Seen in an ESPN article on if player breakout's are sustainable: Perhaps the article was poorly timed because he gave up 7ER in his start last night to balloon his ERA to 4.55 He could yet turn into a functional rotation piece but the other two guys in the Gattis trade are basically zeros. Meanwhile Gattis has been solid and Hoyt is a useful bullpen piece. No regrets on that trade.
He had a great year last year, but he's doing the same: Robbie Grossman has turned himself into a legitimate MLB OFer. (defensive shortcomings notwithstanding)
Update on the all Astros-cast offs team position players: C Nottingham is struggling in AA C Heineman is about league avg in AAA 1B Brett Wallace was released by the Padres 2B Ronald Torreyes is breaking out with the Yankees SS Villar is struggling with the Brewers SS Fontana is about league avg in AAA 3B Rio Ruiz is about league avg in AAA 3B Matt Dominguez is struggling in AAA OF Brett Phillips is hitting well in AAA OF Domingo Santana is about league avg with the Brewers OF Robbie Grossman is hitting well with the Twins OF JD Martinez is hurt OF JB Shuck is struggling in AAA
Pitchers: RHP Harold Arauz is throwing well in A ball RHP Tom Eshelman dominated AA and had a stellar start in AAA RHP Appel is sucking in AAA RHP Mengden has been hurt RHP Foltynewicz has been about league avg with the Braves RHP Velasquez has regressed with the Phillies (although his xFIP is about league avg) RHP Albert Abreu has muddled in high A and is now hurt RHP Jorge Guzman has not pitched yet in the Yankees system RHP Cosart has been hurt RHP Paul Clemens has been terrible in AA RHP Dan Straily has been pretty good for the Marlins RHP Nick Tropeano is hurt RHP Adrian Houser is hurt LHP Brett Oberholtzer is throwing well in AAA LHP Josh Hader is one of the top prospects in baseball LHP Chris Lee is struggling in AAA Some position players I forgot about: C Carlos Perez is hitting well in AAA OF DDJ is struggling with the Rangers 1B Telvin Nash is suspended SS Jio Mier is struggling in AA UT Kike' Hernandez is a great all around player and continues to succeed with the Dodgers
Of those 34 players, 22 were signed by Houston as amateurs. I'd be interested to know how that stacks up against other teams, in terms of pre-free agent farm products player in other teams' organizations.
That Gomez/Fiers trade is the only one that really feels like it could hurt down the road. Santana seems like the kind of guy who will breakout with an all-star season around age 26-27. I seriously doubt he would have developed/gotten the same opportunities in Houston but it'll be tough to see a guy with his upside reach it with another club. Maverick is also going to be a ML'er and with his package of plus speed and power could also find his way into a few above-average/star seasons. Never was a huge fan of Hader, but he consistently gotten and maintained top prospect status. He's another definite future ML'er with high upside if everything comes together. Getting 4 ML'ers (Houser got his cup o'coffee) three of which have above-average upside was a coup. Especially considering the return which was mediocre early and is downright terrible now. Now compare that to the Gattis/Hoyt deal where we got two solid pieces and Atlanta potentially only got 1 in Folty....
My Luhnow trade verdicts: Won: Lowrie-Melancon Fowler-Lyles Gattis-Folty Martes-Cosart Paulino-Veras Devenski-Myers Hader-Norris Bostick-Corporan Musgrove-Happ Dominguez-Lee Lost: Gomez-Phillips Krauss-Johnson Grossman-Wandy Sneed-Villar Conger-Tropeano Morales-Ruggiano Push: Carter-Lowrie Chapman-Quintero Lopez-White Valbuena-Fowler TBD: McCann-Abreu Chavez-Feldman Alvarez-Fields Giles-Velasquez Smith-Maxwell Kazmir-Nottingham
Hader is the prospect I most hated to see go out of all the players Luhnow has traded away. In his years in the system he was the only pitcher I thought had a real chance to become a full-on ace. Even though his stock has gone up since the trade, I have come down a little bit in that respect; I think his range of outcomes has narrowed in that I think it's very unlikely he becomes Chris Sale, but his floor is probably a really good lefty reliever, and he very well could end up as an above average MLB starter.
He needs to quit walking people. For whatever reason, he just reminds me of Halama. Probably that advanced metric where they each have the same initials and were involved in a major trade.
Based on expectation, I think Astros made a fair deal though I liked Phillips. Hader, I'm surprised he has become a top 100 prospect. Based on results, I'd wait for Brewers actually to get value from the deal even though Gomez has disappointed and Fiers is sucking this year. Being traded by Astros as a pitcher with little or no MLB experience does not bode well for a pitcher's health. Add in that Hader's delivery isn't easy, and his arm could explode at any moment (big exaggeration). Right now, Fiers is pitching in majors about as well as Hader is in AAA. Phillips is rocking decent stats except he is making AJ Reed look like an elite contact hitter. Santana has been replacement level this year.
Almost all of those deals were giving up almost nothing. I can't consider anything other than the Gomez deal as an actual loss.
Halama threw puss, Hader can deal. He'd look good in the pen this July (if anyone can ever figure out a way to jettison Sipp).
Santana's been replacement level overall but a lot of the advanced stats are promising: ISO > .200 Cut his K% from 32.6% to 26.1% while maintaining a 12% BB% rate. 103 wRC+ (average production but a huge positive showing he's not overwhelmed). His career path looks really promising. If he ticks up a bit more next season the Brewers could be looking at 5 seasons of 120+ wRC+ production.
