Others have commented on this in other threads, but I felt you would benefit from a more accessible link to it: https://omny.fm/shows/duncd-on-bask...il-game-6-mia-offseason-outlook-evan-mobley-s Start at 49min 30s. It’s over half an hour of Evan Mobley tape breakdown that goes deeper than anything else I’ve heard so far, particularly from Rockets Twitter accounts who do nothing but salivate over a handful of highlight reel tape. Worthy of a listen.
I see six prospects in this draft That have a high ceiling and a high floor I hope Detroit takes Green , I doubt it I really wish the Rockets could do almost anything in their power to grab another top six pick I wanna come off Gordon , Christian Wood and Wall if Possible Want to be the youngest team in the league by significant Margin
I think I’m out on Mobley. (Not sure I was ever in but Green fans are hella annoying. ) It is the draft and they are all prospects and we are projecting forward but for Mobley, it’s like “If he does this, if he does, if he does, if this works out, if that works out then wow! He could really work out and be great/be a great pick!” Not taking that at two. At 8, 10, 12, hell maybe even 5 as the last of the “Big 5”, sure. “If he puts on weight…but not too much weight! Could affect his versatility!” “If his offense comes around.” “If his shot develops…” “If he goes to the right team/coaching…” “If this happens…” “If that happens…” He’s a project/work in progress. Could work out or not. How is he a “unicorn” or “generational talent” when Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, Jalen Duran are coming down the pipe? Whoever the one guy is at end (not a Nate & Danny listener)…all over the map. “Below Towns but in the Ayton/Jackson range maybe but actually maybe a worse Porzingis (before injuries).”
-Best measurements I could find: 7’0 210lbs with 7’4 wingspan or thereabouts. -9’0 standing reach, which was surprisingly low. You’d expect more in the 9’3 range. Not a huge standing reach. … -Very thin; played with another big -There hasn’t been a player, a big, for me that has had a larger margin between what they could be if everything works out — the theory of him on offense & defense, if both hit vs. not the worst case scenario but the 50% scenario. There’s a lot of really intriguing elements of Mobley’s game. A lot tantalized by Mobley offensively. To me, what struck me so much was I expected to be more confident in what he is and what he’ll be than I ended up being. -Glad you said that because I feel the same way. We’re both very opinionated people. I don’t have one on Mobley. There are many things to like and many things you can talk yourselves into. There aren’t necessarily huge weaknesses either, like “this could be a big problem for him.” There’s maybe a couple, everyone has weaknesses but he’s not a guy where it’s like “That’s really glaring!” He doesn’t have a very easy comp. I can’t come up with that. Where I want to start is his position. … A little bit of Jaren in him. Feel is way better than Jaren’s. As thin as he is, I think he’ll be able to play center? … Is it a no brainer he’ll be able to play center in more than spot minutes? -Yes, pretty much. That part of the Mobley experiment I’m not as concerned about. I think about Bam a lot with Mobley. Not because they’re the same physically or anything else but there’s two sides of a similar coin. Mobley is too thin and I think he always will be. He doesn’t have the type of frame where he’ll get huge. Maybe he can get strong in his arms. Skinny legs. He gets moved by dudes. He gets moved by 6’5 guards sometimes. The things that Mobley is more limited by defensively are becoming less relevant but not irrelevant. If he can’t stop Embiid, you can scheme around that. I bring up Bam is this duality with Mobley I generally feel good about but not as good as I wanted to. I’ve criticized Bam for years as being a better switch defender than rim protector. He can do both things but he’s better at switching. I see Mobley as the opposite. He can do both things but he’s better at protecting the rim than switching. That actually I think ties in better with the modern NBA than what Bam does on the simple logic that you need someone to protect the rim and Mobley is thinking about that a little bit more. He gets spacey on switches and all that type of stuff but I like the idea of someone who can switch a little bit. He has these short choppy steps but is probably better doing traditional center stuff, other than strength stuff. You can slot that in. The other guy I thought about when watching Mobley defensively, not comparing the two, is DeAndre Ayton. I’m more concerned