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Next season's minutes predictions and total wins prediction

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by AroundTheWorld, Sep 22, 2023.

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  1. AroundTheWorld

    AroundTheWorld Insufferable 98er
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    Inspired by @Clutch predicting on RocketsWatch that Alperen Sengun will play 28 minutes per game next season (fewer than last season: 28.9 minutes per game), here are my minutes predictions for 2023-24:

    PG: FVV (32), Amen (16)
    SG: Jalen (32), Amen (10), Brooks (6)
    SF: Brooks (24), Tari (16), Whitmore (8)
    PF: Jabari (30), Tari (16), Jeff Green (2)
    C: Sengun (32), Landale (10), Jabari (4), Boban (2)

    Everyone else: Spot minutes.

    Rationale: I think we realistically have a core 7, with Whitmore having the potential to make it a core 8. Everyone else is filler. SO GLAD THAT KPJ WILL HOPEFULLY BE GONE - addition by subtraction.

    I think Sengun, Tari, Jabari, FVV, Jalen, Brooks, but also Amen should see significant minutes. If Whitmore really impresses early on, maybe he can steal a few more minutes at the SG/SF positions, but I think he will need time.

    My total wins prediction will probably be seen as incredibly optimistic/delusional by most, but here we go:

    44-38

    Rationale:
    • Natural improvement of Sengun, Tari, Jalen, Bari = 2 more wins per player on average
    • Edited: Getting rid of cancer KPJ and replacing him with FVV = 8 more wins
    • Replacing wet blanket Silas with Alpha Ime = 4 more wins
    • Amen and Dillon Brooks over Nix and KPJ = 2 more wins (at least!)
    That's a total of 22 more wins than last season. And assuming that Ime gets it and lets Sengun cook!

    LET'S GO ROCKETS!
     
    #1 AroundTheWorld, Sep 22, 2023
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2023
    sinan28, rcketsfan1, BaselineFade and 9 others like this.
  2. buzz1701

    buzz1701 Contributing Member

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    Las Vegas has the win total at 31.5 wins
     
    #2 buzz1701, Sep 22, 2023
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  3. kubli9

    kubli9 Contributing Member
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    Only 28 mins?! @Clutch just casually dropped that nugget like:
    [​IMG]
     
    #3 kubli9, Sep 22, 2023
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  4. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    I think they will get a semi shooter off the pine.....so I am not too hot on secured minutes just yet.
     
    #4 daywalker02, Sep 22, 2023
  5. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Getting vets FVV and Dillon Brooks = 2 more wins each

    Advance metrics puts FVV closer to +10 wins.
     
    #5 CXbby, Sep 22, 2023
  6. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    It is all about angle because last year we were at 19 wins and we thought we would be under 20 W but then came a 3-4 Win streak at the end.
     
    #6 daywalker02, Sep 22, 2023
  7. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    2 teams win 50+
    5 teams win 40+
    6 teams win 30+
    2 teams win 20.....
     
    #7 daywalker02, Sep 22, 2023
  8. AroundTheWorld

    AroundTheWorld Insufferable 98er
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    Yes, it's of course not mathematically exact, I meant at least 2 wins on average between the two of them, and if you add the 4 I put in by replacing KPJ with FVV, you are at 6-8 already from FVV.
     
    #8 AroundTheWorld, Sep 22, 2023
  9. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Fvv being underrated is still the biggest disconnect for all these low projections including from @Clutch and Roosh.

    https://theathletic.com/4590137/2023/06/08/nba-top-free-agents-kyrie-irving-james-harden/?amp=1

    Hollinger has his on court value at $47m, while that is overestimated due to high minutes, he is still a legit allstar caliber player.

    https://dunksandthrees.com/epm
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

    Estimated wins and Wins above replacement both have Fvv at +10 wins.

    Once you accept that Fvv is worth 10 wins, Brooks 2-3 wins, it only takes marginal improvement from the young guys and upgrade in coaching to get to 40 wins. It’s fine to err on the conservative side especially after the last three years but 32 wins is just not realistic outside of disaster scenarios.
     
    #9 CXbby, Sep 22, 2023
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  10. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Would like to see a degree in mathematics.

