[Offical] Astros vs. Red Sox ALCS

Rockets FTW · Oct 16, 2018

Houstunna said: ↑

2. Are the walks themselves as cautious as possible? In other words, if the teams are trying to walk Bregman, are they refusing to give him anything good to hit?

With Bonds, for instance, it wasn't just that he walked far more than any player in history. The Bonds treatment wasn't about ball four. It started on the first pitch, ball one.

Of the 578 walks Bonds was issued from 2002 to 2004, 57 percent were on four pitches, including 40 percent that were intentional walks. Only 23 percent came on 3-2 counts. Pitchers walking Bonds didn't give him two strikes very often because the entire point was to keep him from getting any strikes.

But eight of Bregman's 10 walks have come on full counts, and only one was intentional. Pitchers are trying to get him out. They're just not good at it, or as good as he is at not making an out. He's better at drawing walks than they are at avoiding them.

(Here's a detail: Only 15 of Bonds' 578 walks those three years -- 2.5 percent -- took seven or more pitches. Bregman has already got three of those in the postseason.)

3. Is the batter in front of Bonds getting the reverse Bonds treatment? After all, if you're afraid to pitch to a guy, then the worst thing you can do is walk the guy in front of him, which either forces you to pitch to your Bonds candidate with men on base or walk him with a runner already on first. It was, at least anecdotally, taken as a fact in the early 2000s that the batters in front of Bonds benefited by seeing more strikes, more hittable strikes, more fastballs.

But Jose Altuve, batting in front of Bregman, has so far seen fewer fastballs this postseason than he did in the regular season. And he has seen fewer pitches in the zone, too -- 41 percent of pitches, a sizable decrease from the 46 percent he saw in the regular season. It's true that Altuve has walked only twice this postseason -- consistent with his regular-season walk rate -- but it's more that Altuve continues to swing, rather than that pitchers are pounding him with strikes.

The absence of a few clues doesn't disprove anything, and Bregman really has drawn walks in 42 percent of his plate appearances. But, if not the Bonds treatment, what more banal phenomenon can explain this?

It's the batter! Just as walks, unlike home runs, can reveal the priorities of the pitcher, so too can they reveal the priorities of the hitter. And what we've seen so far is that Bregman, in the biggest games of the year, against some of the toughest pitchers in the game, and in generally close games, is working himself some walks.

Bregman was already one of the most patient hitters in the game this year. In the regular season, he swung at only 37 percent of the pitches he saw (eighth lowest in the game), including just 18 percent on pitches outside the strike zone (fourth lowest). In the postseason, though, he's swinging only 25 percent of the time, and at just 9.5 percent of pitches outside the zone. He has become, for two weeks at least, the most effective, most disciplined hitter in the world.

What separates the Bonds treatment from a hard-fought walk is how much the batter has to fight for it. The walks to focus on with Bregman this postseason aren't the intentional walk Cody Allen issued in the AL Division Series, with a runner on second and one out; or even the four-pitch walk Matt Barnes issued with a runner on first and two outs in the first game of the AL Championship Series. Rather, they're the walks he drew against Chris Sale and David Price in Games 1 and 2 of this series.

Sale started Bregman with back-to-back changeups, both close to catching the lowest part of the strike zone. Boston manager Alex Cora was chirping at the umpire when Sale didn't get the calls, but both were narrowly out of the zone -- the first one 6 percent likely to be called a strike, the second 13 percent -- and Bregman laid off both to get ahead 2-0. Sale's third pitch, a fastball, missed badly.

At this point, the Bonds treatment would call for an intentional fourth ball. But Sale threw two fastballs that caught plenty of the strike zone -- 97 and 99 percent likely to be called strikes -- and Bregman took them both. It was only when Sale badly yanked a 3-2 slider into the right-handed batter's box that Bregman drew the walk, which came leading off the inning, a terrible time for a pitcher to issue a walk.

The next night, Price also started Bregman with a changeup, again just out of the zone, again taken for a ball to start the at-bat. Price evened the count with a back-door cutter, then missed with a pair of fastballs, putting Bregman ahead 3-1. Price threw a fastball that Bregman fouled off, then a changeup -- which would have been a coin-flip call for the umpire -- that Bregman fought off. On his second 3-2 pitch, Price tried to dot a fastball on the inside corner. It was close, a great pitch, but a ball -- and Bregman took it for the walk.

