What Bloomberg Economics Says ... “The details showed demand made only a limited pickup. And even that was mostly driven by external demand. Domestic demand still appears to be struggling despite a range of stimulus measures having been rolled out
an observations by an Aussie economics columnist. https://www.afr.com/world/asia/why-the-peak-china-story-is-overdone-20240201-p5f1ji China’s overbuilt property market, worth about a quarter of the economy, was unsustainable. The Chinese leadership has long understood this, but held off until 2020 to burst the bubble, when they ordered banks to cut lending to developers to guide the sector onto a sustainable path. What was meant to be a kind of controlled demolition has turned into something else, a slow-rolling series of disruptive bankruptcies of some of the biggest developers in the world. The decision of a Hong Kong court this week to liquidate Evergrande, the country’s largest developer with debts of US$300 billion ($455 billion), symbolizes the size of the hole the industry was allowed to dig itself into. The liquidation will have minimal practical effect – Hong Kong creditors will have little, if any, access to Evergrande’s mainland assets, which have largely been frozen, seized or sold off already. But the property downturn will weigh on the public, who have watched the value of their homes fall or, in some cases, have lost deposits on unbuilt apartments altogether. As a result, anxious consumers are saving rather than spending. This matters, as the PRC has a far higher rate of home ownership than the West, in part because there are so few other assets to invest in. The capital account is closed, so they can’t easily invest offshore, and the local sharemarket, never a reliable investment, is in a deep slump. My 2 cents, The PRC is not nimble enough to dig itself out of its beconomic hole quickly, like the US economy has done the 2008/2009 financial crisis the 2020-2021 Pandemic the Chinese economy is slowing / plateauing, not collapsing
www.ft.com /content/d6b2e4d6-2f84-4ef9-bf99-10d76d92d045 Chinese companies revive Mao Zedong-era militias
My guess is these company militias have less to do with Mao and more to do with Pinkerton. These militias are likely going to be used to enforce social order and break up strikes and other economic disruptions as the PRC economy stalls.
I also fear that it will only be a matter of time before PrC sympathetic companies in Hong Kong set up their own militias. During the unrest in 2019 there were pro PRC gangs that harassed anti PRC people. A lot of rumor was that the PRC and police were encouraging them and aiding them.
Xi Jinping’s hunger for power is hurting China’s economy A new economic plan won’t end deflation, even as he sidelines his prime minister
I doubt the CCP would take the Economist's nice suggestions but even those suggestions such as increased liberalization of the private sector wouldn't go as far as real estate/banking debt resolution and restructuring, ending incentives for regional "warlord" corruption, and truly freeing the consumer class of purchasing restrictions that lead to the mutli-decade real estate bubble (that survived their rigged decade-long stock bubble). If one could dream, I guess. As for their suppressed population crisis, maybe if they didn't treat their plebs and proles like leeks, there'd be more incentive to work harder and have more children...
In February 2024 the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry came in at 49.1 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from Jan. In Mar 2024, The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 from 49.1 a month earlier and export orders also picked up This is the composite PMI its highest since April 2023
on April 10, 2024 Fitch, a credit rating firm, cuts China's ratings outlook on growth risks fwiw, in Aug 2023, Fitch had downgraded the US credit rating. since that down grade, US's GDP continues to grow job creatin continues unemployment reamains at historic low running avg of 6-month core CPI continues to dip, to below 4%
