And we wonder why defensive metrics are so poor... we can't even figure out if players on this team are good, not good, or just not good compared to the best of the best. IMO, the shifts should/will continue to happen as long as it works more often than not. They should always strive to have 3 CF types in the OF, unless they need the extra bat. If there's such a thing as excellent "team" defense in baseball, the Astros have it. They will continue to stress/favor the acquisition/development of players who can be versatile in their positions.... unless their bat is just that good.
Teams obviously have some sense of how good individual defenders are. While the Astros shift a lot, its not difficult to draw out a radius of plays Correa can make to his right/left/back/forward from any given spot and compare that to say Andrelton Simmons or even Jeter.
Right? So he's not as terrible as the worst SS in MLB history and he's not as great as the best. I'm ok with that.
Astros the past couple of years have given up a lot more runs than would be expected based on what pitchers control. Up the middle players have the greatest impact on team defense. It ain't all Yuli, Fisher, and Marwin. That said, I'm fine having less than great defensive players at 2B, SS, and CF if it means Altuve, Correa, and Springer get to bat.
How do metrics take the shifts into account? You're a really sharp guy, but nobody has answered that question yet.
I dont know the stats, but my eyes tell me Springer/Correa/Altuve are well above avg defenders with great bats and the clutch gene. I'll take that over the Adam Everett's of the world any day.
Fangraphs is projecting the Astros to win 101 games with the league's worst defense. How many games do you think the Astros are going to win this year?
Defense is really easy to misjudge using the eye test. We have a group of bat >>>> glove guys that are young, athletic, and make most of the bread and butter plays as well as some of the difficult ones. They do look very good using the eye test. But it’s difficult to judge what plays they should/could be making. Adam Everett didn’t look nearly as good using the eye test than he did with stats because he was attempting plays on stuff that others wouldn’t even make a play on.
The young players have positive, above average batting WAR and slightly negative fielding WAR. They can aspire to be average fielders, but their jobs are safe
105, unless Hinch steps off the gas in September bc the team is so far ahead in the standings. Then it may be around 102.
They adjust odds of making a play based on being in a shift for shifts instead of using odds of making a play based on not playing in a shift. Different shifts have different odds.
How is it the league's worst defense? PECOTA has the Astros at 11.2 FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), with the Royals in the defensive cellar at -33.2 FRAA. Positive 11.2 FRAA isn't great (Rays lead the AL at +26.4 for example) but not sure how anyone would think the Astros have the worst defense in the AL.
