How many deaths are acceptable to save the Economy?

We didn't have 73K+ people die in less than 2 months in 2019. The scale of this isn't comparable to anything we've seen in a long time..

 

Unfortunately this decision has already been made for us. The dam of stay at home orders is pretty much shot through and with many states already relaxing or repealing standards and we see in all states people already defying social distance standards and not wearing masks containment is failing.

 

Yes they're inaccurate. They're probably on the low side. The scope of this disease is likely much larger than we think.

 

Do I believe that personally? No.

However I have already heard a number of people in private tell me “the virus is only killing the old and fat. The rest of us shouldn’t have to suffer.”

So to some extent a lot of people simply do not care enough.

 

It's obvious that a lot of people don't care. This is to me besides the disease itself is most disturbing thing about this situation. The amount of callousness that we see in our society. Callousness that is on display in this very thread.

I agree this situation is painful. There is a lot of economic harm. There is a lot of social harm. I feel it personally. I understand we have to find a way to get the economy functioning somehow at the same time I'm not just going to dismiss all those people dying or just excuses it as people die anyway.

If we're lucky all of us will be elderly. Some of us are already and some of us are close. Many Americans are obese, many are diabetic, have a history of heart disease, have asthma and many have more than one of those conditions. If we don't meet those conditions I'm sure all of us have family and friends who do. Are all of us just fine accepting that those people will die just so we can get back to work, go to the bar and to the gym?

 

good point ..
this sucks

 

No number is 100% accurate and with the chaos surrounding the virus, there were going to be inaccuracies. People that do not want to believe the virus is dangerous or have a political axe to grind claim the current numbers are inaccurate.

What we know is that the number of people that have died from COVID19 in the USA has been underreported (as well as the rest of the world). There is a very high likelihood already over 100,000 in the USA have died from it and the number will be higher as the states open up and people grow weary of social distancing.

I am not making a judgment about opening up society. We have to for a variety of reasons but we have to be smart about it and ideally we would have some cooperation and understanding on basis principles such as wearing a clean face mask in public, respectfully distancing ourselves in public and not taking unnecessary risks.

In Sweden they didn’t even have to issue an edict because their people are responsible and follow the recommendations of their government.

The USA on the other hand have idiots believing conspiracy theories, a President that lacks any clear consistency, states that are not in agreement, some people that believe we shouldn’t open up at all and ignorant fools that have no respect for science crying they will not take the vaccine for COVID19 when one is made available.

 

We're acting like available PPE and testing is a nonstarter when it's the keys to opening up the economy without feeling blindfolded.

One, because of the Executive's lackadaisical response.

Two, because some people don't like face masks as it makes them look weak or unConstitutional (sp).

So let's just ripoff that bandaid and breed some more fine warriors to send off and die in foreign lands!

 

I think you're missing my point. Perhaps I can explain better.

This is the OP:

The point I'm trying to get across is that hundreds of thousands of people die every year from infectious diseases in the United States. We could prevent a certain % of those deaths if we socially distanced full time and wore PPE. We, as a society, decide not to do that. So, we, as a collective, are saying a certain amount of deaths from infectious disease are acceptable to maintain our way of life.

So, when someone postulates that we will be killing X amount of people due to our choices regarding infectious disease. I think it's apt to point out that we already make that decision every year. We, by not socially distancing full time and wearing PPE full time have already said our convenience/economy/whatever is worth more then those lives. That death toll is apparently acceptable though.

Now, we are in a situation where the death toll is much higher but the question remains the same. How many are we willing to let die due to infectious disease for the sake of our convenience/economy/whatever? There is obviously a number of lives associated with that. That was true in 2019 and every before that too though. The numbers have changed but the question remains the same. I don't have an answer but I think that's important to point out.

 

Perhaps this nation can become that great again, who knows.

 

It’s crazy how the same people on my social media posting about “standing up to the unconstitutional stay at home orders” are the same people that were b****ing about a high school senior not following his school‘a hair policy just a few months ago.

 

It is very disappointing to really believe you live in a nation that has a high value for life and then have undeniable evidence to the contrary.

We can’t even get people to agree to wear a face mask.

 

What was that saying
1/3 of the people want to kill another 1/3 of the people and the last 1/3 don't care enough to try and stop them.

This country has been callous and unfeeling for a long time.
This just happens to be happening to more general group . .. maybe just a group that includes people some care about for the first time

People are feeling the fear that alot of people have always felt

Remember: Flint does not have clean water. . . .and there are still children in cages . .. . . .

Rocket River

 

I endeavor not to be sanctimonious or act morally superior to others. Obviously, I, and everyone else see a lot of that going on on the interwebs these days. I think modesty and humility are two of the very most important traits. I can always work on being better in all ways.I can't argue with the way you feel. I will try to be better.

Respectfully, even with knowing how to treat and fight these other things, we still see hundreds of thousand of people die in the United States every year of infectious diseases and I think it's indisputable less people would die every year if we practiced social distancing and all wore PPE. So, when I see the OP questioning the human cost, in what I construe as a sanctimonious way, I think it's apt to point out and would be remiss not to point out that we, as a society, have always said it's ok for a certain amount of people to die of infectious diseases who would not have if we had all always practiced social distancing, quarantined and always wore PPE. That number exists. How many die every year because people are selfish and don't get the flu vaccine? That number exists too. We just don't see it as important enough to alter our way of life.

