Bah, I'll say this right now, the Chinese mainlanders hate Japan a lot more than they worried about N. Korea. If Japan even hints of re-arming, the Chinese people would be willing to start a war with them first and "unify" with a very pro- Japan Taiwan along the process. Seriously, I can't explain to you how much the rape of Nanking is still in the minds of a good majority of Chinese, how the visitation of Japanese soldiers memorial by the prime minister is blown up on every news channel and conversation over there. A crazy NK and a rearmed Japan is probably what a lot of Chinese Hawks being wanting for a long time. A distraction that allows them to "dissolve" the current situation with Taiwan and an excuse to flex its millatry muscle to the world against some one that have wronged China severly 50 years ago and never apologized publicly
Yeah, we almost armed Turkey during the Cuban Missle Crisis era. Can you imagine what would happen now at this climate? Doesn't matter if they're a part of NATO. All you'd need is a high ranked fundamentalist and they'd be stolen quicker than you'd know it.
You mean the message of a simpleton. That's ok. Some people vigorously oppose the opposite, which is to intervene to stop proliferation. Damned if you, or if you don't, lol.
First off, Japan has the 3rd largest military budget in the world. China would have a lot harder time taking them out than you think. Armed aggression against Japan would bring most of the world in on Japan's side. Most reliable estimates put Japan's ability to arm with nukes at a matter of weeks, not months, so China would have to deal with a nuclear armed Japan. Anyway, as I said, US withdrawl from NEAsia would make China think twice about allowing NK to threaten SK or Japan. It would give them a MAJOR incentive to chill NK out.
It is my belief that we have seen the end of usage of nuclear weapons in the history of mankind. The best way to resolve NK issue is to let the issue resolve itself. Mr. Kim is trying to hijack the world with a toy gun, and it ain't happening.
Can the US afford possible unstability by withdrawing from that region? That's 2 of the largest economies in the world plus an Asian tiger right there. Politicians are risk averse. There's many unknowns with that one.
I don't think China will attack Japan unless is attacked first. China will not lose sleep because of nuclear NK and Japan. It's already surrounded by nuclear countries for 50 years. What's big deal to have 2 more. Actually, it's US that should be worried about a nuclear Japan. Who nuked Japan, after all? You think Japanese forgot that? You know what, once Japan had nukes and think it can stand on its own feet, the first thing they are going to do is to ask American troops leave Japan. Japanese is trying hard to gain the "normal country" status. The people in the world will not view Japan as a "normal country" as long as it's controlled militarilly by America and Japanese know that. Dr Q
Hmmm, i think if you poll PRC officials you'd find a hearty disagreement on that one, lol. Nope. Its been their aversion to rearming that has kept our troops there. You don't have ANY sense of Japanese sentiment. The best thing that could happen to us would be to withdraw and leave NEAsia to sort out its own mess. A conflaguration involving Japan, NK, and China would only be to our benefit.
Because the powers that be don't believe legitimizing proliferation is the correct policy to follow. Our presence in East Asia is the stopgap for Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese proliferation.
In all honesty, China would nuke them all before that happens. Especially Taiwan. While it may have gain international critics if it does that, China will use NK as a bargaining chip (as the country most capable to ring them in). They'll probably draw a line in the sand and say if the int'l communnity lets those three country try to proliferate, action will be taken. No way would China let the above two countries and Taiwan proliferate while trying to be the big brother of the neighborhood. There's too much bad blood to let that happen. I don't understand it, but it's there. Heck, even in the ENS lobby of UT, I see Chinese writings on the walls with Taiwan and Mainland people cursing at each other. Then every Chinese msg board you go to, it seems that there's always some sort of anti - japanese story listed as a sticky.
I hold the belief that the US is in it too far and if we pull out, there will be a sense of betrayal among those under our umbrella. Their respective hawks might relish it, but the populace will only have us to blame. In that repect, we will only be drawn to it in the subsequent confrontation, whether as failed mediators or in response from an unprovoked attack. The other side would probably claim that we're assisting our traditional allies, which might or might not be true. This has been historically patterned since the last two great wars. As a world power, isolation and impartiality of the US is out of the question. And with large instability and no standing world body to mediate differences, India and Pakistan would probably get into the regional mix. There are no previous world wars to gauge a war of that scale and magnitude in that region. It'd probably take that war to scare them senseless like the Europeans.
Yeah, but with the fact that people have nukes these days, I say we all gonna die pretty soon. I know I'm a pessimist, and it does suck since my life has just started and finally starting to become independant but what the heck. I'm just pissed because I honestly believe we'd have more resource to deal with this situation if we never went into Iraq or atleast not give tax cuts so that we can still have money to buy N. Korea off.
The following image says a lot about the infrastructure in North Korea. It is a satellite image taken at night and it shows the degree of visible light from things like street lamps or cooking fires, or any source of light. The image is not unique and has been reproduced at other times repeatedly. Furthermore, the economy suffers so heavily from the inefficiencies of Stalinist-type central planning that they've resorted to dealing drugs to richer countries for capital -- official boats containing government officials have been interdicted with large quantities of methamphetamines and heroin on 'diplomatic missions' heading towards other countries. The point is that social infrastructure in North Korea is about what it was it was during the period when the Peninsula was under the Nipponese yoke, circa 1920. The average population is horribly malnourished, and most likely unable to be effective military conscripts, making potential force numbers appear much greater than they appear. Similarly, the DPRK owns a large supply of armor, quite a few submarines and torpedo boats, and a reasonably large supply of surface-to-surface missiles. Most of the naval forces, however, are WWII Soviet era, or later Chinese copies of Soviet craft. Their armor and support vehicles are late 50's models as well. While they've publicly shown a couple of missile types that would be able to hit the US, they've never tested them or done anything other than parade them through the streets. Other than these two phantom missiles, the DPRK essentially has a supply of Scuds remarkably similar to that of Iraq, circa 1990. In fact, their military is in many ways the same sort of paper tiger, that Sadam's "fourth largest army in the world" turned out to be. If we went to war with them, they would be routed. As such, I really can't imagine that the nuclear weapons (if they actually do exist) are nothing more than a blackmail ploy to keep the US at bay. I would imagine that Kim-Jong-Il is thinking along the lines of Cuba circa 1960. If the US attacks, they will be able to use nuclear SCUDS hidden in the mountains north of Seoul. Even if they were really considering an offensive operation against Seoul, one would imagine that their extensive chemical weapons stockpiles would make any new gains less toxic. The solution here is the (admittedly unsavory) Cuba ploy, whereby the country is further isolated and perhaps even blockaded ala Russian transports to Cuba in '62. The big problem occurs if the already massive outflow of refugees from North Korea to China becomes too much and the Chinese feel compelled to intervene.
