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[Official] Texans @ Redskins

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by Castor27, Nov 13, 2018.

  1. donkeypunch

    donkeypunch Contributing Member

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    I have that feeling too. Hes been here his whole career, he loves Houston, and his best buddy bloseph is still here. I think hell take mid grade money to stay.
     
    Rudyc281 likes this.
  2. Nimo

    Nimo Member

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    I think it will all depend on how well the running game is doing early. If Miller is able to get it going, you will see more big pass plays like the Miami game. I really wish the Texans would have gotten a more powerful RB in the offseason. And kept the FB. Now they are using their 3rd round rookie TE as a FB to help the line. Having a big back, that runs better than Bliue, to complement Lamar will do wonders for the offense.
     
  3. RasaqBoi

    RasaqBoi Member

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  4. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    They ran 26 plays through 3Qs v Miami: 14 runs; 12 passes. The passes included a 4th down TD (not conservative), as well as a 73-yard TD (also not conservative). The first play of the 4Q was a 49-yard TD (not conservative).

    I don't even know what you're arguing here. No; a run-first approach is not conservative if it's used to open up big passing plays, which is exactly what happened v. Miami.
     
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  5. Svpernaut

    Svpernaut Contributing Member

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    Further, the run-first approach to open up the passing game, especially the play action, is the foundation of the Erhardt-Perkins system which the Texans offense is based upon... which also just happens to be the most successful offensive system of the modern NFL era - and there really isn't even a close competitor in terms of Super Bowl victories.

    I find that most people who complain about the Texans offense tend to be huge college football fans who are used to seeing prolific spread offensive assaults in the NCAA. What I guess they fail to realize, is that the spread offense doesn't work in the NFL, because defenders are too fast and athletic.

    The most prolific college spread offensive QBs always have to adjust their game when coming to the NFL, DW4 included... hell, some QBs go through high school and college without ever taking a snap under center. That **** doesn't fly in the NFL, where LBs are faster and more athletic than 90% of the DBs in Division I NCAA programs.

    The only "conservative" drives in the NFL, are all-run drives to grind the clock. Every single NFL team, literally all 32 use the run to open up the pass. Some are just better at doing it, usually because they have more dynamic play calling because they have elite skill position players.

    The Chiefs are the perfect example, as are the Patriots. Without Gronk, the Patriots are a completely different team - because with Gronk on the field, they are able to use the short passing game to open up the longer passing game.

    This is the very freaking reason the Texans offense is more dynamic when Keke is playing.
    Without a dynamic slot, or a freak of nature TE, you must rely on the run game and pretty much the run game alone to open up the passing game. Losing Fuller was tough, but losing Keke would have been a much bigger stress on the offense because short passes like slants, crossing routes and wheel routes can be run on nearly every play. Deep threats are more limited.
     
    #85 Svpernaut, Nov 16, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2018
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  6. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Contributing Member
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    I wouldn't even want a jersey of Donkey. Dang Hopkins, I'm disappointed you are all buddy buddy with him.
     
    Killatron 2000 likes this.
  7. Nimo

    Nimo Member

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    LOL
    We're both picking sample sizes to make our points. If you remove the last four minutes of the 3rd Quarter and the fourth quarter, it was a very run-heavy approach with no completed passes longer than 13 yards (with the exception of the catch and run by Fuller). All the big pass plays happened in the last quarter and a half. I think because of the success they had running the ball early in the game.

    My argument (not really) is that the game plan was not that different in the Miami game and the Denver games. The difference is that the early success rushing the ball didn't happen in Denver. You brought up conservative, not me.
     
  8. Nimo

    Nimo Member

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    I agree and then disagree. Run setting up the pass is a lot easier than pass setting up the run but there have been very successful offenses that didn't depend on the run game.

    I don't think people want a college-style spread offense. What people want is a little less predictability and adjustment when it seems what you're doing isn't working. The Texans overall actually run less on 1st down than most people think. It's just the frustration of running Lamar Miller down the Miller early in games when everyone knows that is what you're doing. Even broadcasters say the same thing. Andre Ware has criticized the predictability of the offense multiple times when calling the games. And I know play-action is a lot more effective when you're able to run down the middle but they just don't have the personnel for that. Their RB is not Blount-like power running back. Their guards and center aren't big LOS pile movers. They got rid of their FB. I don't think anyone would complain about running the ball if it was working. Just like no one complained about it in the Jags and Dolphin games.

