Agreed - but if Lindor's number is between $325-$385MM, there's no possible way Correa will take anything less than $200MM. These next 6 years are theoretically Correa's prime years . If he took $120MM for those years, even if he were a superstar, he'd never make anything close to Lindor's $$ in his whole career. Given the number of people that make $15MM for being not-great (just in recent years with the Astros, Reddick at $12MM+, Beltran at $16MM, McCann at $18MM, etc), Correa's downside is pretty limited. Even if he's mediocre, he can make another $100MM in his career at $12-$15MM/yr on some short deals. But his upside of a great season is going from $120MM guaranteed to $250MM+. The risk/reward is way too skewed for him to go for an offer like this.
I think what Correa gets will largely depend on how he does this year. There are only so many teams with the finances to pay over 200 million for a player, and there are so many shortstops on the market. An MVP caliber season from Correa and he may move to the front of the class and have the handful of teams with finances bid for his services. I agree that the downside at 120 million is somewhat limited unless his back goes out. Also, my understanding is that the $120,000,000 offer was the Astros opening offer and they likely would have come up more. My pure speculation is he wants something that starts with a "two" for his next deal. I think the Astros would go up into the mid to high one's.... in the real of 150-170 possible.
I agree with this. If Correa declines a “best offer” before his deadline, he’s likely walking... and it is what it is. It gives you a full year to fully evaluate Jeremy Pena as a potential Carlos replacement, there will be a plethora of quality SS options in the free agent market, and as you alluded to... bregman can shift over to short and you can explore 3B options and prepare to allocate the “Correa money” into 1st base options(especially if they feel good about Pena) to replace Yuli after this season. I love Correa. I’m thankful for all he’s done to help bring a championship here and he’s definitely developed into a team leader. But if he walks... it wouldn’t be the end of the world and may allow us to fill some other holes with quality players and keep the team equally as competitive as we would be WITH Correa
There's going to be lots more "Albert Pujols" players in the future cashing checks in their late 30's or early 40's for their prior performance.
I wonder if Correa would take a 3year $90 million dollar deal? Gives him a nice bump and allows the Astros to extend the core group a little clinger.
There's zero chance of this. These $300MM/10-yr type players (Correa likely puts himself in the Lindor category, whether anyone does or not) are generally getting something like $50MM for the first few years, $30MM for the next few, and $10MM for the last few in terms of what teams are really paying for. No way Correa is taking a discount for the first few without the benefit of getting overpaid on the backend.
I don’t necessarily agree that Carlos Correa has played his last game as an Astro if an extension can’t be reached by tomorrow. The Astros have plenty of payroll flexibility for the 2022 season to afford one of the five elite shortstops available after the season or an elite hitter at a different position (Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Freddie Freeman, and Nolan Arenado - if he opts out.). Either they retain Correa or they likely will sign one of the other elite hitters that will be available in free agency after this season. They certainly aren’t going to replace Correa with Jeremy Pena in 2022 and call it a day.
I was trying to think of a number that felt like a middle ground this morning, and 8/200 was exactly where I settled as well. That gives Correa two more years and bumps the per year average by $5 million from the initial offer. I can get behind that deal. $25 million is high given his injury history, but not if you factor in postseason performance. And it would pay him until he's 35-36, likely near the end of his career, but not past an age where he would no longer be a useful player. I would love to see a deal get done today. This would definitely be a cloud hanging over the season if it doesnt.
Bingo. Because Bregman can easily move over and become a great offensive SS, the Astros have to effectively value Correa as a 3B.
