Not to sound alarmist, but I keep reading doom and gloom stories about the Chinese economy that keep reiterating the same themes: there is not enough young people (potentially over counted by 100 million) to continue to grow and that the real estate market there is toast. We started 2020 with global shortages because of China shutting down for COViD. I don’t want to think what will happen to the global economy if the Chinese economy flatlines like Japan’s did in the 1990s. Real Estate Crisis Triggers New Alarms Over China’s Shadow Banks https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/22/business/china-economy-trusts-zhongrong-zhongzhi.html
Real estate generally takes a while to unwind. Despite the announcer's weird delivery, the YT channel China Insights is a hoot if you enjoy a buffet of schadenfreude. Earlier this year, the pumpers at CNBC were claiming China ending the shutdown would be tailwinds for the stock market. I guess it didn't need the Chinese economy's help for pumping the market.
I heard they built a bunch of cities with No residents @ROXRAN @rocketsjudoka need to talk to China about immigration issues Let’s make a deal
The PRC real estate market has been long overdue for a collapse. This is something people were talking about 10 years ago. The feeling was that the government was artificially propping it up but that can only work for so long. The PRC economy might not implode but it has some major structural problems. Being simply the factory of the World wasn’t always long term sustainable while in the meantime the Chinese stock market is highly volatile with little regulation. Wealthy Chinese pumped a Lot of money into real estate and Chinese cities overbuilt. Also the PRC hasn’t been able to build a vibrant consumer society that can domestically keep their economy going. And of course the demographics problems they’ve got along with a culture getting more authoritarian.
Rice and Hoover is not for everyone....First half Russia focused, second half China Spoiler US focused with Q&A
They'll just bail out the companies that need money, same as everyone else does. In general, China's economy and quality of life is going to continue to make shocking progress at an inconsistently slowing pace until it is the most advanced country in human history. I don't even like China, just being realistic that their perceived government immorality won't slow their progress. In fact, one of the few upsides of a strict dictatorship is that it speeds up decision making which can be used to supercharge development. There's nothing wrong with China, it's just going through the natural cycle of a country that went through a rapid expansion. There's some ebbs and flows involved and some corrections required. These are your friends, their economy would die without you and your economy would die without them. If they're in trouble, your government will be the first to help them because they would be affected most - and vice versa since they hold so many US assets. Stop believing the soap opera they're selling you about them being enemies, these two governments have colluded to swindle you out of tons of jobs and tax revenue for 20+ years now while their state channels put on a theater about how they hate each other. America - more than any country on the planet - intentionally and strategically made China rich, go do some reading. The US would NOT support a democratic revolution in China and it would barely slap them on the wrist if they brutally beat down a protest because that means more expensive iPhones because FREE people don't work cheap. China builds all the transportation infrastructure for the US to ship out resources from countries in Africa, Asia and South America (ports, rail, roads, airports, etc). The communist party invests heavily in wall street and so do a huge majority of the individual members of the CCP. America has a wide open-door policy to Chinese immigration during this time they've been "enemies" and Chinese Americans are the most well protected/respected new immigrants in American history. Imagine if Iran had the hold on your economy that China does lol. US foreign policy ACTIONS towards China show a friendship between the deep states of the countries. The US would not create this concentration risk without believing the other party intends to keep things stable. You forget sometimes that the head of the CCP - while he may not say it in public - may be perfectly happy to keep stealing money while remaining in 2nd place in the world. They will not start a war that is as likely to demolish them as it is to see them going up 1 spot in the rankings. Would you take that coin flip? They can just outlive you without throwing a punch. Unfortunately they've convinced lots of people in both countries to blindly hate each other, but you don't have to. They're your partners, overall they're doing well, the trade between the countries has been legendary and that's good for you. That's your best teammate right there. They would have your back if you needed to fight to keep this world order in place. They are extremely happy in 2nd place after toiling in ~100th place for a century. That's great progress and no country helped them get there more than the US.
even in China, it can lead to social unrest. tiananmen square protest the umbrella revolution in China's most visible Special Admin Region (SAR), HK street protests of COVID lockdown policies Despite the deep economic inter-dependency, competent leadership has taken action to lessen dependence on China Bidenomics have implemented policies to re-energize the mfg base in America, eg the Chip Act, etc. Apple has diverted some of its mfg from China to Vietnam and India in this scenario, the one w the much more productive/efficient workforce (Vietnam) will come out way ahead
back in 2000, there was this best seller on the NY Times , in which the anointed PRC expert cited excessive debt, shadow banking and ghost cities as the culprits. since then, while China's debt has increased ~~~200%, its GDP has increased ~~ 700%. Shadow banking, aka underground banking, has continued to increase, from ~25% of the nation's total outstanding debt, to the current ~ 40%
the generally accpeted PRC expert Gordon Chang has forgotten more about the PRC and its economy than i am ever gonna know. even he can't predict what is gonna happen w the Chinese economy. i am saying that i don't know; as there are way too many variables to keep up
FWIW, the Chinese word for crisis is composed of two characters, 危 机. 危 means danger 机 translates to opportunity
People in this country think Chinese are brain washed, I know for sure people in China as a whole knows much more about western world than people in the west knows about China.