about Ayton’s limitations as the game evolves, even though Ayton got these two incredibly favorable matchups defensively in the first two rounds than I am for Mobley. -Ayton is a different guy. … I’m worried about Mobley’s ability to play center due to being thin. You do have to guard Embiid, Sabonis, he might too thin to guard Sabonis, Jokic will kill him. Maybe he can get to where Clint Capela is, strength wise. That’s probably your highest upside. I would say Capela has a stronger frame. He can’t defensive rebound. He’ll try to box out. He’ll try to be physical but he doesn’t pursue the ball well out of his area. He had a under 20% defensive rebound rate, which is very poor. USC as a team had a poor defensive rebound rate. (181st) … He’s not a lazy player but he doesn’t play especially hard. That was pretty clear. He wasn’t like “Oh man, this is great effort or he ran the floor hard or made multiple efforts or was flying around the court.” -Only wrote in all caps in one general area in my Mobley notes and it was in the Gonzaga game, which is the first game I watched. Early in the game, I wrote in all caps, “DOES HE EVER RUN THE FLOOR HARD?” His regular pace is a long gallop. It looks slower than it is. He did run the floor and then I wrote “He ran the hard floor once.” You can see it sometimes in transition. … -45 transition possessions in 33 games. 17 of those were as the trailer. 8 of those were as the ball handler, which were not good. Bunch of turnovers. First Middle is category on Synergy of what you would traditionally think of a big man running the floor. Sprinting the floor, sucking the defense, you either get the ball or someone has to take you and you set up a three for your teammate. 7 possessions all year. That’s terrible. Not good at all. … -It was exceedingly rare. I wondered at one point when I was watching “Does he play 40 minutes per game?” 34 is a lot. It was unnerving how little he did that. … That gets to the bigger partial concern I have with Mobley. He has good physical tools in a lot of ways. The more I watched, I noticed Mobley being more of a reactor than anticipator. You can do that and still be a good defender in the NBA. … The big men I have truly loved as college or international prospects have been better in the instinct game. Whether we’re talking Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, Karl Anthony Towns, …with Mobley, he doesn’t do those anticipation plays very often and sometimes his reactions are slow. … I was stunned how many times he was in what could have been help position but it was not help position. It’s correctable but was a concern. -Not as low on him as you are at this point in time in terms of his instincts. In PnR coverage, he was solid. … The long arms, he did almost average 3 blocks a game and almost a steal a game. Nature of his blocks is interesting. He doesn’t ever foul. I would have liked to see him foul more. Be more eager and play a little bit harder. Offensive glass another effort category he was mediocre in, 9% offensive rebounds. He does a good job contesting without fouling. 1.8 fouls per game in 34 minutes. Still got a fair number of blocks. … Kinda gets some Tim Duncan style blocks. Doesn’t leave his feet much. Verticality was OK. … He does have defensive potential. … He’ll get put in the goal by NBA bigs. Good timing. Avoided fouling, avoids going for pump fakes. Smart player. Don’t see him get fooled, don’t see him make mistakes. You want to see more positive plays and errors of commission but doesn’t make errors of omission. -He’s worse at giving up position than high end big man prospects but better once the guy settles in. As you said, not fouling, knowing what he can do to affect the shot. Isolation defense, which is a rough proxy for some of the switching stuff, he generally did a good job. He can do short choppy steps when he needs to. He can get into his stance a little more than a lot of guys do. … Only criticism, which I think will be corrected if he goes to a system where it matters, there were times Mobley would get a guy on a switch, that player would pass off but he wouldn’t be going back into the paint, he’d still be on the guy and they’d move a little bit and get an open shot. That can be corrected. He’s generally close enough to the right spot I’m not super worried. -He’s not able to get deep into a stance. He’s not making the guy he’s guarding uncomfortable. Very rare he’d just get beaten. Able to contain. He can stay in front and get a decent contest. … He’s not Anthony Davis as a defender. He can be an impressive defensive player. He’s a smooth guy on both ends that he’s kinda there, he’s long, he’ll make it difficult but won’t make the spectacular play. He does block shots with both hands. He can get up for a few big blocks on occasion but more steady, huge wingspan and able to make plays around the rim. Anything else on his defense? -He’s so long, even his late closeouts are pretty good. … I think Mobley, in passing lanes, didn’t think he had active hands. He did get some steals. He didn’t get as many deflections as I thought someone like him would but it’s not like he’s horrendous. -Let’s talk about his offense. The most impressive skill for him was his passing. 