This is the race where the special election was called after the republican candidate's campaign manager got caught doing election fraud. trump and his republican enablers see this race as a an early indicator of 2020. Trump, GOP fret loss in bellwether House special election https://www.politico.com/story/2019...0014e-f0fe-dd93-ad7f-f8ff7e290000&nlid=630318
I looked at this because it's energy-related. North Carolina had a pretty modest RPS standard, which is a requirement of how much of the electricity on the grid is from renewable sources. It has been on a glide-path to 12.5% by 2021. Almost half the states are already at that level, though it is admittedly easier when you have hydro resources. Contrast with California who wants to get to 100% by 2045 (and with a more stringent definition). There was a bill to reduce the standard to 6% which is part of a wider trend in conservative states, a level the state already surpasses. McCready and others lobbied against it and it didn't pass. The dollar figure can be widely disputed because there have been studies that put the cost of RPS all over the map, but it does certainly cost NC ratepayers something to decarbonize their generation. I wouldn't say the ad is lying, but it doesn't give all the relevant information, which is what you expect from attack ads.
the astros game is a blow out so this neck-and-neck contest is more interesting to watch. currently: Bishop (R) 50.3% McCready (D) 49.2% 67% of the vote counted
So this race was a referendum on President Trump, according to the "experts" in the Democrat left mass media.
sleight of hand by mojo This special election is part of the 2018 election, the referendum on Trump. Instead gaining 41 seats, the Dems pick up 40 seats
I think the only thing to learn from this special election is that we're basically still right where we were in 2018. The Dems haven't gained much ground with Trump voters in his core base of 38% or so which seems to be his basement. This isn't really a bad thing as it relates to 2020, but it is a warning shot about picking the right candidate & sustaining that 60 to 62% that don't approve of Trump. If the Dem candidate gets beat up too much to the point where ANY of that 60% of voters decide to stay home, vote third party, or think that Trump is the "lesser of two evils", Trump still absolutely can win via the electoral college. 60% of voters showing up to vote Dem whether its anti-Trump or pro Dem is enough of a giant groundswell to pull states like Michigan, and Penn back Dem & win more electoral college seats in general in other states. When its essentially good policy, stability, & normalcy vs Trump's BS, I think the Dems win in 2020 big time. If they have a badly beaten up Dem like Hillary who 5 to 10% of the Trump dissaprovers don't vote for, then Trump's electoral college edge could squeak out another 4 years. So Trump's pure base strategy actually isn't a terrible one. He and his advisers know his base pretty well, and know they are with him to the end. Get ready for the nastiest general election we've ever seen. They will do anything and say anything about the Dem nominee to beat them down to Trump's level. They know if its Trump vs. Good policy & stable leadership he loses pretty bad. Destroy the Dem, and that 5 to 10% of dissaprovers of Trump come home to Trump or stay home & don't vote.
I would be curious what is the turn out among the groups. Did the Dem lose the turn out game and why - not liberal enough? Too liberal? .... more data for 2020. As for trump, really don’t need more data. He is feeding red hot meat to his base and they will turn out big. The Dem has a bigger challenge of figuring out that right balance to maximize turn out. That’s the bottom line I think, unless you can get a candidate that can really appeal to the soft or even core trump base without royally pissing off your core base and losing the independent - i doubt you can but hey maybe someone like Yang could do it. Biden probably also stand a slim slim chance.
An off year, special election favors the Republicans. This is a solid Red district. The Dems won this district in 2018, if it were not for the cheating. With 2020 being a Presidential election and the Dems being super motivated, this district should be back in play in 2020.
While I agree with most of this you are leaving out the voters who took a chance on Trump or just disliked Hillary, IMO that's who took him over the finish line and not his base. You also have to figure in complacent voters of 2016 who thought no way Trump could win and stayed home, Democrats have more voter enthusiasm on there side just because of Trump. I think the majority of people who stay at home will be people who voted for Trump in 2016.
Actually I'm not. I emphasize that 5 to 10% of those 60% who disapprove as the key to swinging the election one way or another. To your last point, I think the Dem cannot rely on that entire 60% voting for the Dems in Nov of 20. The reason is the flood of cash that the Trump campaign has to completely destroy the Dem candidate, and those 5 to 10% of voters who would stay home because they disapprove of Trump are motivated to "come home" so to speak and vote for Trump because all they hear all day long is scandals about how Biden has a private email server, or how Warren is secretly linked to an underground society who kill babies or something. Basically it's going to be information warfare in 2020, and the the future of this country will be decided by low information voters. Kind of a sad state of affairs, but the Dems can win if they turn out in droves and if that 5 to 10% see the alternative to Trump as a smart choice like they did in 2018 by thinking that a check on the president was a smart choice. It'll be different in 2020 and much more challenging when that alternative to Trump has negative ads thrown in their faces 24 hours a day. I just don't think the Dems can really run away with it unless both things happen. Not just Dem turnout, and not just running as safe as possible to give that 10% of low information voters a choice of Trump chaos or stable business as usual (what they THINK Biden is at the moment).
Democrats trying to find a moral victory in a loss. You can say it may bode well for 2020, but that's one more R in the House and not a D.
This was a Republican stronghold, but the Republicans had to cheat to win it the first time. The cheating was blatant. Yet, this special election the Democrats couldn't make them pay for that cheating. This should serve as a lesson to not take anything for granted and to keep the foot on the gas. I don't think they necessarily took this special election for granted, but obviously whatever they did wasn't enough. The encouraging thing is that it was within their reach. So they just need to keep trying.