Definitely looks like a guy that probably won't require Tucker or Whitley involved in a potential deal.
The Marlins owe Chen and Prado $23MM next year; if I'm the Astros, I swallow both of those deals (plus Yelich's - he's not exactly playing for peanuts) if I can snag Yelich and Realmuto.
If Crane gives Luhnow the budget, that would be a good move. That Chen deal, though...woof. Think Astros would prefer to give prospects even if they have to give up Tucker, Alvarez+. In event that Astros need accept those two deals, but can't afford it, Tigers might be an interesting third team as they may take some prospects in exchange for accepting bad contracts as well.
Chen's health status would be the main question mark for absorbing that contract. If it looks like he's gonna be complete dead weight than no thanks. He's a been a pretty capable back end starter over his career. He would certainly be overpaid, but if it saves us one of our top prospects and nets us Yelich or Realmuto, I'd be all for it.
It would be a nice luxury to add Realmuto or Yelich, but the guy I would go after is Chris Archer. You need to think about replacing Keuchel and Chris Archer's contract is so team friendly it would go a long way towards signing guys like Altuve and Correa. Archer is only owed 34 million over the next 4 years. Realistically, Keuchel will cost 34 million for a season and a half when he gets his new deal. Also, Archer has pitched 200 innings 3 years in a row. Keuchel has only pitched 200 innings twice in his career. It would cost Whitley or Tucker but Archer would be a great piece for us long term, and having Verlander, Keuchel, Archer, McCullers, and Morton would give us a solid chance at winning the World Series again in 2018.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/worldseries/history/winners Repeating as WS winners is no easy task. In fact, it hasn't happened once in the 21st century. The most recent examples of it are the 1998, 99, 00 Yankees and the 92-93 Blue Jays. That said, those that feel we are still the favorite to win again in 2018 need a history lesson. Pretty sure every WS winner thought they could do it again and failed (mostly). IMO. we really need that TOR starter in addition to what we have already done.
No team is more likely than the Astros to win in 2018. Astros will not likely win in 2018. These are not mutually exclusive ideas. Winning a World Series is hard even if you have the best team and even if you add a TOR pitcher.
I dont disagree. If I remember right, the most likely team is what, 5-1 odds? 20%? Right now, we have some payroll flexibility. I want us to capitalize on it before we get locked up re-signing core guys. Sure, adding a TOR pitcher doesn't guarantee anything, but it gives us a better chance. A move we may not be able to make latter.
Our farm system at this point isn't what it used to be. It's better to spend money than prospect these days because our overall salary is still relatively low. Once we have to actually re-sign a core player we will be looking at potential luxury tax issues (or just Jim Crane pocketbook issues). Since there really isn't a top tier FA the Astros really can use except maybe Darvish, this is a good year to absorb some salary in prep for the future.
I'd say Wade Davis is the top FA that the Astros should/should have pursued. But, with the signing of Smith and Rondon, looks like we're done with free agents in the bullpen.
I hope Luhnow is active on the trade market. I don't feel like the additions we've made so far are good enough -- we better not get complacent.
There is always a cost to acquire someone, though. Any addition this year isn't going to swing odds much in 2018, and not sure costs to future World Series odds would be worth it. Now if the ToR starter has a great contract, can help for 3+ years, and can be acquired at a good price, sure. ToR starters usually don't usually come at a good price, though. As I said, "if Crane gives Luhnow the budget." While there isn't a league salary cap, I'm sure Crane gives Luhnow a budget even if there is some wiggle room. I'm skeptical that Crane will allow Astros to be operate at a deficit. If it is in the budget, Luhnow should try it provided it doesn't get in the way of keeping someone like Altuve.
Wade Davis’ peripherals have really been trending the wrong way. He seems like the type of player Ludnow would avoid: big name whose production is suspect.
I remember from the Yoan Moncada sweepstakes people said the reason the bidding didn’t get even higher was because baseball teams don’t usually have that much extra cash floating around each particular year. This makes sense in how star contracts are structured, more years and less AAV. So Whatever Houston does this year will have basically no impact Altuve. It’s not like Crane making an extra $10mil this year means he can give Altuve that much more in 2 years. More likely, our 2019 season success will drive that discussion more than anything else. Right now Its just a matter of who much less of a profit he’s willing to make in 2018. Before this year he’s preferred to give up prospects over money, but that made more sense when the Astros hadn’t even made it past the ALDS
1) $10 million likely matters to Crane. If he's cool with it, I'm cool with it. I just doubt he's cool with it. 2) Crane is the one making decision. 3) We're not talking about $10 million. 4) Altuve will be a free agent after the 2019 season. Chen will still be owed $22 million in 2020. Are you saying Chen getting paid $22 million in 2020 will basically have no impact on whether the Astros can sign Altuve not counting the 48 miilion that would go to Prado and Chen in 2018 and 2019? 5) Yelich and Realmuto will still be under contract as well so add up their money as well. Feel free to disagree in particular to #1. He's added some money, but there is still enough times that he's been cheap that I will continue to believe he will remain frugal until he provides sufficient evidence that he leans more like a drunken sailor.
Nothing. They lost out on Ohtani and Stanton and have done nothing to upgrade their rotation. Biggest move is trading for a scrub like Matt Kemp