    If the slot is so important to this offense, Bruce Ellington should still be on the roster.
     
  9. Nimo

    Nimo Member

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    speaking of...

     
  10. Svpernaut

    Svpernaut Contributing Member

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    You're picking a single data point, while I and others in this thread bring in quite a few data points in defense of the Texans offense. The more data you have to back your claim, the stronger and more accurate that data tends to be.

    It's called hypothesis testing, where you utilize the Null Hypothesis (H₀) and an Alternative Hypothesis (H₁) to determine the Statistical Significance (α) of any given data set. This method is preferred as it removes outliers from the equation which normalizes the data and allows for further analysis with what is known as the Z-Test and P-Test. The more data you have, the more accurate it gets.

    In data science it is literally impossible to find a correlation with only a single data point. I've extrapolated several other data points over 4+ years of games that show a positive correlation between the Texans turnover rate and win rate. The less they turn the ball over, the more they win. The more they throw the ball or "gun sling" the more they turn it over - unless they first run successfully. Along with that data, and other items like total yards not always equating offensive success, and BoB's success with a plethora of mediocre and outright bad QBs.

    I could go on, but hopefully you get what I am saying. Success and skill in football, and sports in general are tracked by countless metrics and statistics - so trying to defend a stance one way or the other without looking and analyzing the entire picture is literally only fooling yourself. By literally every single metric, what BoB has been able to do in Houston with the offensive weapons he's had is astounding. We now have over four years of data to examine BoB, and it proves to pretty much anyone who looks at it that he's a damn good coach.

    Is he perfect? No, of course not - but when compared with his peers he's easily top 10 and if he had real weapons he could easily move to a top 5, there simply isn't a way to accurately compare coach success with and without an elite QB (so like BoB vs the Hoodie) because of the overwhelming importance of the QB in the NFL (that I know of - I have no doubt PHDs out there can do that).

    The Texans and pretty much every other team in the league have mathematicians from Harvard, MIT, Stanford or other elite schools crunching the numbers, helping them to make these sorts of decisions. That's why he was extended after his worst season. The numbers prove out that he was worth the investment. Brian Gaine is a metrics guy, so the moment the numbers don't match up for BoB, he's probably gone.
     
    #90 Svpernaut, Nov 16, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2018
  11. Nimo

    Nimo Member

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    I'm not sure if you picked the wrong post to reply to or the wrong poster to respond to or the wrong thread altogether LOL. None of what you said applies to the post you quoted. I was not criticizing the coach or the offense. I was just simply saying though the results looked different, the playcalling was very similar in both games. And I explained why. I wasn't bashing the coaching staff; not in that post. I'm not even sure what single data point you think I was picking.
     
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  12. Svpernaut

    Svpernaut Contributing Member

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    Yeah, sorry was meant for the Fire BoB thread. Had multiple reply threads open. I'll leave it though - still relevant points regarding data. I think a lot of the critics of the team simply don't understand the metrics that should be used to determine how well a team is doing.
     
    Nimo likes this.
  13. Rockets34Legend

    Rockets34Legend Contributing Member

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  14. HR Dept

    HR Dept Contributing Member

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    The Texans’ Veterans Day gear is on point. I’ll be sideline fresh Sunday watching the Texans win thier 7th straight.
     
  15. tallanvor

    tallanvor Contributing Member

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    Or a jersey that has the n-word written in big letters on it. How are you suppose to wear that in public in front of kids? Green ruined the jersey.
     
  16. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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  17. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

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    Who wears a autographed jersey out in public lmao? That’s corny.
     
  18. bilaal14

    bilaal14 Member

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    Damn Alex smith is going to kill Mckinny in coverage tomorrow.

    Deshaun Watson is going to kill the whole redskins team with 4 total touchdowns.

    Texans win big.
     
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  19. solid

    solid Contributing Member

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    Prediction: every first down play will be Miller up the middle. I wonder who else knows this?
     
    #99 solid, Nov 17, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2018
  20. theimpossibles1

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    I bet everything I own that Fuller doesn't get a single carry all game.
     
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