Playing defense helps. DH's are limited to their value hitting. Harper's value at DH likely is about as much as his value on RF.
You can play Reddick or Tucker in RF. Harper’s value to us now still outweighs the maybe that we can resign Springer or Correa later. Harper also offers the versatility of playing average defense in the OF.
Not to mention it’s years 1-3 for Correa and years 5-7 of Harper. I mean Correa is younger than Alex Bregman. We should be weary of his back but what he did at his age before getting hurt is abnormally fantastic. He’s a year removed from being considered pretty much the best player/value in baseball.
His back is a gigantic red flag. He's a 6ft 4in shortstop that dives all over the place and has a high torque swing. His OPS dropped over 200 points last year. I would be extremely hesitant to sign him long term. Correa is starting to develop that injury prone tag. He broke his ankle and missed a chunk of the 2014 season in the minors, he only played 109 games in 2017 and 110 games in 2018. He could be the AJ Pollock of shortstops.
I missed the part where Correa is a pending free agent. His back has at this point, only been a problem for a season. We can be highly concerned but none of us know whether it’ll ever be an issue again. His other injuries are a result of either contact or sliding into a base. He is under club control for a long enough period of time to continue to evaluate his health. The point is that a healthy Correa is awesome and the time to determine his future contract isn’t by any means a pressing matter.
It’s not a pressing matter. However, if the question is whether to invest in a healthy Bryce Harper while our championship window is wide open, or not do so and hope for Correa to improve and want to resign on a team-friendly deal, well....
Love Street is not bad, haven't had much of their other stuff. At least they're not trying to make a Sextuple IPA.
I would see it as more of a "bird in the hand" thing. If you could sign Harper tomorrow for the same contract you could sign CC for in a couple of years...you sign Harper. I have minimal-to-zero faith that CC has any interest in staying with Houston.
The first year that Correa is possibly not an Astro is 2022. Talking about him as if he's gone, or no longer a critical part of this regime is pretty fruitless. Likewise, with an impending labor deal change, it may end up that the Astros can offer the most money to any of their own free agents.
He’s not gone and he’s a critical part. My point is that getting Harper at a short term high AAV is more important than hoping everything works out down the road with Correa or Springer.
It's also interesting to look at how much Correa's injuries cost him and saved the Astros in terms of dollars. Correa was on a similar path to Francisco Lindor until his injury in 2017. Correa won ROY and Lindor was runner up in 2015. In 2016 they had similar numbers. Correa had a little more power but Lindor had a higher batting average. In 2017 Lindor had a monster year. Correa's numbers probably would have been better than Lindor's in 2017 had he stayed healthy. Then in 2018 Lindor put up a similar year to his 2017 season. Meanwhile, Correa struggled massively after the back injury. Both players entered their first year of arbitration this year. Lindor signed for 10.55 million dollars. Correa will get at most 5 million and possibly 4.25 million if the Astros win arbitration. Those injuries cost Correa 5-6 million this year. Then his raises for his next two years will be limited because it is partly based on your previous salary as well as your performance. If both Correa and Lindor have similar number and hit 30 bombs with an OPS around 850-900 Lindor will be pushing 17-19 million while Correa will be lucky to get 11-12 million. It's possilbe Correa loses out on 20 million bucks over his arbitration years because of those injuries.
Yup. When Giles Kibbe (Astros general counsel) spoke in one of my law school lectures, one of the most interesting points was how awkward and painful arbitration can be. I'll never forget, at the time we were talking about Jason Castro's arbitration years. Castros team had all these metrics for how he was the greatest Astros hitting catcher of all time, and our brass came back with why he sucked. It's just a recipe for bad blood and resentment. It's inherently contentious and not ideal for the organization/clubhouse. I get that we need to save $$$, but I really hope we can work out an extension with Correa to avoid that process, a la Springer.
The deal is expiring in 2021. There are plenty of unhappy players with the current state of things, which makes it highly unlikely they will plan on extending the status quo. Any free agent to be who's deal expires after the CBA expires (like Correa) will likely be significantly impacted.
