NYT Nate Silver Doubles Down: 75% Chance Obama Wins

Dude, he sent Clinton to MINNESOTA. Not Michigan, not Wisconsin. MINNESOTA!!!

 

Drop the hammer big boy.

http://jessemerkel.policymic.com/

 

A Rochester NY native, Jesse began writing professionally in January 2011 after receiving his Associate’s from Genesee Community College.

Jesse seems like a heavy hitter

 

Yes I know I live in Minnesota. Clinton spoke at the University of Minnesota Twin Cities campus and then in Duluth. In case you are not aware of MN geography the Twin Cities and Duluth are very close to Western WI. (Duluth borders Superior, WI). You also might not realize that Duluth is in the 8th district and there is a very tight race for that Congressional seat.

Sending Clinton to MN serves three purposes it helps with WI, it helps with tight Congressional race and lastly it helps with MN. Anyway if you are arguing that he sent Clinton to MN and not MI or WI because Obama is worried about MN by that logic that means that he is doing better in WI and MI so he doesn't have to worry about him. That means that he pretty much has the election sewed up since the Obama campaign can afford to send a heavy hitter to a state they pretty much have won.

 

LOL. D-e-n-i-a-l.

 

Now that is funny..

 

also.. while also working as the Rochester head of the nationally registered 2012 Draft Sarah Committee PAC

 

Up to 78.4% now. Seems to be going in the exact opposite direction jopatmc thought it would.

Why? Because this election pretty much hinges on Ohio.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>In our model, Romney has just a 3% chance of winning conditional upon losing Ohio; Obama has just an 8% chance.</p>&mdash; Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) <a href="https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/263821441538072576" data-datetime="2012-11-01T01:55:07+00:00">November 1, 2012</a></blockquote>

And because it looks more and more like Obama will win Ohio.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>7 polls released in Ohio in past 48 hours: Obama +2, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +5, Obama +5, Obama +5. <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23notthatcomplicated">#notthatcomplicated</a></p>&mdash; Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) <a href="https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/263765684725633024" data-datetime="2012-10-31T22:13:34+00:00">October 31, 2012</a></blockquote>

Considering the things he's said in this thread (and others), I think jopatmc may actually be Dick Morris.

 

You may be onto something. Reading Dick Morris' latest piece today I almost felt like I was reading an extended version of one of jopatmc's post.

 

It is now clear why you think Romney will get 300 votes in the Electoral College, win the popular vote, and Nate Silver will suddenly throw his entire model out the window and make the odds 50/50.

On a serious note, has your family physician ran diagnostic scans to rule out a brain tumor?

 

That is one flimsy predictor right there. And it's gonna bite Nate in the butt. Watch.

 

If Obama wins Ohio he will certainly win the election.

 

I guess Obama's side took the bait.

Mittens won't win Minnesota, so don't splooge your pants.

 

Mitt's going to lose Ohio and the Presidency. Then we can watch that soulless lying stand-for-nothing, stand-for-everything spray-tanned p.o.s. fad into oblivion.

 

Obama now 79% and above 300, jopat faints.

 

Looking like jo nailed another prediction.

 

He has a bet where he leaves the board if Mitt loses, correct?

 

Yeah, with zboy.

 

That's correct, but I cannot recall who bet against him. (thank you, BigBenito ^ )

I predict based on the consistency and logic he has shown so far that he will not be one to honor a bet. We can just all put him on ignore if Obama wins I guess.

The Dick Morris lines in this thread are killing me in a good way, FWIW. :grin:

 

Here's what my predictions were and are:

1. Nate would wind down his predictor to close to 50/50 or Romney over 50% by election day

or

2. He will be making excuses about the "anomaly" of the voter turnout for 2012 overwhelming the vast majority of what the polls showed.


and

3. Romney will win the election with somewhere between 290-320 electoral college votes. It won't be close.


At this point, Nate is going to have to eat a lot of crow. It's 5 days before election. He's got Obama favored and increasingly favored. However, he has subtly given himself an out.....by saying that both candidates chances of winning the white house mostly hinge on Ohio, giving Romney a 3% of winning if he loses Ohio and Obama only an 8% chance of winning if he loses Ohio.

What Nate is saying is his model mainly hinges on Ohio. So, if Romney wins the election and wins Ohio, then Nate can just say that his model showed if Romney won Ohio, he was 92% favored to win the election. Just a cop out.

I stand by what I said. GIGO-garbage in, garbage out. Somebody posted the Karl Rove article. That's accurate. Nate's model worked so well in 2008 because it was a solid democratic election, the dems were energized, and they came out in somewhat proportion to what the polls were assuming.

Most of the polls are making the same assumptions. They're wrong this time around. People should be reasonable and understand what is going on in this country. Even if you are a democrat, you should realize the steam is out of the Obama campaign. You should realize the degree of unhappiness with the economy during this election.

What the dems are doing this time is the same thing a lot of repubs did last election, ignored the dynamics of it, ignored the fact that there was the distinct possibility of a black man being elected president(the unique factor), a black man who was talking about fiscal responsibility and condemning the irresponsible spending of the past administration(crossing over and trumpeting what has historically been the message of the right), and they ignored the lack of buzz/energy/excitement among their own party for their candidate (McCain). Any sane, independent thinking person could see the Obama victory coming a mile away in 08. It's the same thing here. Any sane independent thinking person can see the Romney win coming a mile away.