Looks like we are in for a much needed soaker. http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/08/something_wet_t_1.html Chron: Something wet this way comes... The tropical disturbance about 180 miles southeast of New Orleans has seen bursts of convection this morning, and surface pressures are falling. Although under the influence of some dry air, wind shear is low in the area and the bottom line is that a tropical depression seems more likely than not to form in a day or so. WHERE THIS WILL GO It's impossible to know for sure, of course, as we're dealing with an as-yet unformed system. But the computer models are fairly consistent in bringing something to the Texas coast between Corpus Christi and the Texas-Louisiana border by early Tuesday. During the next two days models forecast a large ridge of high pressure to expand eastward into the southeastern United States, which would allow for such a movement first to the west, and then to the west-northwest. A hurricane hunter will likely fly into the system this afternoon, and I also know the Texas Governor's Office of Emergency Management will begin their conference calls today to prepare for possible impacts from the system. Because any landall would come so soon there's little time to prepare, and if anything does form it probably won't do so until the last 24 hours or so before landfall. WHAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME It's important to stress that none of the computer models presently develop this system into anything more than strong tropical storm.
I kind of enjoy tropical storms, so long as they are not on the Allison level. Plus, we really need the rain.
Here we go. We have a new tropical depression and this one has us in its sights. The forecast discussion is interesting especially the part about the latest GFDL. This seems very much like Alicia. 000 WTNT45 KNHC 032033 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008 SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY HAS SHOWN THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EXPOSED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. RECENT REPORTS OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED ENOUGH FOR THE LOW TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 36 KT AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/5. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN THIS AREA...WITH THE GFS AND UKMET AIMING AT WESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AIMING AT TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN 36-48 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WHICH HAS GIVEN THE SYSTEM A RAGGED APPEARANCE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH 50-55 KT WINDS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST GFDL CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL... WHICH IS A SHARP CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
This one appears to have a more westward component than Alicia, which keeps it a little closer to land. Development should be interesting given the fact that it is suffering from wind shear and some dry air at the moment. I'd guess we could have a minimal cat 1 on Tuesday just south of Galveston Bay meaning we'll get a crapload of rain. We might get some wind, but I can't see this thing blowing up to a major storm in two days, so mainly lots of rain, which we need. Careful for the flooding and keep your eyes peeled for a twister if the rain gets nasty enough.
No one can predict the intensity of a Gulf of Mexico storm. These things have the ability to blowup at an incredible rate at times. Look at Humberto last year as an example. Edit: It does look to be in pretty sad shape at the present time.
the thing thats bothering me about this depression is its moving ~6mph. I hope this doesnt turn into a monster storm
I'm starting to worry. There is little doubt that we are at least going to see some bad weather from this. How much and how severe is the big question. We are smack in the middle of the cone and I don't see that cone moving much at all till landfall. And you are right this thing is a slow mover. It will dump some rain. Edit: Holy crap that was fast. We now have Edouard. 000 WTNT35 KNHC 032150 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008 500 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE FIFTH OF THE SEASON... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM CDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 420 MILES...675 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. REPEATING THE 500 PM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...88.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE
Here is the NHC track. As it is right now that would put me right in the cross hairs for its landfall if it stays to that track.
WTNT45 KNHC 032157 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008 600 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008 WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO...IT FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...A DROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. EDOUARD IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2200Z 28.1N 88.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
We had the slip and slide out in the back yard today and were doing our rain dance....I hope it works....come on little stormy, come to DaDakoteeee DD
For those concerned with rapid intensification, I put together this overlay of the forecast track on the current Gulf heat potential. This shows the warmer areas of the Gulf. Note that Edouard is currently over some moderate heat with the worst to his south. Since the forecast model tracks all seem to be in excellent agreement, it would appear Edouard will remain well north of the Gulf's warmest waters making rapid intensification like we saw with Katrina and Rita unlikely. If you recall, in 2005, the Loop Current eddy - a deep, warm pool of water that sits in the Gulf nearly every summer - was what caused both of those storms to blow up as both eyes passed directly over some of the warmest portions of that eddy. In contrast, even the warmest portions of the Gulf are several degrees cooler than the eddy was in 2005.
I just got home from Spring and it was raining big time on the Hardy Toll Road . My yard desperately needs its .
I think those charts are used far more than necessary. That just indicates that the depth of the very warm water is deeper in those areas listed as orange etc. That doesn't mean that the blue shaded areas are cold. Those are in fact very warm waters near the coast. The depth of the warm water may be shallow there but this is a moving system. Slow, but moving. If we had a stationary storm then those TCHP charts would have more significance imo.