I don't advocate opening everything up and everyone start rubbing on each other ASAP. I'm a reasonable, prudent and cautious person. With what I have experienced and the data we've seen regarding Harris County, 133 deaths, I don't know that the measures taken so far have been too imprudent. There is always a balance between lifestyle/economic activity and not spreading disease. Where is that balance? Obviously, it's hard to say but people have always died of infectious diseases because we have made compromises to have a certain way of life.

 

Good post and you seem like a nice guy but why is it so hard to accept that very large number of people have died due to this virus?

 

The federal gov't has had 4 months now to get supplies and testing in place.

Shutdown was meant to be for a short period to get a handle on the situation. We failed as a country there. Now deaths will go up and we will face the reality of this disease in a cold hard way.

 

Is it time to consider that maybe Trump wasn't a fluke?

He sure is "conning" us right now in his last year.

Maybe we caught a handful of bleach drinkers, but 1/3 of the nation didn't go Jim Jones and drank the koolaid with him.

 

I do accept that. I’ve never claimed otherwise.

 

Thanks for your reply. I made no argument about distancing and PPE reducing numbers of death by infectious disease, but I'm going to have to dispute the numbers and the spirit of that argument.

Here's an example data set from the CDC:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_06-508.pdf

On average in 2016 and 2017, for example, influenza and pneumonia were the two infectious diseases that killed the most people. Together, they averaged about 53,000 deaths in each of those years, and together, they were the only types of infectious disease to crack the top 10 causes of death, @ about 1.8% of all US deaths. So, I really don't think you can say "hundreds of thousands" of people die every year of infectious disease anymore in the US. I'm not including chronic lower respiratory, because people don't typically catch COPD and emphysema. I guess we could add septicemia, but that mainly happens in hospitals where people are trying to be fairly clean already, and is a complication of surgeries and that sort of thing.

In 2020, it looks like this outbreak will easily double or triple our normal total US deaths by infectious disease. I think that's a fair statement. We have no idea, sadly, where the COVID-19 totals will end up, and I've even posted some interesting evidence about an ongoing additional undercount of 20,000 already. (The main Hangout thread on the virus.)

I just want to again defend people's alarm about what's happening right now. The rate has pushed COVID-19 past flu & pneumonia both and together, and it even now on bad days tops cancer and heart disease for #1 killer on our soil. Since the only defense we know of is distancing and things like PPE, that's why people are embracing those. With flu, we have effective anti-virals. With pneumonia, we have antibiotics. We also have familiarity with those and know people who've had those and survived. Clearly, yes, people still die of those things, over 50k per year. But I'm talking about a rate and a psychology as well.

Anyway, please don't ignore my bottom line relating to this thread topic. We basically agree, and given realities on the ground and in our infrastructure, we have to start to (as prudently as possible) get going again. I'm working with my university even as we speak to figure out how we're going to offer classes and science labs in the fall, when we will still have the virus around and still have a ton of questions about it, with a mix of students and employees who want to meet and others who will not want to meet in person.

Cheers, and thanks again.

 

Ah, perhaps I overstated the deaths from infectious diseases. If it's hundreds of thousands (like I thought) or merely 10's of thousands.The specific number isn't really the point though. The point is we could save some amount of lives if we decided to socially distance full time/quarantine/wear PPE.

I based my supposition on less people dying if those practices were adopted full time on articles/quotes I read and what I thought was common sense.

“Probably social distancing is having an impact on other viruses besides coronavirus—it certainly should,” said Kathryn M. Edwards, MD, a professor of pediatrics in the Division of Infectious Diseases and the vice chair of clinical research at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, in Nashville, Tenn. Children, for example, typically pick up viruses by interacting with friends or clinics, she said. “One of the complexities [in determining the connection], however, is that influenza does tend to be a seasonal illness, and as spring comes, influenza goes.”

The actions people are taking to prevent the coronavirus, such as social distancing and handwashing, “are the very things that prevent any respiratory virus,” added Gregory Poland, MD, a professor of medicine and infectious diseases at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn. “I’m sure they have helped, but it’s impossible to quantify by how much.”

https://www.idse.net/Covid-19/Artic...ncing-a-Help-in-Slowing-the-Flu-Season-/57839


Reached by e-mail late Wednesday morning, Dr. Eric McDonald, medical director of the county’s epidemiology and immunization services branch, said he agreed that the flu numbers, taken together with the massive decrease in ICU numbers at Rady, are the strongest evidence yet that we’re all getting some serious bang for our social distancing buck.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.co...020-04-01/social-distancing-working-san-diego

I don't see how it makes any sense to assert social distancing/PPE usage isn't also reducing the transmittal of other things.

You wouldn't argue that practicing the practices we have the last six weeks wouldn't reduce death from infectious disease in a "normal" year would you? That doesn't make any sense to me.