It is fun to say "Bonds treatment," but it doesn't do credit to what Bregman is actually doing. He's earning these walks. Yes, opposing pitchers have been unusually wild against him, and yes, they are pitching him carefully. But he's the one who is turning this caution into offense. Against Sale, against Corey Kluber, against Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, he's grinding out walks that are turning into runs that are turning into Houston wins. He's not quite the kind of legend that Bonds is, the kind where the other team just gives up. He's the other kind who just keeps grinding.
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Pretty much sums up why I want Correa batting 3rd. But the LU today is pretty good.

Rockets FTW · Oct 16, 2018

el_locoteee said: ↑

This line up has been putting almost 7 runs per nine innings. The only reason we are not on a 5 game win streak is because of the most run allowed by Cole all year and probably the worst performance defensibly by the gold glove catchers, most likely of his career.

We are more than fine
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I get all that, my analysis is hinging off Correa getting quality, hittable pitches when he knows they would need an out before getting to Bregman. That's all I'm saying.

WhoDatStrosfan · Oct 16, 2018

Imo we can do it either way, but we need 2 of 3 at home to take some pressure off.

I do not think Cole will be as bad his next outing nor do I think Maldonado will be either. And all JV gave up was self inflicted. Would obviously like a bounce back game tonight.

JazzLakerHater · Oct 16, 2018

I still think we’re going to have to win one more in Boston. Going to be tough to beat that team 3 times in a row.

WhoDatStrosfan · Oct 16, 2018

JazzLakerHater said: ↑

I still think we’re going to have to win one more in Boston. Going to be tough to beat that team 3 times in a row.
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Agreed.

bloodwings19 · Oct 16, 2018

Kempy, I want to see some hugs.

CinematicFusion · Oct 16, 2018

Altuve needs to settle down at the plate. He has been swinging at everything. Swing at your pitches and make the pitcher pitch like Bregman is doing. If Bregman and Altuv both walk....fine. They will have to pitch González, Gurriel, Correa.
Key is Altuve’s approach

DieHard Rocket · Oct 16, 2018

CinematicFusion said: ↑

Altuve needs to settle down at the plate. He has been swinging at everything. Swing at your pitches and make the pitcher pitch like Bregman is doing. If Bregman and Altuv both walk....fine. They will have to pitch González, Gurriel, Correa.
Key is Altuve’s approach
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I think his knee is the issue, probably nothing major wrong but it's clearly hobbling him and I don't know that he's able to really dig in at the plate like he wants to, leading to timing issues at the plate and maybe trying to compensate by jumping pitches.

Nimo · Oct 16, 2018

I call a win tonight. Keuchel surprises everybody and goes 6 strong innings with 1 ER or less.

CinematicFusion · Oct 16, 2018

DieHard Rocket said: ↑

I think his knee is the issue, probably nothing major wrong but it's clearly hobbling him and I don't know that he's able to really dig in at the plate like he wants to, leading to timing issues at the plate and maybe trying to compensate by jumping pitches.
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Still, he is swinging at way to many high fastballs out of the zone. They are pitching to him like Bregman.

BruceAndre · Oct 16, 2018

CinematicFusion said: ↑

Altuve needs to settle down at the plate. He has been swinging at everything. ....
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He was doing that in the playoffs last year as well.

Nimo · Oct 16, 2018

I'm ready for more dingers

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/george-springers-postseason-home-runs/c-297706122

whiskeyred · Oct 16, 2018

I’m thirsty for a beat down

eric.81 · Oct 16, 2018

I really want to see Keuchel come in and do one of his 2015 impressions tonight. Get that ball dancing on both sides of the plate and induce weak contact...

I think our bats will enjoy that high fastball and we'll shell the kid from Alvin.

Astros 9
RedSox 3

Rockets FTW · Oct 16, 2018

Don't know if this has been posted but....

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ejoining-boston-red-sox-tuesday-hospital-stay

Houstunna · Oct 16, 2018

CinematicFusion said: ↑

Still, he is swinging at way to many high fastballs out of the zone. They are pitching to him like Bregman.
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Yeah.. I think he's moreso just f***** up.

Still confident in him though.

Houstunna · Oct 16, 2018

Nimo said: ↑

I'm ready for more dingers

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/george-springers-postseason-home-runs/c-297706122
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11-game postseason hitting streak

Broke Berkman's franchise record in Game 2.

RasaqBoi · Oct 16, 2018

Must win game?

Houstunna · Oct 16, 2018

RasaqBoi said: ↑

Must win game?
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Not even close... but I'd rather win.

Rockets FTW · Oct 16, 2018

Houstunna said: ↑

Not even close... but I'd rather win.
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Yeah, every playoff game is a must win. You give a team like the Red Sox an inch of confidence and they could run away with it. Gotta bury them and I expect Club Astros to decimate the SOCKS

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