for all the talk of the cap eventually sky rocketing around the time they were negotiating the new (current) CBA the NFL sure is taking their sweet time in bumping up the cap number. this wouldn't be as much of an issue if the cap jumped $20MM during the life of JJ's contract, but they are moving at rate of under 3%. I thought there some exorbant 20% increase in league profit last year.
How much "dead weight" though would be needed to make room for 23+ million? How much of Andre's, Brians, Arians is none guaranteed though? We're not even bringing into the picture our number 1 pick this year as well. It will be cap suicide while being stuck in NFL purgatory. I know he's a likeable guy and all, but 23+ million per? How much of that would be guaranteed and non-guaranteed? No way. I love JJ and all, but I will not want to completely chain down the franchise for one player. It's just not worth it in my eyes.
They won't be. There's a good chance Andre, Cushing, and Arian are either all gone or all with serious pay-cuts by the time Watt inks his new contract. Hell, this year alone there will be enough significant dead weight gone to add some potential free agents in the off-season. Lastly, there is no NFL purgatory.... mainly thanks to non-guaranteed contracts, and the ability to cut productive players (and replace them with likely cheaper but equally productive players)... while keeping the truly special ones to build around.
These may all be theoretical numbers, but ultimately a player is worth what teams are willing to pay him. And I doubt any team can afford to put that kind of money into a single defensive player. Defensive linemen can be at least partially neutralized by a double team, as we've seen this year, so they are only valuable if you have other talent surrounding them - and that contract pretty much would eliminate the ability to surround him with much talent on the line.
Did the Texans get bought by Jerry Jones, because that's the type of contract he'd offer. That there is a bigger payday than Rodgers gets....
Seems most skipped this paragraph... Please Keep in Mind... As we begin our assessment of a potential extesion for J.J. Watt it is important to keep in mind that are results are based purely on mathematical equations. Our expectations in terms of these forecasts are to compare a player to his like-colleagues in terms of the money they make, and their statistical production. Because Watt is producing statistically at such a high level, we expect a VERY large number to come forward at the bottom of this projection. While it may seem outrageous to assume the Texans or any team might actually make an offer this high - we're simply determining the true value of Watt at this moment in time - as outrageous as it may result in.
Cant blame him for wanting 100m+. The guy deserves it. Im curious to see what type of contract Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman get as well,
NFL contracts are worthless to look at as a whole. The Texans IMO should do one of several things. 1. Hugely backload the contract, so that it comes out to maybe $15mil cap hit for the first 3 years or so. This is in case the Texans are trying to compete for a SB in 2 years. They'll have to keep restructuring Watt's deal over time similar to Andre's deals. But good if we want to contend. 2. Hugely frontload the contact, so that it's a decreasing contract where year 1 and 2 may have ridiculous numbers, but allow the team to compete from year 3 on. This is unlikely unless we suck and have gazillion cap room and no good FA to spend on. 3. GUARANTEE his contract. Literally just guarantee it for maybe 4 years or so. Lots of guaranteed base salaries and big signing bonus. This type of deal require the least overall money. But knowing the Texans, Rick Smith will give Watt a contract similar to the one in the OP. A cookie cutter contract with decent amount of guaranteed money and decent base salary. One that sort of make Watt cut-able if things go wrong but not really. One that doesn't truly open up the cap in any meaningful way for any of the years he's here. Just one that doesn't hurt the Texans too much in any year, but doesn't help them either. That is what a Rick Smith contract is all about, unfortunately.
I just can't see Watt demanding some catastrophic contract that he knows will destroy the Texans chances to be competitive just so he can say he's the highest paid player in the league. I guess we will see.
Obviously its going to be at least 100M.. But I peg it between 110-115.. I usually get these right guys.
Watt is a smart guy, he knows what it takes to win a championship. He is paid well throw endorsements and knows that he will get his contract in due time. If he keeps this up he will be sporting a gold jacket anyway.
All you guys thinking Watt will take less because "he is not like Mario" and "doesn't want to hurt the team" are hilarious. Ya'll think football players are altruistic? They don't do this for charity for crying out loud. He will take the most $$$$$$ he can get and I don't blame him, whether he stays here or not, as would any of ya'll.
If he wants the trophy, he'd be telling Indy to clear some cap room so when he becomes a FA, he'll sign there. Why in the world would Watt stay in Houston if he wants to win? Our winning pedigree? Our incredible roster? Our franchise QB? Our genius HC with a history of championships? What? If Watt wants to win, he would quit on the Texans and force a trade to a team that gives him a great shot at winning.
If you were Watt, and believe winning a SB in your career is the most important thing in your life, would you choose to believe in Andrew Luck or the Texans front office? Thankfully, I believe Watt like 99% of all normal human beings care about money much more than championships. Otherwise, no chance he stays.
Im not a big Luck fan and dont view him as some once in a generation qb like others do. I think the Texans will put a good product on the field next season and Watt will stay. Plus if he rejects the offer they always have that wondeful franchise tag.