     
    #10 daywalker02, Sep 22, 2023
  11. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Player..............minutes
    Jalen Green......34 mins
    Jabari................33 mins
    FVv....................32 mins
    Sengun..............30 mins
    Dillon.................27 mins
    Tari....................22 mins
    Amen.................18 mins
    Whitmore...........16 mins
    Landale..............14 mins
    Holiday...............8 mins


    PG [1] FVv (32).....................Amen (16)
    SG [2] Jalen Green (34).......Whitmore (6) / Holiday (8)
    SF[3] Dillon B (27)................Jabari (9) / Whitmore (10) / Amen (2)
    PF[4] Jabari (20)...................Tari (22) / Jeff Green (6)
    C [5] Sengun (30).................Landale (14) / Jabari (4)
     
    #11 ApacheWarrior, Sep 22, 2023
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2023
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  12. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Regular/everyday rotation
    Fred VanVleet: 31mpg
    Jalen Green: 33mpg
    Dillon Brooks: 31mpg
    Jabari Smith: 30mpg
    Alperen Sengun: 30mpg

    Amen Thompson: 27mpg
    Tari Eason: 24mpg
    Jock Landale: 17mpg

    Situational/garbage time/filling for injuries
    Cam Whitmore: 14mpg
    Jae'Sean Tate: 14mpg
    Aaron Holiday: 12mpg
    Jeff Green: 12mpg
    Boban: 4mpg

    Win total
    33 wins (plus/minus 5 wins depending on injury luck and breakout seasons from young players)
     
    #12 OremLK, Sep 22, 2023
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  13. kubli9

    kubli9 Contributing Member
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    I don't know by how many more wins it will be, but my prediction is they'll win at least 32. I'd bet the over.
     
    #13 kubli9, Sep 22, 2023
  14. fattz

    fattz Member

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    PG: FVV (30), Amen (18)
    SG: Jalen (34), FVV /Brooks (split), Cam (6)
    SF: Brooks (32), Eason (10) Cam (6)
    PF: Jabari (26), Eason (22)
    C: Sengun (32), Landale (10), Jabari (6)

    9 man rotation
    FVV - 32+
    Green - 32
    Brooks - 32+
    Jabari - 32
    Sengun - 32
    Eason - 32
    Aman - 18
    Cam - 12
    Landale - 10
     
    #14 fattz, Sep 22, 2023
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  15. fattz

    fattz Member

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    PG: FVV (30), Amen (18)
    SG: Jalen (34), FVV /Brooks (split), Cam (10)
    SF: Brooks (32), Tate (16)
    PF: Jabari (26), Eason (22)
    C: Sengun (32), Landale (10), Jabari (6)

    10 man rotation
    FVV - 32+
    Green - 32
    Brooks - 32+
    Jabari - 32
    Sengun - 32
    Eason - 32
    Aman - 18
    Tate - 16
    Cam - 10
    Landale - 10
     
    #15 fattz, Sep 22, 2023
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  16. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    This is what I would likely myself. So I say good job!
     
    #16 peleincubus, Sep 22, 2023
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  17. jayfree

    jayfree Member

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    You think Tari is going to play 32 mpg and Jeff Green only 2? That's a bit of a leap but I can play this game.
    C Sengun (11), Landale (32), Jabari (4), Boban (1). I think Landale is our franchise player so he should play the most minutes at Center
     
    #17 jayfree, Sep 22, 2023
  18. AroundTheWorld

    AroundTheWorld Insufferable 98er
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    #18 AroundTheWorld, Sep 22, 2023
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  19. theDude

    theDude Contributing Member
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    I really think people are underestimating the difference tgat going from KPJ to FVV is going to have on this team. We won’t be world beaters, but I expect real improvement at every position. It might not lead to wins right away, but it will eventually.
     
    #19 theDude, Sep 22, 2023
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  20. AroundTheWorld

    AroundTheWorld Insufferable 98er
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    Yes, I should have combined it: Getting rid of KPJ and replacing him with FVV = close to 10 more wins.
     
    #20 AroundTheWorld, Sep 22, 2023
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