NYT Nate Silver Doubles Down: 75% Chance Obama Wins

Jopatmc was right, Nate Silver's predictions were flawed. Too much in favor of Romney. *cough*

 

What if, next time, Silver forecasts the Republican candidate to be in the lead? Can you imagine anyone on the left turning against him?

 

Doubtful IMO. Unlike 20-30 years ago, Republicans have replaced Dems as the knee-jerk party that instinctively attacks the character of people that disagree with them.

After successfully predicting Dem fortunes in two consecutive presidential elections, Silver has earned serious cred from everybody. Maybe a few fringe lefties nobody cares about would grumble.

 

Pending Florida (which was only 50.3% chance for Obama anyway), someone check my math: Nate Silver was 50 for 50 this year.

 

http://isnatesilverawitch.com/

PROBABLY
As of Wednesday, November 7th, 2012, Nate Silver is probably a witch...


While we on the Is Nate Silver a Witch editorial board are strict rationalists, Mr Silver’s performance has been uncanny enough to raise small but significant doubts as to whether his methodology is entirely of this world. We are following the situation closely.

 

This

 

I disregarded every single poll referenced in every single mainstream media locale and only paid attention to Silver's predictions. I loved his modeling and explanations for things.

I chose math.

 

Morey knew better than to second guess Nate Silver. That was on twitter today. Like I said, nerds underdstand each other. :grin:

 

I've been checking the counties. Volusia is at 98%. It's pretty even there but Romney is leading by 0.5%. Lee County is 57-42 Romney with 90% reporting. Palm Beach only has 1% out. Miami-Dade is 62-37 Obama with 93% reporting.

I guess the hope for Romney overtaking Obama comes from Lee but it's not nearly as populous as Miami-Dade so I think it's pretty much over. Obama will win Florida.

And yes, Silver would be 50 for 50 (maybe that's what jopatmc meant when he said 50/50).

He looks to be very close on his Senate predictions too though it looks like maybe Montana and North Dakota are going to elect Democrats while he predicted Republican wins.

 

To be fair to Nate, the Senate is a lot harder to predict because I doubt there are as many polls, thus smaller sample sizes and higher margins of error. There's also a ton more candidates.

 

One nerd is $8500 lighter because he is an idiot. The other is about to pick up a check.

 

Science will always beat the Creationist bull**** of the trailer-park Republicans.

 

No it's not. It's exactly like all the other 50 or so presidential elections. Hype and hyperbole, sound and fury but the nation only ever changes incrementally. You and the other simpletons get invested in the myths and incendiary rhetoric and lose sight of reality.

We are already a socialized nation and that's a good thing for most people. We have to band together to hold back exploitation.

Social entropy always moves ahead .. people will always move toward more individual freedoms not less; more control of their own bodies and thoughts. Yes freedom is chaos, adapt or die off.

Science is our best route to truth. We need real data, peer review and testing to know anything, not myths and gut feelings.

We never go backwards, "bring America back to greatness", "restore our American values" are hollow ideals. The old days weren't that great for a lot of people in our nation and in nations we exploited. We need to be moving forward with a more egalitarian, humanitarian ethical ideal.

 

BUY HIS BOOK.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Signal-No...F8&qid=1352291701&sr=8-1&keywords=nate+silver

 

Popular vote

Obama 50.3%

Romney 48.1%

Nate's Prediction

Obama 50.8%

Romney 48.3%

 

Is that with or without Florida?

 

I'm thinking with.

 

oh really?

That's "reasonable discussion", if by "reasonable" you mean "utterly condescending and insulting." Prick. Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out.

Edit: punctuation.

 

One last time, with "feeling":

Dwight. Howard.