2.4 assists per game. He made the right decision nearly every time. … Even more impressive, he likes to face up and drive and handle the ball. He’s able to make plays on the move. … Mobley, when doubled team or in the lane, he’d find cutters along the baseline or kick it out to the correct shooter. … Impressive stuff from him. One of the better passing bigs. He absolutely profiles as someone you can run everything through at the elbow. I like that as a starting point for his game. It’s possible but probably more likely than not he won’t be a dominating one on one scorer.
-Right. The Mobley offensive game is so fascinating. I loved his interior passing. … I also thought his passing vocabulary was better than most bigs. … You brought up the limitations as a scorer. It could theoretically feed into an overall game where Mobley could be a jump shooter as well. He shoots a pretty easy ball. Only shot 12/40 on threes but 69% from the line is not terrible. Only took 25 midrange shots but was 13-25. The mechanics on his shot looked good. I don’t think Mobley will be able to do the Jokic game of make passes and then if you draw a double or get a smaller guy, bully the crap out of him. I don’t think he has the physical tools or skill tools to get there. He can do some other things that are potent. I don’t know he can do the DHO attacking for a scorer we saw Bam do but this is nice place to start. It’s unconventional but think it could work. -Offensively, other than as an offensive rebounder, I think he’s solid in just about every area. You mentioned the shooting. My guess is his shooting is OK but not 5-alarm fire we gotta guard this guy/he’ll hit 40% of his threes. Not sure I’d go as far as the easy ball you said. It’s a little flat. A lot of his shots are shot. He can face up… -I meant mechanically. His lower body is smooth rather than the way it is in the air. -There are times he can bust something off the dribble. Times when he would break out nice moves. One time he caught it triple threat near the FT line, jab step right, between his legs and I think he set up a pass out of that to a guy underneath. Is he gonna get to where he can iso and shoot a step back? There’s many of these things, they could happen. He has a high skill level already, the ball has to go in the basket, he can get the footwork easily enough, has the athleticism to get some separation and shoot a step back or fade away out of the mid post or maybe face up and drive. Maybe he can have a little iso game but odds are against it. He doesn’t have an unbelievable first step. Don’t think he’ll have a jumper where it’s so good, we have to get up on him and then we’re worried about him blowing by. This is why I don’t have a great feel for him. You watch him do some of these things but wonder, can he actually evolve these flashes/evolve these particular skills? … There are flashes and raw material but he also has to majorly improve in all these. He’s 20 years old. Just turned 20 about ten days ago. Maybe slightly older than your normal one-and-done guy. … There is upside in different areas but don’t see that one thing other than maybe passing where you’re like he has something to hang his hat on as someone we’ll run offense through other than like as a passer at the elbow. Should we talk about his post game? -His post up game wasn’t particularly impressive as a scorer. He can’t move guys well enough to create problems. Also not a biggest fan of his touch around the basket. When he can get all the way in, sure. The 5ft-6ft shot, I didn’t love it. -It seemed like he’d get good looks more than he’d make them. Harder for him to get the ball sometimes because he’d get fronted or whatever. 