[Houston Chronicle] Astros re-sign Brad Ausmus to one-year deal

good stuff, i think he's worth that much just to catch oswalt every season.

 

Phenomenal move by the Astros. There have been a lot of complaints, sure, but people just don't realize how valuable Ausmus is.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/quantifying-catcher-defense-and-other-stuff-like-that/

 

Thanks for the link!

quotes from that article

"In the 1999 Baseball Prospectus, Keith Woolner concluded that “if there is a true game-calling ability, it lies below the threshold of detection. There is no statistical evidence for a large game-calling ability, but that doesn’t preclude that a small ability exists that influences results on the field.”

"But if catchers have no measurable impact on ERA, why give them so much defensive credit when the impact of a good throwing arm and blocking pitches is relatively small?"

"when Chris Dial did a study into catchers’ effects on walks and strikeouts instead of the less granular ERA, he still found no discernable impact"

At the end of the article the author gives, what i find to be a compelling, logical theory on a catcher's calling ability to influence runs against. However, there was, and is as far as i understand, no quantifiable data that supports the argument. Maybe i'm wrong on this? Is his win shares argument it?

Furthermore even if we assume there is some measurable effect in influencing runs against we would have a hard time approximating how large it is. Moreover, there is no hard evidence that ausmus is above average in this area of the game. And at a time when the catcher of the world champions doesn't call his own pitches, i have a hard time believing its justified to spend millions on a backup catcher with this skill, when there are, assumably, bench coach with the same skill avaliable at a fraction of the price.

 

I respectfully disagree. Ausmus' deal is 2+ incentive. For simplicity sake lets just assume that's 2 million over the what the team would other paid for a backup from within the organization. 2 million a year is approximately the difference between the astros and mets offer for beltran. Or the astros' offer when they lost out on kile and randy johnson. It's close to the difference between the yankees and astros offer for pettitte last year. It should buy a mid-range middle reliever. Don't be fool, 2 million makes a big difference team with a budget.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=432

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catcher's_ERA

Ok, your turn.

 

Yes, but the Astros didn't offer $2MM less to Kile or Randy Johnson or Beltran because they couldn't afford it - they offered it because they didn't believe those players are worth those amounts. If Beltran was willing to sign for $2MM more and the Astros felt he was worth that amount, they would have signed him.

A $10MM contract makes a difference. A $2MM, 5-year contract makes a difference. A $2MM 1-year deal will not have any impact on the Astros' signings. The budget is simply not that inflexible for any team.

 

Maybe, but the heart of that argument goes to my point. My problem with signing isn't really paying a bad backup catcher 2 million a year, it's how, and why, the astros seem to be evaulating how much a given player is worth. It's the decision making process. That problem is compounded by being a team on a budget, though you and i disagree on how much if any it affects that.

2 Million is also over 3x what the team invested in the first 10 rounds of their last draft class. The one in which they didn't sign a pick until the 6th round because of money issues. If the team is so cash strapped that it can't go a few hundred thousand dollars over slot to sign any picks the first 5 rounds of the draft, then it is a major mistake to spend 2 + million on ausmus next year.

 

I like the signing. He's basically an extra coach on the bench. Hopefully he can teach Towles how to call a game. I'm not worried about the money. I doubt he plays enough to hit the , although I don't know what they are.

 

except that the Yankees gave andy a 2nd year with a player option at $14 million. that wasn't just a $2 million gap.

this is a fine move. it's depth at catcher and a veteran to help bring towles along.

 

Again - it's not that they COULDN'T afford the $2MM in the draft - they didn't believe those picks were worth those prices for whatever reason. A team with a $90MM budget is not going to be influenced by $2MM if they believe it makes a diffference in the quality of their team.

 

Well any evaluation system in which a 39 year old brad ausmus is worth 2+ million, yet also values it's draft picks in such a way that (taking into consideration the terrible farm system) the team refuses to sign a draft pick until the 6th round because of thousand dollar differences, is broken.

 

Just like the article said, you can't quantify it. That doesn't mean it doesn't exist. IIRC, Pettitte & Clemens raved about Ausmus. Oswalt loves him. I'm probably going to take their words with a much larger grain of salt than yours. I think Larry Dierker puts is best (you remember him, don't you?)...

 

Holy crap...talk about looking bitter. Geez, Larry.

I've never read that before.

 

I did think some of those shots at Garner and Jimah were pretty funny.

 

I think they'd be a lot funnier if they weren't from the guy who was fired and replaced by those guys. In that context he looks really bitter.

 

I didn't say Ausmus is worth $2MM - I am just saying that overpaying for Ausmus for a 1yr deal won't have any effect on the roster that the Astros assemble.

 

Wait, who is Larry Dierker isn't he's the guy that brought in mike jackson

Like i said, even if we accept there is some influential skill at the mlb level in game calling, there is no way to measure how big an effect exists overall and between players. Furthermore, there is no reliable evidence that Ausmus is above average let alone great in this regard. If this is true, then why should we assume that this skill is worth 2+ million dollars a year? Aren't there former cathers/ coaches that also have this skill? The world champion red sox have a catcher that didn't call his own pitches, why is it that the astros should pay million for a backup catcher to provide this mentoring skill? Can't coaches with the same skill provide it?

 

the world champion red sox also had a SS who can't hit a lick and is nowhere near the defensive player AE is. just sayin'.

 

yea we tried that with loretta this year. didn't work out so well