Its been ages since Ive posted as things have been real hectic for the last few months or so. I wanted to get my 2 cents in on all this draft talk as things have been heating up, and I havent been able to put in a steady diet of takes like last year so here goes.... Yao Ming - I really like his all around offensive skills as he is able to score from many areas on the floor, pass the ball well and seems to handle remarkably well for a player that is 7-5. He also seems to have good timing on his shot blocking and appears to run the floor reasonably well. Ofcourse, I havent had the privilege of watching reams of tape on this guy so this is based on the clips from warriorsworld and his workout on ESPN. My major concern is that with his slender upper body, he wont really be able to establish low post position against NBA caliber big men. Also, I have a feeling the Rockets, if they draft him, will be real patient with him in this area as they are with Griffin meaning if he is to become a true interior player, it will take a good couple of years atleast. Also, if Ming is going to get pushed around by NBA level inside players, who is to say if he'll be effective in terms of boxing out for rebounds and bodying up defensively? It will require time and patience to allow Ming to develop his upper body strength along with the need for him to be here in the offseason for that. Its really difficult to gauge whether or not Ming will be able to bang with interior players in the NBA. Considering our frontcourt is filled more with skill and finesse players, this possible trait of Ming raises a red flag for me. I have no doubt that Ming and Griffin could be a nasty shot blocking duo, but what do you do in the playoffs when squaring off against the physical inside teams? Great shot blocking isnt going to stop quality big men from getting deep low post position and extremely high pct looks. Lamar Odom - The main trade offer that has been discussed which intrigues me is the Odom proposal. Trading Odom straight up for the #1 is lunacy ofcourse, but I would welcome the idea of acquiring 8 and 12 in the package. I honestly feel that at 8 and/or 12, this team can add the interior muscle that is so sorely needed. Chris Wilcox, Amare Stoudamire and Nene Hilario would probably be at the top of my list (I really feel Wilcox could be on the board at 8 btw). I really feel that if healthy, this team is not that far from getting into the thick of things in the West. I have to agree with the rampant criticism that Francis is not a true PG but just feel that trading him is crazy. In order for this offense to open up, a real good high post passer is needed. I would just love to see a 6-10 forward with excellent court vision and passing operating out of the high post. This would free up Francis and Mobley to make their moves away from the ball and get set up for solid mid range shots. Not to mention Odom's handling the ball on the break would be effective as well imo. The offensive efficiency of this team was down last year, but a few tweaks can bring it back to par. I understand that the high post passing is a plus point of getting Ming as well, but I am still very concerned about whether or not he can bang inside with NBA level players. Thus, I would rather have a forward like Odom who has excellent passing sense operating out of the high post and get a banger inside like the ones I listed that will do the dirty work for this team. Odom's off-court problems are a sense of concern as have been pointed out along with contract questions. I was intially very concerned about Odom's possible problems as I thought it could result in a year long suspension or even dismissal from the NBA. However, if he gets in trouble for pot again, its apparently only a 5 game suspension (didnt someone post this?) which is a risk I'd be willing to take. As far as Odom's contract issue, I'd be willing to let him play out this season and wait till next summer when he becomes a restricted FA. Aelliott had posted somewhere he would be unrestricted, but dont FAs become restricted after their 4th yr? In this way, the Rockets would be able to view him over an entire season and match any offers on the market. Also, the 8 and 12 picks along with anything else they get (Maggete?) would serve as a hedge so atleast you come out with something. Worst case scenarios in both cases, Ming busts and Odom has too many issues to re-sign. In the Odom case, the Rockets could still come out with two quality inside players at 8 and 12 whereas the Ming situation, they really would have nothing to show for it. Thats it for now, I really hope no one takes my support for getting Odom the wrong way; I have nothing against Ming its just that I think this team is in a position where they can add some nice talent and start winning now.
MManal, thank you, thank you, thank you. Finally some one is pointing out the very real concern of Ming's low post defense.
Great post! He is small in the upper body, but the base is what determines how far you gets pushed under the basket. Look at Barkley as an example. I'm not comparing Ming to Chuck, but Chuck isn't karl malone in the upper body. What made him a great rebounder was his strong base (butt and thighs) and his anticipation for the rebound. He will have some problems, but look at gasol who's not the most physically gifted person, but he avg 9 rebs just like dirk, but then you look at guys like rasheed who jumps out the gym and gets 7, that makes no sense. I really like Ming from what I've seen of him. He puts the ball on the floor which is a asset for someone like him. Gasol killed people going to the hole. I can see Ming spotting up for his ft line jumper, he pump fakes and goes to the rack. Stiffs like Jake,Ostertag, and some of the other guys will have a hard time dealing with him. On the other end, look how many centers (Cato) can play his way out a wet paper bag. I really hope we draft him and i know he can at least put up Griffin starter type numbers 12pts 8 rebs 2.5 blks. by him playing against stronger guys since he was 16, i see no reason why he can't get 14 or 15pts and 8 or 9 rebs. Griffin put up those number despite he was outsized and playing the most loaded position in the west.
