FG% differences between the two, indicates that.

 

I'm using basketball reference's shot finder, and looking up specifically lay up. Numbers seem to change using different sites and different ways of playing with it (nba stats has his restricted area scoring percentage at 66%), but all seem to hang around the elite >65% range.

Which actually makes it all the more impressive. For those who would argue that he only "plays for the foul", his volume indicates there are a significant number of attempts that did not result in a foul, and among those attempts he finished at elite efficiency.

 

Mr Clutch and I were both using bbref, as well. Sorry, I thought you just posted the wrong year, since they were identical numbers.

Anyhoo, we used the 0-3' distance here: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01.html

Where does bbref say just "layups"

btw: I'm pretty sure all stats from bbref are being scraped from the NBA.com official scorer pbp playbook. NBA.com stats go further in some areas, by using the sports-vu camera data, for stuff like distance the defender is away, and how many dribbles, etc. But bbref doesn't pay for that data...they scrape distance from the PBP feeds of nba.com official scorers pbp. but anyhoo, I usually go to bref, first on things, since it's so faster to look up various things.

 

Thread from last season, Harden clutch stats:

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.php?threads/is-james-harden-clutch.282832/

 

Harden was atrocious in late game situations last year; anyone with an ounce of objectivity should have noticed that.

As people keep pointing out, if Harden doesn't incorporate more of his signature midrange step-back jumpers back into his game, he's not going to be reliable in clutch moments because teams are just going to clog up the lanes so that he can't drive, and in terms of shooting threes, well Harden is just not that good of a three-point shooter anymore, which sucks but that's the reality.

 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/shot_finder.cgi

I used the shot finder. You can select "lay up" option for shot type which actually separates it into different specific shots. It can even separate shots into hook shot, tip shot etc.

Selection bias probably affects it somewhat (would a floater count as a layup or a short range shot?), but doubt the noise is that strong.

 

This has turned into a great thread, sorry I missed it until now. Lots of good analysis going on instead of poo flinging.

 

thinly disguised James-doesn't-move-off-the-ball-enough argument

 

great thread, and i applaud all the contributions with data analysis that people made. very informative!

i however don't have any data to backup by contribution, just 25 years of watching the nba. here's what i think is the issue with james...who by the way, i think should've been a 2x MVP right now. i love the guy, i just think he's been misused.

james isn't the type of scorer that jordan or kobe was. its more difficult for him to get a shot off against multiple defenders. he doesn't have the lift on his jumpshot, or the high release point to make it possible for him to get off a good look while contested. instead, he must use his dribble and footwork to get an open look, and he's great at that. but if the defense catches up to contest, or if he can't get open he usually passes off to the open man because he simply won't get a good shot off. the best scorers at his position like kobe, jordan, clyde were able to shoot over the defense and didn't really need to be open to score, and thats what made them great closers. james is a great scorer obviously, but IMO not a great closer because of this.

the other issue is how he finishes at the rim. top notch for sure, but he always finishes under the rim. almost always with a layup. at the end of a game that is simply not good enough. the best closers will attack above the rim and look to dunk at the end of a close game because defenses (especially deep in the playoffs) will be protecting the rim at the end of the game. if you want to finish, you've got to go over the top. or, you can stop short for some sort of floater or jump shot in the paint, but going at the rim for a layup for the win won't work.

MDA's genius was to recognize that james isn't in the mold of jordan, but more of magic. he's great at breaking down defenses, and is best used as a facilitator first, scorer second. james needs a closer in order to win big. he and paul still make a great pairing because both are amazing at breaking down the defense and making role players into scorers. they can win 60 games and have a punchers chance at contending, but give them a legit scorer/closer and they will be a championship team.

 

yes, as great as Harden is, he can't score at will when the defenders are all over him (without the help of free throws, of course) like Jordan or Kobe. Also, his decision making and handles get quite sloppy at times which prevents him from being considered a truly great PG, IMO. I think Harden is a very good player, but we need to realize he has some major limitations, because that's the only way we can have real discussions about which type of players to bring in who can cover up his shortcomings and complement his overall game.

Just shouting "Harden is the best", "Harden is the God" will lead us to nowhere, and sometimes I think Morey has too much faith in Harden as a scorer and passer, because for years we didn't really have that second guy who could've helped Harden in that department. And I do think Harden did a great job overall given his natural talent level, but at the same time the qualities you mentioned (lack of vertical leap, playing under the rim) plus his usual sloppy turnovers and defense does set the ceiling for Harden as a basketball player, which in my opinion explains a lot in terms of why he has relatively struggled in the post-season when the defense gets real tight.

 

This is all poo flinging. Look at what defines these values behind all the analysis.

People see charts, graphs, technicals and go googy gaga over it but literally have no comprehension. Then, the others state it to try to be smarter than they are.

All this **** these two are spewing is utter nonsense.

SIL

 

Talks about comprehension but is obviously not reading the thread.

 

Talks about not reading the thread and comprehension, yet fails to deliver where I'm wrong. Typical scrub.

SIL

 

I wonder if James just doesn't practice those mid range step backs anymore. He rarely EVER takes them and now when he does, like last night, he misses them all.

That step back used to be deadly.

 

*delete

 

Yeah, that's right boy. Don't try me.

SIL

 

Harden is 0-11 for 4 points in his last two 4th quarters.