23% usage. Skill level is obvious. Gets great extension on his jump hook. If he’s able to get to that, he’s able to step around guys. Got up fakes. Can go left shoulder, right shoulder. Can shoot a turn around. Got a left handed hook. The post up numbers were not particularly impressive on Synergy. He’s more efficient on other play types. Finishing and touch came into play. That’s a big part of it, whether you can make that shot go in. Jokic and Ayton have that. I don’t know if Mobley does. Skill level still high. He’s not gonna be able to back guys down but can work in a position, go back and forth, step around guys, get guys out position, step through. If you put a gun to my head and say is this a guy you’re gonna throw the ball against another center and have him go to work, probably not. Maybe against a small/switch? … I’m not ruling out the possibility he can post up or be good against switches/smaller players but he’s thin enough, he doesn’t scream to me he’ll overwhelm you, we gotta double team because he’s posting up our SF. Maybe he gets there, maybe he doesn’t? More likely he doesn’t. He’d need to get stronger, more athletic or become a better shooter. -That’s why the 2nd game I watched was against Washington State…that was a game I chose deliberately. He had 20 pts, 11 rebs, 6 blks. … He played well but never like “Oh crap!” They weren’t sending doubles. The Washington State Cougars were not freaking out about Mobley’s offense. … -It’s tough for big guys to dominate in college. Not a lot of space, don’t have a ton of shooting, harder to enter the ball,…As a finisher, he definitely if he gets it a little on the move, he can pop up and get his head near the rim. “Wow, he dunked that fast!” Doesn’t have the greatest 2nd jump and it’s not that quick off the floor. He can get alley-oops but don’t think he’ll be a go grab it at the corner of the backboard type of guy as an alley-oop finisher. He can have solid gravity. Same thing around the rim. … Decent left & right hand. Got to learn to deal with getting bumped more. Smart player. High skill level. I think that touch will improve. Very good hands. On his face up game trying to drive to the basket, don’t really see guys in college who are bigs have enough room to attack & finish off one foot. Didn’t really see him get any euro type of game. I think he can get into that type of finishing as time goes on. … … -Don’t want to get into a psychological profile but it seems when I watch film, he offensively wishes he was shorter. He relishes doing those smaller guy things. … One of the defining questions of his NBA career will not be will he get the opportunity but is he good enough at them to have a team give him those opportunities? -Let’s get into our evaluation of him. Offensively, the bar is so high right now for a center to be someone you run offense through. The only guys are Embiid and Jokic and Towns. I don’t see Mobley getting to that level of offense. Can he get into Sabonis, Bam, Vucevic type of level? Different guys but a guy who can be a 2nd option, you run some stuff through him but isn’t the guy creating elite offense for you and also better on defense than a couple of those guys. That I could see but I don’t know that’s even certain. To unlock his potential offensively, he has to be a 5 defensively. Him trying to post Jae Crowder when you have another center on the floor, I don’t see that working that well to be a foundation. … His shooting ability, ability to drive & pass, passing is less useful when you have another center on the floor because that center probably can’t shoot, especially if it’s the burly type to protect him because he’s too thin. His offensive game at center can be really good. At PF, he’d have to make himself into an awesome shooter as opposed to a solid shooter. I don’t see him as this dominating offensive player. Defensively, the potential is high. Could he be a guy who switches a lot? Maybe? Maybe he could? … I do see him as a little Jaren-y defensively, although much smarter. Struggles on the defensive glass, makes blocks but more in the guy’s hand than in the air. As a switch guy, film not as impressive as Jaren at Michigan State and even Jaren has not been that good as a switch guy in the league. These could all evolve if you have the right coaching, right body development. I would say Jaren is a decent comp defensively. -I think Mobley could be a little better as a straight 5 than Jaren so far but it’s a reasonable comp. -Mobley is a better PnR defender. … Both have this little drive game. Jaren the better shooter. I don’t see Mobley being this awesome bomber from outside. 69% FT, I think Jaren was way better than that. … There are some pretty obvious ways for him to fail. If he’s not a center defensively and then he’s just a guy on offense. It all comes back to him being a center defensively and fitting into that position. There’s also some concerns he doesn’t play that hard. You’d like to see him play harder. It’s not criminally bad. Not lazy but there’s an economy of movement.
