Nate Silver is the only one who gave Trump a reasonable chance to win the election. He also predicted the popular margin pretty accurately.
She's not going to win. The supporters of the other parties all hate Le Pen. The only chance she had was if the crazy communist guy beat out Macron and it ended up an election between the two crazies. As long as either Macron or Fillon made it, Le Pen was done. Keep in mind, they also compress elections so there's only two weeks for some kind of a major sea change in the electorate.
Yeah that Nate Silver and his predictions about the election... oh wait... That's right, Nate Silver didn't predict Hillary or Trump to win. I guess you don't understand what Nate Silver does. He looks at many different polls, and other factors and puts a percentage on the election. I think he had a Trump victory at over forty percent. Just like in Vegas or the lottery or anything else, sometimes the lower percentage bet wins. That doesn't mean anything Nate Silver predicted was wrong.
Le Pen won't win. I don't know much of anything about Macron, except that he's reportedly a centrist, whatever that means in France. Everything, however, adds up to a defeat for the French Putin lover, in my humble opinion. That's fine, because a dog catcher would be better than Le Pen.
My thoughts exactly. I'll just add that I hope Macron is much better than Francois Hollande, which isn't much to ask.
You are so so far in the weeds with this post. For starters, Nate Silver never had a Trump victory. When Trump won the nomination, he had his highest peak during the election from pollsters. It it crashed immediately after that. He was always 3 - 7 points behind. Nate Silver failed in the same department as everyone else; He was too busy focusing on the popular vote. Silver doesn't rely on a 'wager' system for his results, so Vegas or anything like that has nothing to do with the conversation. He uses science and math to get his results. He used garbage math and got garbage results.
What, your post is the one that doesn't make any sense. I was using the Vegas comparison to discuss percentages and how lower percentage odds can still end up being winners. I wasn't saying Nate Silver had any kind of a wager system. But he absolutely had a percentage system, and because the lower percentage pick wins that doesn't mean Nate Silver was wrong. It simply means the lower percentage came up that time. You are correct that Nate never picked a Trump victory. I never claimed he did. He also never picked a Hillary victory. All he did was place percentages based on numerous factors. So what you're saying about Nate Silver just doesn't make sense.
The right-wing resents Nate Silver and will never forgive him for being accurate about Obama vs. Romney. Their nuttiness about a Romney surprise will forever amaze me. Trump's win (which ALL pollsters missed) must seem like vindication. His comments on Silver are typical.
This is a weird post, since the post you responded to never claimed that Silver predicted a Trump victory. This was his final prediction: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ He gave Trump virtually a 30% chance to win, relative to the 5% or less by other prediction outfits. Also a weird response. Silver's model specifically is a state-by-state system. His model doesn't care about national popular vote AT ALL. It looks state-by-state and then analyzes the chances that each state poll is inaccurate. His model concluded there was a ~30% chance that enough state polls were off that you could have a Trump victory - again, higher than anyone else. As I've posted before, this is another example of you being clueless about the things you post about and respond to. You don't appear to have the slightest idea what Nate Silver does, how his model works, or what his predictions are, which makes it really weird that you try to argue about it.
Russia for sure. Yeah since they pretty much have managed to cancel out the influences of everyone else in the world. Wow Russia is so OP. I will put a percentage on Nate Silver being wrong. That way, if I'm wrong, I can make up a bs argument about percentage to cover my ass.
Any other French is hoping that. Then again as you said it can't be worse. That's also why Le Pen had a strong run during these elections. The French people want a change and some a are getting desperate about it. Macron is a centrist in the sense that he reaches out to both sides. He is the most logical consensus excluding the wackos of the far right.
In all seriousness, I think Le Pen will win but no one wants to admit this because the pollsters and media is largely middle-class and out of touch with the working-class majority. This is why most professional pollsters were off with their predictions regarding Trump and I think it may happen in France as well. We are in the middle of a transition from the powergrip of the left centrists to one that's to the right of it. IF she loses, I expect her support to only grow and she will take it next election year as the left centrists have proven ineffective in the eyes of many voters. I don't know French politics but I do know that they will have a point where they say enough is enough. I called Brexit and Trump, but France is a different beast. I don't feel confident predicting her election to be fair. But I will still bet on Le Pen surprising people because of the negative feelings people now have towards the Eu, the employment situation, and the military response to rampant gangs of immigrants. There are attacks happening all of the time and they even had to deploy military support to hold and election. They don't even need to do that in parts of the second and third world in many cases. Psychologically, this deployment in its streets, and the state of emergency, hurt the establishment position that everything is fine. People will start to notice if they haven't already. The only person proposing change is Le Pen. The establishment bodies like Macron are telling people that immigration-related terror is just going to be a part of life. Bending over is not an acceptable or reasonable position for most people. The working class will eventually do what they feel protects their interests. If not this election, then by the next one.
