I wonder if the Astros would play Gallo the same way in a late-inning closer game situation, where he can't beat you with a solo HR.... but him getting on base could certainly impact things.
There was some talk in the booth about it during the course of the Texas series. A point mentioned was that it puts a hitter at a disadvantage if you can make him do something he is not accustomed to. Make him think twice about his approach. Part of it is getting in his head.
The Astros would not appreciate power hitters attempting to bunt as Astros would prefer batters swing away and hit the ball into the teeth of the defense even with a few more solo shots given up. The shift is not typically used against guys that can bunt. As such, guys that bunt against the shift are typically power hitters and other batters that don't bunt often. Most likely outcome of a bunt attempt against the shift (60-65% of the time) is an 0-1 count with the defense attempting to shade more against the bunt on the next pitch. Of the bunt attempts that do make it fair, about 2/3s of them get the batter on base by a hit or error (a lot of pitcher throwing errors).
The Astros would most certainly welcome a power hitter, not accustomed to bunting, ATTEMPT to bunt... and eventually be subject to the algorithms and percentages that you mentioned. But yes... to agree with your point... the Astros don't want to concede anybody to get on base. But if a batter wants to try and beat the shift solely by bunting, which isn't a sure thing for most of these sorts of hitters, the shift is then possibly working on multiple levels.
The numbers I provided were what actual hitters did in actual games from a couple years ago in which the defense conceded a bunt. Granted, these hitters had to practice a lot to get to the point of getting bunt in play ~35% of the time. Astros are betting players won't put in the time. The Astros are going to the route that gives up less runs. The Astros don't fear any hitter enough that they would concede a 0.580 on-base average (on base average if hitter used hitter used all three strikes to try to put bunt in play) in a bases empty environment unless a pitcher or similar quality batter is next.
The Astros shifted more than any other team in 2017; the Astros won the 2017 World Series; "Hinch is moron" is a bit much. The Astros were in a shift on the last play of game 7 of the World Series (nobody was playing 3rd base). If they weren't shifted, then that game would have continued. When the shift doesn't work, it of course looks bad. Just like the Rockets, the Astros are big on analytics and right now the stats are saying to use these shifts. If players adjust then the defense will adjust accordingly.
Agreed. My premise was that the Astros know these guys can’t or wont bunt. If they do it routinely, they’ll change their strategy.
The typical shift still has a guy on the left side, so the bunt has to have some quality to it. I understand why that isn't bunted on. But in our super 3-4 shift, if you can bunt the ball to the left side at all it is a free hit, hell maybe even a double. You don't have to deaden it or anything. I just can't believe major league hitters are sooo terrible at it that they can't even do that much.
I've always understood that to a degree, tall guys make it to the NBA because their size is so rare, therefore much smaller group of players to choose from so actual skills aren't as sharp. But all MLB hitters are there because they are the best at see ball hit ball. I just can't believe this isn't about pride more than anything else. Even a 50% success rate is a .500 OBP and 1.000 OPS. Unless they don't start punishing teams for such extreme measures, it's gonna become even more common.
Yep. Any basketball player should be able to do the underhand free throw at a precentage high enough that the hack-a-Shaq defense doesn't work. It is part macho pride, part just understanding odds that certain players think they are on team to hit for power. They see bunting as limiting the amount they can help team. I wish the Astros would have waited until the postseason to unveil the 4-man OF. Every slow LHB on a good team should be practicing bunts.
Will the Astros have a counter-measure if teams start bunting more? I expect they'd have something.... or they'd just scrap the shift (sorta like they partially abandoned the "send everybody home, regardless of where or how hard the ball is hit, force the OF to make a perfect throw" strategy... that actually won them game 2 of the ALCS).
I see several smaller, guards/forwards in the NBA that have trouble with FT's too... Lonzo Ball being a perfect example. Usually gets fixed with practice. I agree that MLB hitters should have the requisite hand/eye coordination to execute a bunt. Still usually needs to be practiced... and that is where the deficiency lies. Power hitters don't practice bunting... because why would they have to?
That is exactly how I thought of it when I was talking to some friends this weekend. You're a professional baseball player. At no time in your life did any coach ever teach you the basics of bunting? How embarrassing is it that a team is essentially giving you a hit and yet you can't do one of the most basic things in baseball. Doesn't even have to be a good bunt. Just place a ball down the freakin line and you might be looking at a double.
