Sticking to what I’ve said. Correa has an exceptional season and (based on what lindor gets) will get a 250-300 million 10 year contract. he hurts his back again and doesn’t play over 150 games... well. He becomes a high risk free agent
He is going to be 29 in November. If he hits like he did in his last 2 full seasons I would expect a contract around 28-32 million a year for 6-8 seasons depending on how many teams join the bidding war.
I remember when Story and Tyler Great White came into the league at the same time. Both were producing at a high level and Kurkjian did a segment on both of them to highlight how special they were. Then Tyler took a nosedive and went the polar opposite direction. Good times.
His numbers away from Coors Field are pretty mediocre - 0.760 OPS vs 0.994 at Coors. He should not be getting one of these mega-contracts, but he probably will.
This sucks. With the payroll flexibility beginning next season I’ll be pretty disappointed if they go shopping in the bargain bin to replace Correa.
I mentioned this before but I’d like to take a few minutes to reiterate that letting Correa walk is not the end of the world. First of all, yes... Correa has been a great player when healthy and confident in his health. That’s a BIG key- his health. I get that there have been some “freak accidents”, but the back thing still worries me. I look at the Tatis and Lindor money and I personally can’t justify Correa getting that type of money. I wouldn’t go over 8 years for 200$ million(and judging by the shortstop market- he’s gone). The one thing that will be extremely hard to replace(especially with Springer gone) is Correa’s leadership in the clubhouse. He’s embraced the role well and he’s proven to be a big time performer on the big stage. The reason Correa was offered 6 years 120 million is simple. He hasn’t been able to consistently stay on the field... I have seen many posts and threads in the past voicing frustrations about Correa’s injuries, his bat being inconsistent upon returning from those injuries, people wanting to trade him in the past. They were all valid concerns. Those same concerns are why he’s not worth over 200$ million dollars. How do we replace Correa? First off... let’s enjoy the season. I’m excited to see a motivated Correa who bet on himself to try to cash in big. He wants to prove he can stay healthy for a full season and perform at a high level. -Jeremy Pena might be the real deal. His glove is phenomenal. He got off to a slow start in spring training but really started to heat up towards the end. Hit a bomb off Degrom and started to have some really solid AB’s. He’s bulked up and has a full year to show the front office that he is ready for the show as a potential Correa replacement. If not, we start looking at other options which include: -moving Bregman over to SS and targeting a 3B via free agency or trade. Notable free agent 3B next offseason: Arrenado(opt-out), Kris Bryant, Jose Ramirez(team option) -targeting a SS via free agency- as we know, there will still be plenty of star studded shortstops on the market next offseason. Notable: Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien - Staying in house with Jeremy Pena and upgrading at other spots like starting pitching and/or 1st base, OF. Notable SP: Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard, Lance Lynn, Verlander. Notable 1B: Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo Notable OF: Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Nick Castellanos. While losing Carlos will suck, it will leave flexibility to fill other holes and we have a whole season to see how much Yordan and Tucker can carry the load, see if Breggy and Altuve can return to form. It’s very early to talk about next offseason but for the folks who are panicking about losing Correa, we will be just fine, IMO. Enjoy the season because we’re absolutely contenders this year and I believe we still will be moving forward.
Lindor and Correa have identical .833 career OPS and Lindor only has a single WAR point over Correa despite having almost 1000 more at bats than Correa. Correa is also a proven post season performer. If Correa goes to free agency next year as a 27 year old that plays the most premium position on the field, someone will give him $30 million per. He may take a $5 million per year discount because of his health history, but he’s getting huge money.
It makes absolutely no sense for that to be true. We already knew that contract was offered last week when Correa addressed the negotiations publicly. The Astros didn’t offer him the same deal over the weekend. No chance. Otherwise, you would have seen reports saying that negotiations have halted, and Correa likely makes more public comments.
None of that matters if you can't play, Lindors numbers are from 1000 more bats than Correa hich in itself says he is the more valuable player. Availability matters.
Looking ahead, Houston will need to add about 10 wins worth of talent to be among the best teams in the league next season. I think they will assess which young players they think can be 2+ win guys and design their offseason plan around that. They should have $50-60M in payroll flexibility. I am sure they will try to use some of that for extensions (Tucker, Alvarez, Valdez, etc.), but there should be room for at least 1 major free agent signing. Pena, Leon, Nova, and Toro on the position player side are guys I think could emerge a long term pieces in the lineup as soon as 2022. Urquidy, Javier, Garcia, Abreu, Solis, Solomon, and Brown are guys on the pitching side that could alleviate the need to go pay for an ace. I think this 2022 roster would be likely on par with the other elite teams: 2B Altuve LF Brantley IF Bregman DH Alvarez TBD Free Agent (could be a SS like Baez, Story, or Semien, or another player like Bryant, Rizzo, etc.) RF Tucker IF Gurriel TBD Prospect (whoever emerges from Straw, Pena, Leon, Toro, etc.) C Maldonado Bench: Diaz, Castro, Prospect Rotation: McCullers, Odorizzi, Valdez, Urquidy, Prospect (whoever emerges from Javier, Garcia, Abreu, Solis, Solomon, etc.) Bullpen: Baez, Raley, Paredes, Taylor, Stanek, Pressly, Pruitt, Prospectx2
