I have the %chances for the Rockets to get 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick. What I want to know is, can someone calculate the overall chance for us to get a top three pick? Also, can we calculate the total probability of getting bumped back to 10 by someone catapaulting over us to the top 3? ------------------
To get the overall chance of a top 3 pick, just add the individual chances of getting either the number 1, 2, or 3. ------------------
lol. I totally thought it would be more complex than that. Well, by my figures, that gives us a %6.48 chance of landing in the top three. That's better than I thought. Close to a one in fifteen chance. ------------------
Actually, you can't figure the overall chance of getting a top three pick. Whomever gets the 1st pick has their percentage for receiving the second and third pick removed from the pot. Same thing with the second pick for the third. If a team with higher picks than ours lands the 1st and 2nd picks, then our chances for getting the third goes down a little. If teams with lower picks than ours win lottery picks, then our chances go up a little. There obviously are a lot of possible combinations. ------------------
