Iran thought to have shot down Ukrainian 737 by mistake

"The war pattern" is a silly thing to bring up when the West is going out of their way to say it was an accident, but you do you.

 

Maybe noted warmonger Justin Trudeau will accidentally declare war on Iran.

 

Yeah you're right there's no war pattern, and I won't be bumping this thread in the near future.

 

The US under Trump are engaged in escalation (or at least were) with Iran no doubt, but this isn't a part of it. Again, the US and Canada are trying to make it very clear they don't think Iran did this on purpose.

Your "Americans bad! Muslim countries good!" stuff is so annoying.

 

No one has a problem with Americans, and the Iranian government is a piece of ****. I’m not Muslim why the hell would I defend anyone on the basis of Islam genius?

Just wait, I’ll bump it, and you’ll say it doesn’t mean anything.

 

Calling me names doesn't change the fact that you are picking one person out of 60 million people to represent all 60 million people because it suits your twisted need.

 

He never said there's "no pattern." There's clearly several patterns, and one of the patterns is your "woe as me being the only one around here to figure everything out while the American sheeple are all led by the nose." One of the most tired routines on the internet and already a cliché from the naughts.

 

Fairly calm article about what is known from BBC. Includes interesting bits of history at the end. I for one didn't recall that we shot down a civilian Iranian airliner in 1988.

well crap. I can't get the link to work. It just keeps posting video instead of the actual article. Will cut and paste.
----------------
Western countries say they have evidence that an Iranian missile shot down a Ukrainian plane close to Tehran airport on Wednesday.

Iran has denied any involvement, and say the plane was not hit by a missile.

So what's the evidence that an Iranian missile was to blame?

What is the video evidence?
Video footage shared on Iranian social media accounts appears to show the moment of impact on Ukrainian International Airlines flight PS752.

The images show a flash followed by a loud bang. The plane then continues to fly, turning back in the direction of Tehran airport, then crashing into the ground in a ball of flame.

BBC Monitoring has indentified the location from where the video was shot to Parand, a residential area west of Tehran.

It's about 30km (18miles) from Imam Khomeini International Airport, where the aircraft began its journey.

Rows of housing blocks, a construction site and a storage tank, which all appear in the video, match a Google Earth image of the location, according to BBC Monitoring.

Are there clues in the photos?
There are now many photos of the plane wreckage available on media sites.

These photos, and the subsequent detailed examination of the wreckage itself, will hold vital clues such as burn marks indicating a fire, explosive residue which could point to a bomb on board or possible shrapnel damage from a missile.

An anti-aircraft missile is generally designed to detonate at a distance from the target, sending shrapnel towards it, inflicting maximum damage.

Puncture holes pointing inwards could indicate an explosion or damage from outside the aircraft.

And detailed analysis of the size and shape of any holes could give an indication of the type of missile used.

At this stage, it's difficult to verify many of the images which are being shared which - it's claimed - show damage consistent with a missile attack.

Some show the nose of a missile from the Russian-made Tor missile system.

These photos have not been independently verified yet and we don't know where or when they were taken, because there are no identifiable landmarks.

US intelligence sources say two missiles were fired, according to US media.

Image Copyright @EliotHiggins@ELIOTHIGGINS
Report
Questions have been raised about why the nose of the missile in these photos appears to be intact.

However, an expert we've spoken to explains that it's not surprising to see the nose - which contains its guidance system and does not itself impact the target - intact and at a distance from the crash site.

There are reports from inside Iran that the crash site has already been bulldozed and the wreckage cleared away. Elizabeth Palmer of CBS news reported that "virtually all pieces" of the plane had been removed by Thursday.

This makes the digital evidence gathered so far a vital element in determining what actually happened to the aircraft.

What about other evidence?
There are two so-called "black boxes".

The flight data recorder captures everything going on with the plane's systems. This will be crucial in revealing if there were any internal malfunctions.

The voice recorder is designed to contain two hours of audio from the cockpit, and may hold vital clues, as it records what the flight crew were saying at the time.

Iranian officials say it could take up to two months to download data from the black boxes.

It takes a long time to investigate because there's a huge amount of data, says aviation expert Julian Bray. However, he also says that skilled analysts may be able to get an initial idea from the data within a couple of weeks.

There's a limit to what the black boxes can reveal if a bomb or missile destroys the aircraft. They could simply stop working, although the voice recorder might pick up a sound wave just beforehand.

Some investigations can last years. A probe into the crash of an Ethiopian plane off Beirut in 2010 took two years to complete, even though the black boxes were sent to France, which has some of the world's top investigators.

How could it have happened?
The Iranian military would have been on very high alert just hours after the launch of Iranian missiles at US targets in Iraq, in anticipation of possible retaliatory strikes by the US.

The area where the plane came down was not only close to the capital, Tehran, but also a military base of the Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

There are however multiple precautions that should have been in place to prevent a civilian airliner being targeted in error.

The radar system used by the missile operators is designed to pick up identifying signals from all civilian aircraft.

"Flight PS752 was transmitting a transponder code showing its civilian identity registration, position and altitude," says Justin Bronk, a Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, "and the missile radar operator should have been able to see that information."

If this does prove to be a missile strike on a passenger plane, it would not be unprecedented.

In 2014, a Russian-made missile hit a Malaysian civilian airliner over Ukraine, killing 298 people.

An Iranian aircraft was shot down in error in 1988 by a US navy warship, the USS Vincennes, killing 290 people.

In 1983, a Soviet fighter jet took down a Korean passenger plane after it strayed into Soviet airspace. All 269 people on board died.

 

The most likely scenario, to me, is Iran shot it down by accident, mistaking it for a US war plane which they were naturally anticipating in the wake of their attacks on US bases.

What is the alternate explanation for what happened that you consider to be more likely?

 

In a surprise move: Iran admitting their [deadly and inexcusable] mistake.

That’s more than we can say about Russia and the 300 people that are dead because of them in a similar incident 5 years ago.

 

It's not surprising at all. There is overwhelming evidence Iran shot it down. By admitting it, they now can shift part of the blame onto trump for escalating the situation. It's a win win situation for owning a tragic situation.

 

Iran state TV says Ukrainian jet was unintentionally shot down

https://www.cp24.com/world/iran-state-tv-says-ukrainian-jet-was-unintentionally-shot-down-1.4762967

 

Overwhelming evidence, you say? What like....pro-Russian rebels armed with Russian missiles and Russian money doing the exact same thing yet the bad actor in the situation getting away with any culpability?

Iran’s initial response was essentially: mechanical error and “no you can’t get access to the black box data”.

Your point only registers by virtue of luck.

 

You guys are sheep! This is all part of the war pattern! Millions of Iranians are going to die because...checks notes...IRAN is faking evidence against Iran!

 

Escalation of tensions lead to accidents of this type on BOTH side.

This is the risk of playing this game of chicken where both sides are more trying to save face - Trump and Iran both.

 

Mathloom about to double down and say the Iranian who launched the missiles was a CIA agent.

 

This would make sense, if not for the fact that America starts more wars than any other country on the planet. It's not a conspiracy. It's a pattern. If you're tired of it, put a stop to it.

The goal is to take your tax money and shovel it to the war industry. The method is fear. The way fear is instilled is to make you slightly anxious everywhere: home, abroad or in transit.

I am sick of the ignorance from people who the rest of the year act like they know the media lies to them. It is absurd that Iraq and the very real bullshit campaign didn't teach you this lesson. Those reports were official too. Those reports were murky too. Those reports came from the mouths of people who claimed not to prefer war too.

Just stop.