LOL. You think the pollsters were off for that reason in the US? So really weird, given that the pollsters got the margin pretty close to accurate. I believe the consensus poll was Hillary +3 and the final result was Hillary +2. Where they went wrong is that they underestimated Trump support in the midwest while overestimating it in blue states. France doesn't have an electoral college, so regional polling is irrelevant. So Macron is suddenly an establishment body, despite forming his own independent party last year to run for election? The two establishment parties already lost in this election. At least you're honest that you really don't know anything about the French people or their elections.
I don't know who will win, but please look at the post from @Major about this. Macron is completely outside of the establishment.
Macron is the establishment. Look at his social circle and how he got his money. Just because he isn't part of a "major" party doesn't mean he isn't in bed with the establishment. You have to look beyond appearances.
Trump won in part because of the rust belt where working-class Americans were straight passed up during the "recovery." I'd say my description holds regrading why Trump was victorious. As for him being establishment, yes. There is a headfake going on regarding this because people are trained to associate establishment with parties. His social circle, the source of his money, all tells of someone who is very much part of the fabric that makes up the establishment of France. It's not about the name of your party. It's all about who you know and who you owe. How do you think he got to where he is?
Again I'm totally trying to understand your positions. Are you pro LePen because you sound like you are but not outright saying it but playing around with muddying the waters by bringing down the other candidate. If you are pro LePen tell us what is so great about her. This is someone that thinks the Holocaust was just a"detail" during WW2. Her brand is Islamaphobia and white nationalism. It's not bs spin about the middle class and working class. Nobody in France is voting for her because of jobs like some thought Trump could be good for in the US. So be honest and say what points you are trying to get across please. Thnx
Here... some quick information on this political establishment outsider via wiki: Macron worked as an Inspector of Finances in the French Ministry of Economy between 2004 and 2008. In 2007, he served as deputy rapporteur for the Commission to improve French economic growth headed by Jacques Attali.[8] Macron paid €50,000 to buy himself out of his government contract in 2008,[11] and left to work as an investment banker at a highly-paid position at Rothschild & Cie Banque.[12] * * * Macron was a member of the Socialist Party (PS) from 2006 to 2009. In 2015, he stated that he was no longer a member of the PS and was now an Independent.[13] From 2012 to 2014, he served as deputy secretary-general of the Élysée, a senior role in President Hollande's staff.[10] He was appointed as the Minister of Economy and Finance in the second Valls Cabinet on 26 August 2014, replacing Arnaud Montebourg.[2] Wow, he looks like such an outsider! Amazing how he was able to come this far.
Show me her quotes as saying that cause I think it's her father you're thinking of re: the halocaust, and please tell me how she is Islamophobic and making this about race? Where is the evidence of your accusations? Don't confuse nationalism with white nationalism because there is definitely a difference. She's not some neonazi, racist, far-right loon. I haven't yet seen her say anything about whites btw, but maybe I'm wrong, so link if you have it. I have only seen her take a hardline stance on immigration. Which they have the right to, as does any country. She herself has taken a firm stance on immigration because it's come to the point where they have to put their country under a state of emergency and deploy troops just to hold an election. Attacks are growing more and more frequent. The public is just told this will be a normal part of life. Where are you getting your information from or are these just feelings you have because of how she is portrayed to people in the media? Because honestly, you act like French people don't have a right to defend their country and culture from essentially a flood of immigrants who often set up enclaves which makes it hard to assimilate. My position is that people have a right to their borders and a right to oppose mass immigration, which has a slew of problems it brings. The French way of life is drastically being affected by this and it has nothing to do with race. It has everything to do with bad policy and the effects of trying to assimilate too many people at one time. Le Pen is at the very least proposing to stop the madness, rather than just sit there and deal with it. Le Pen is not the demon she is made out to be. If you want to see far right, trust me, it's a lot scarier than someone like Le Pen who would at most be a mild reformer from the typical do-nothings they have now. So yeah I support Le Pen. Viva Le Pen. I hope she wins, and if not I hope she wins the next time around. Make France Great Again for sure and leave the EU.