Dam good post!!!!! And I will also say that New Jersey made a better business decision by taking those three picks , because it filled a need on that team.
I understand everyone's concern for upper body strength, but this is not as important as lower body strength. Remember, position is gained through footwork and leg strength. Ming weighs almost 300 pounds, and most of that is in his lower torso. So, with tree trunks planted in and around the paint and his willowy arms waving around the rim, he will IMO be very effective. Therefore, I wouldn't worry about him getting pushed out of the paint or away from the basket. Plus, he has the agility (according to reports) to dance (no pirouttes though) around defenders or to draw offensive charges. My concern is not with his play or his development. The ONLY reason I can see trading him is because we cannot come to an adequate agreement with the Peoples Republic of China. And if N.Y. or Chicago continues to talk with the Chinese causing us to trade the pick, the NBA should fine them severely for interference and compensate the Rockets.
Jerry36, jet lag and apathy (his government probably told him he was going to N.Y. so don't get too crazy -- how's that for conspiracy theory) had something to do with his unspectacular performance. However, would you rather have Chris Christoffersen? I'd be willing to wager he will be available at #15. And didn't Chris say that he was rather impressed by Ming? At any rate, the wild card is not Ming's ability or lack thereof. It is the mainland Chinese government.
I must have been posting when you were and you beat me to the punch (or post). I think you explained it better than I did.
I'd really like to think that just b/c Ming has strong legs, he wont get pushed off the block. However, that just isnt the case imo, I think it will help but is still a huge question mark. Charles Barkley had a much stronger upper body than Ming, I dont see how that comparison applies here. Eddie Griffin for instance has a strong lower body, take a look next time you go to a Rockets game, but yet he still isnt capable of banging inside with NBA players as of yet. Im not saying Ming will never be able to play inside, but this is a legitimete question. There is no guarantee that Ming will be able to spend substantial time in the offseason here to lift weights and remedy this issue not to mention it will likely take a good 3 yrs or so. Frankly, Im not ready to wait that long esp since its very possible the end product is a good but not elite center. Considering the make up of our frontline, I would much rather get a versatile SF and add a banger or two with the picks.
MManal: It's mostly desire and the ability to "read" the angle of a carom in order to be where the ball bounces. Dennis Rodman wasn't that big but he was always in the right place to get the rebound. Barkley wasn't that tall, but, as leebigez pointed out, he had a huge backside and thick legs, both of which were more important than his upper torso in getting rebounds. Ben Wallace in Detroit is yet another example. My point is that rebounding is as much desire as anything else. As a final example, I cite our very own point guard, 6-3 Steve Francis.
Thumbs, I am just not seeing how this Ben Wallace, Dennis Rodman, Charles Barkley comparison applies here. These guys are much bigger in the upper body than Ming is. Wallace is the leanest of them, but still he has very good upper body strength. In addition, the lower body strength is there along with very good technique and desire. They all play a role. As far as the defensive side of the ball goes.... Let me give an example, watch the Kings-Lakers series and take note how much more effective Shaq is when he receives the ball real low on block as opposed to being forced to receive it farther out. This is what Im referring to as my defensive question on Ming. Can Ming prevent the stud frontcourt guys in the NBA from receiving the ball real low and can he battle them and push them farther out. I have no doubt the shot blocking of Ming and Griffin will be fine, but Im talking about the in the trenches defense. We have such a limited sample size of Ming against NBA caliber competition, the Dream Team and that workout in Chicago. Neither one satisfied these questions Im raising. How can we then just assume everything will be ok and draft him #1 when instead we can trade to the Clips by getting a SF who has shown he can be very good in the NBA and add a couple of wide bodies that fill our frontcourt needs. Edit: Also, one other thing I forgot to mention, these other players you mentioned, esp Rodman and Wallace have a very quick pogo stick like jumping ability, something that I have seen in Ming. This plays a key role in rebounding also. Chris Wilcox and Amare Stoudamire definitely have this.
