If you're in charge, do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

In Cole's defense, he probably can do this anywhere. He's reached his potential here. He's unlocked the knowledge we had to give and unlocked his potential. To think he could only do this in Houston is to think too much of ourselves. We did this together, but he can execute it somewhere else too. You take the knowledge with you. And quite honestly, at another stop, he at minimum gathers even more knowledge than he had here. And he should think that. He owes us nothing. Which is why we need to pay him for what he's worth. You want to remove all doubt, you offer more.

 

Yep, for an example of this playing out, see Charlie Morton in Tampa.

 

Tell me the exact maximum payroll Jim Crane will spend in each of the next 3 years and I will tell you if we should resign Cole.

 

About 5 million under the tax threshold.

 

Then they can't afford him and they have to cut payroll just to keep the arbitration guys around.

 

Trade grienke pay cole

 

The notion that they gave up prospects to get Greinke so they're not going to trade him now is foolish.

I've stated this twice on here before and I guess I'll go ahead and lay it out a 3rd time.

This isn't about a choice between Cole or Correa (as others have pointed out).

It is a choice however about Cole or Greinke. They just don't have the $ to keep all three of them (JV, Cole & Greinke) the next two years. Cole is one of the best pitchers in baseball (we all agree on this) and he's going to get PAID major $ in FA.

With Altuve, Bregman, Correa, JV, Pressly, Alvarez signed for the next two yrs (some further) and with Springer and Brantley signed through next yr you HAVE to strike while the opportunity is there. Elite pitching (and what I mean by this is World Series winning pitching is EXTREMELY hard to find).

Cole is in his prime and will be for the next 4-5 yrs.
Verlander and Cole have become extremely good friends from what I understand.
I can't speak for him but I think he'd like to stay here if possible but he wants to get paid.

Greinke is signed for the next two seasons.
The 'Stros are paying him roughly 20 mil each season. AZ is picking up the balance.
Take that 20 mil you're giving Greinke and put it in the package to Cole.
You trade Geinke for prospects and with him signed for the next two yrs at only 20 mil and AZ picking up the balance you could definitely get prospects or MLB players.

You take that 40 mil that was going to Greinke and you add an additional 170 mil (a total of 210 mil) and offer that to Cole (6 yrs/210 mil....35 mil per yr). In reality they would be reducing the payroll 40 mil by getting rid of Greinke for '20/'21. So in '20 they'd only be increasing the payroll 15 mil (of the 35 mil) for Cole and the same for '21. Reddick more than likely is gone after this season so there's Cole 35 mil right there for next season. The following season Brantley comes off the books so there's Cole's 35 mil for '21.

The only players you have signed after the '21 season are Altuve and Bregman (possibly Pressly in '22 with his vesting option).

I don't think it's up for debate that they would have a much better chance to win it all in '20 and '21 with JV & Cole than with JV & Greinke.

If Cole would be willing to do this, you get an agreement in place, and than you trade Greinke.

Correa is gone after '21.
Hopefully they can resign Springer as he's heartbeat of this team.

After '21 you move forward with:
Bregman
Altuve
Cole
Alvarez
Tucker
Pressly
*hopefully Springer
This is a great core to build around.

You have a chance to not just be a good team this yr and the next two but to be an historic team.

If I'm Luhnow this is what I'd be trying to do. Obviously it's up to Cole.

 

Plausible but unlikely they would sign Cole if it puts them in a position of having to trade Greinke to avoid severe luxury tax penalties.

 

As you spelled out, even if we trade Greinke for salary relief, we’d still have to increase our budget 15 mil in 2020 and 2021. We are ALREADY at the top of our budget, and that is with all of the FA off the books.

In order to make Greinke and Cole financial equals, we’d also have to find a taker for Reddick’s 13 million, AND find room to find 2 catchers and about 1-2 more FA’s.

Incredibly unlikely. In fact, I think it’s about 100% more likely Crane blows up the budget to keep both than offload Greinke and Reddick to try and make #s work.

To be honest, I was shocked we took on 20 mil a year in Greinke, due to the limitations it will spell for 2020 FA. Glad we have that problem, and I’m interested to see if Crane thinks passing the luxury tax threshold is wise in 2020. At most, I think we pass it in 2020 and work hard to get back under in 2021.

 

It likely isn't Cole vs Correa. It likely isn't Cole vs. Greinke.

If Astros don't sign Cole it is because he either wants to go so where else or Astros aren't willing to risk a long term contract of that magnitude for a pitcher and/or aren't willing to rob significantly from distant payrolls to pay for 2020 and 2021 payrolls.

Cole will likely be valued ~$50 million each of the next two seasons with significant drop off after that because teams don't trust pitchers long term. If Cole signs for $30 million AAV, the contract needs to be long enough for Cole to recoup this loss in the first two years. With the way Bregman, Alvarez, and Tucker have looked, I doubt Astros are willing to rob significantly from future budgets considering they've traded a lot of prospects already.

 

If I'm in charge I pay the man for 6 years tops. His talent is headed into his prime age as a power pitcher.

Find away to generate more revenue, lower the team salary with other players being moved as already very well pointed out. If he is willing to stay here you HAVE TO get it done. We'll see how he feels after celebrating more great victories with this team and city. Cali is beautiful and all but this organization is set for excellence for several years. If he likes the taste of playoff baseball and hopefully champagne celebrations with Verlander and crew when the Fall Classic is finished he just might say make me a real offer and I'll stay.

 

Don't need him... we have Urquidy.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/09/astros-rumors-jose-urquidy-rotation-playoffs-2020.html

 

Verlander
Greinke
McCullers
Urquidy
?

It's certainly not a bad top 4. Combined with our 2020 offense, and our pen, we will be in WS shape right out of Spring Training.

Cole will obviously be a significant loss, but not one we can't sustain.

 

Peacock has to be the 5th guy right now. But the market for starting pitching will be deeper than normal this year. There are over a dozen guys with #3 credentials who will likely have to settle for moderate 2-3 year deals:

Bailey
Bumgarner
Gibson
Gonzalez
Hamels
Hill
Keuchel
Miley
Odorizzi
Pineda
Porcello
Roark
Ryu
Wheeler
Wood

Plus Cole and Strasburg. And possibly Arrieta. And trade options.

 

Good point. I do think given our budget constraints that a SP will more than likely come through our FARM, and then an upgrade via a mid-season trade. We won't have room for SP FA adds.

 

The market is unpredictable. I could see any one of those guys taking a significant paycut to come to Houston. I could also see Houston picking from a lower tier (Anderson, Lyles, Nova, etc.) as they did with Morton and Miley. And of course any trade Luhnow makes for a pitcher should be viewed favorably by default.

 

Haha. Luhnow is brilliant, indeed.

 

How long into next season is Pineda's suspension? Dude was lights out mid August until his September suspension.

 

First 39 games

 

These records seem really meaningful