Will be at the halftime of the 2:30 game on Sunday on NBC. Old School ------------------ Just Build It!
So plan on between 3:30 and 3:45.... ------------------ Rockets fans wanted at hoopsboards.com Draft Chat, NBA Chat, Team Chat, and more!
Thanks Old School.... better inform the masses for the chat. Should be fun .... Man can you imagine the suspense if they announce the 9th pick and it's not the Rockets? Or the horror if they announce the 11th and it is the Rockets? ------------------ NOTHING BUT .NET CLUTCHCITY.NET
I'll be in the chat also, the reactions in the room if the Rockets get the top pick will be a must see. ------------------ THE DEAN HAS WRITTEN
grummett- try out that lottery generator, if you haven't already. Over the weeks I've probably generated well over a hundered now, and paid close attention to see if the order of the top three ever went Clips-Bulls-Orlando (via GS). It never, ever, ever has. Not even once. In fact, in my experiment, I found that within dozens and dozens of tries the Clippers, Bulls and Magic were in the top three only once, and they still didn't follow the odds. I don't have a good enough command of math, but the probabitiy of the top three going #1 LAC, #2 CHI and #3ORL is very, very, very low. [This message has been edited by Nolen (edited May 18, 2000).]
Rockets have already won two coin flips. I expect the trend to continue. We pick 1st this year. No doubt. ------------------ humble, but hungry.
Nolen, I believe the statistical odds are that the order WON'T be according to who has the most balls. This is because the #1 does not have 50% of the balls. So, the odds are they WON'T be #1. and so on and so on down the line. The odds you are talking about is that the Clippers simply have the BEST chance. But the odds of any of the other 13 teams getting number 1 far surpass the clippers singular chances of getting #1. Did that make sense?
Heypee is right. The lottery odds aren't supposed to go by order of finish. That would defeat the point of even having a lottery. If the odds were weighted towards every team's record, we'd be watching everyone trying to tank for the first spot in the draft again. Consider these examples based upon the probabilities of the 1999 draft: The odds that the team with the worst record will get the first pick is only 25%. They have a 75% chance that they won't get that pick. The odds of the team with the second worst record getting the first pick is actually greater than the chance they'll get the second pick. In terms of top-3 picks, in the 1999 draft, the team with the worst record, Vancouver, had a 64% chance of getting one of the first 3 picks and a 100% chance of landing a top-4 pick. The team with the 2nd worst record only had a 56% chance (almost a 50% chance that they wouldn't get a top-3 pick. Nolen, To answer your question, based upon the last draft's probabilities, the probability that the top 3 teams would actually go 1-2-3 is 59.61%. ------------------ ?
'partner- uh, I know. That was my point. I guess I didn't express it well. Dr.- again, I don't have the command of math to figure it out, but there is no way that there is a near %60 chance of the top three teams going 1-2-3. Go try the generator yourself ten or twenty times, see who's in the top three. I would bet money that there is less than a %10 chance that the top three are even in the top three. The probability of them going 1-2-3 would be far, far less. ------------------
Oh geez... man, I must've been on crack for a moment there. LOL. Man, I really need to sleep more before posting messages or attempting math. BTW, it took me 6 tries to get the 1-2-3 finish, but you're right... that'll be a very rare probability. I'm guessing the probability that the 3 worst teams making the top 3 positions (in no specific order) should be around 18-20% or 1 in every 5 attempts of the generator. As for the probability of them appearing in exact order of record, I doubt it'd be too much above 1%. Somebody with better statistical knowledge may know. (Something about independent probabilities can be multiplied, but I'm not sure each of the teams probability of finish can be considered independent). Hmm... now lemme go back and edit that pevious post to save face. ------------------ ?
Nolen...hehe. I was just poking fun at you, imagining you doing statistical analysis by playing that game "well over a hundred" times. I've actually only played ONCE. Can you guess why?! Hey, if anyone can point me to that site that lists the number of balls per team, I can show the odds if you really are interested.
Anyone now where I can find a history of all Rocket Lottery positions before and after the selection? And the years? ------------------ In the end there will be no judges...only witnesses to my greatness.