I've not posted in a while, but I read up on the posts on this site. I really got to say that the post that started this is one of the best on the issue of the Roxs taking Ming with the 1st pick. I feel that the Roxs need to use the pick to up grade the role players that come off the bench. If you are getting out played from the bench, the starters have to work that much harder. Some one made a statement about the Nets. Look what they did, this yr. They traded their pick last yr. to the Roxs and got role players, in which made a huge inpact on their season along with getting Kidd. Lets take a look at what the Roxs need; a 5 with an Defensive game, and to upgrade the role players. Looking at the current status we need to unload some big contracts, namely Rice, Cato, Norris, Moe. Out of the 4, who can we live with ? Personally, I think we can do without Moe and Rice. You can trade to get a 5 and pick a 3. Trade the 1st pick and Rice , Moe for Odom, and Candi man, and the 8 th pick. Use the 8th and the 15th to move up to get Butler. Every one wants to trade KT, but I feel we could use his talent on the second team, and with Griffin coming along, there is no need for Moe. Whatever the Roxs do is OK, as long as their are no more Langhi, and Collier being pick up.
Well, yes, Shaq will knock him around for the first two years. The NBA allows Shaq to do that to all players -- Shaq is immune to the charging foul. However, it's difficult to explain the physics of it but Ming will IMO be very effective in keeping people out of the paint. If Ming leans on an offensive player using his lower torso while he uses his reach to harass the ball, the opposing player will be forced to pass the ball back out. Ming then can turn and be in position for the defensive rebound. As you can tell, I am not a coach and cannot explain it as well as leebigez. I do know that we will need a solid backup because he will be in constant foul trouble his first year. However, all this is all just my own personal conjecture, he will turn out to be a warrior rather than a wuss in the paint.
<i>Aelliott had posted somewhere he would be unrestricted, but dont FAs become restricted after their 4th yr? In this way, the Rockets would be able to view him over an entire season and match any offers on the market.</i> MManal, Welcome back. Are you sure that I said he was going to be unrestricted? Go back and look again and I think what I said was simply that he'd be a free agent and we'd possibly be faced with the dilema of having to either overpay him or lose him for nothing. That is still a possibiity, that's why I don't like the option of evaluating him for a year. After next season, if we don't think he's worth a big contact, then we lose the primary asset we got for the #1 pick or we overpay him.
Aelliott, my bad, I mustve read your post real quickly and confused the restriction part. In any case, I still dont see how waiting out the year is a huge risk. Lets say Odom has a good season 18-8-6, something like his first two in the league. I think there's no doubt he'd be worth the max, and I would have no problem paying him that. If he has a less than par season, then we gauge how bad it was and what exactly happened. Also, in order for us to have to overpay him, some other team would have to be willing to do the same as we could just match the highest offer. In addition, lets say he's a complete bust, we still have two lottery picks plus a possible salary dump to show for it. What happens if Ming doesnt pan out for any number of reasons that have been hashed plenty times? We have nothing to show for it except a lottery pick heading to Memphis.
I'm looking at the playoffs, and if the Rockets could get somebody like Odom, and the 8th and 12th pick and load up on enforcers and solid slashers we can hang with these teams. With Odom, Griffin and Cato up front to compliment Francis and Mobley I can see the Rockets making the playoffs and giving somebody a scare. I want to make an impact NEXT YEAR and have a team that is at least good enough to secure and 8th seed. I think Odom, and the 8th, 12th, and 15th pick can do that for the Rockets!
MManal, I guess the worst scenario is that he has a mediocre year. Lots of teams are loading up on cap space for the Duncan/McDyess sweepstakes. Once those guys are off the board, then there's going to be several teams sitting there with lots of cap space. What we saw last time Duncan/Hill were free agents, is that those teams will then be willing to overpay just to get somebody. No matter what Odom does next year, somebody will give him big money solely on potential. I don't want to get caught having to overpay for him, but I also don't want to lose him for nothing. We don't need another Tim Thomas or Ron Mercer type contract on our books. As far as #8 and #12, those are good things, but if that's all that I've got to show for #1, then we didn't do well. Also, it's debatable that the Clips would actually give up Odom and both lottery picks.
aelliott, Theres risks involved in both ventures, whether you draft Ming or do this Odom deal. What if Ming doesnt pan out, isnt two lottery picks better than nothing? Also, the way I think things will work out on this Odom deal, is that the Clippers may require Kenny Thomas in order to throw in pick 12, but the Rockets would counter by making them take on Glen Rice's contract. Thus, even if you overpay for Odom which Im not sure will be the case then you have shred Rice's contract off the payroll. Think about this, if this were last summer, we wouldnt even be having this discussion. Lamar Odom came off two very solid seasons averaging roughly 17-8-5. The Clippers wouldnt have traded him last summer unless they received a king's ransom. We are in a position to acquire Odom when his value has dropped some and in addition get two lottery picks; thats just way too much talent to pass up. I dont think its that far a stretch to think that he will return to the form of his first two seasons. Not to mention, Odom is still just 22 yrs old and still has a lot of improving to do.