-To me, there are 2 different ways a center can be a difference maker in a high level series. One way, you are compatible with defensive schemes. This is is many ways Bam Adebayo. You don’t have to play smaller because they can do some of the smaller things. The other one is you are so damn good that it doesn’t matter if you can’t do everything because the team is better with you out there. That’s Embiid and Jokic and a lot of the other best centers. The thing challenging about Mobley is that I do not have particular confidence, at his best, will check either box—being able to fit a lot of systems or so good the systems doesn’t matter. There is a plausible chance he does either or both which is really unusual. The idea he can be versatile enough defensively or offensively be a hub. I don’t think he’ll be that level of offensive player but as an overall, he’s one of your three best players so you won’t have him off the floor. My lack of confidence that he’ll definitely do one or both makes it more likely he can still be a good player but not reach that threshold of he has to be out there, those are the guys who get paid, and the ones we truly value around the league. -If you told me for sure he’ll hold up defensively and on the boards as a center, I’d be higher on him. … It’s more likely than not he can hold up at center eventually but… -But as a top 10 defensive center? There’s people who see that. I’m more skeptical that that’s the case. -He swallows dudes up sometimes. The not fouling. He’s a really smart player. The passing. I think he could get there except for the rebounding and post defense. -I’ve thought about Capela. 7’5 wingspan, sturdier dude. -Think he has better defensive instincts than Capela. -Let’s start in 2014, bigs drafted high: 2020: Wiseman, Okongwu 2019: Not really anybody; don’t consider Zion a big; would put Jaxson Hayes a level below Mobley as a prospect 2018: Bagley, Ayton, Jackson, Bamba; would say Carter is a level below 2017: Nobody 2016: Dragan Bender not a traditional big 2015: Towns, Okafor, Porzingis 2014: Embiid Where would you slide him in? -I separate bigs, of the higher end guys, into 3 categories: Likely star, almost definite starter, likely starter, unlikely star The middle tier is the nebulous one. That is players who are possible stars and likely starters but not likely stars. That’s where I have him. I was higher on Myles Turner, I had Turner over Porzingis; had Turner there, had Ayton in that group, had Wiseman there. I’d have Mobley definitely below Towns but in the mix with Ayton and Jaren and Myles Turner. -Turner was drafted lower. Kinda in that Ayton/Jaren range is how I would think of him. I think he’s more offensively skilled than either. I think he has higher offensive upside. … I can see Mobley becoming more of an Al Horford-esque offensive player potentially. Different body type, maybe more face up game, a little better finisher in PnR. I think Mobley would be a solid roll man. He’ll be an above average offensive center. I feel pretty good about that aspect. It’s a question of whether the ball will go in for him as a shooter and whether he’ll be able to beat guys one-on-one in the post, at least on switches. Defensively, he has a lot of potential. It’s just if he weren’t so thin. That gives me some concern. I don’t have a great feeling for how his body will fill out. He looks so gangly out there but that length swallows guys up at times. I’d probably put him as slightly above Ayton and Jackson, below Towns. Porzingis I wasn’t high on at the time. Maybe more in the Porzingis range. Don’t think he’ll be as good a shooter as Porzingis but can do more facing the basket. Same problem of the inability to get low and move people. More mobile defensively. Porzingis maybe better rim protector when in position. Kinda in that range. If you had to say ‘Hey, will he be better than Porzingis before injuries?’ I’d say probably a little worse and there is a way the bottom falls out on Mobley. The odds of him making the strides he theoretically could make in all these different areas, I’d obviously be interested in the intel on the type of worker he is. Smart player. Just gotta get more of a fire under him, which who knows if that’ll happen. If guys like Green and Cunningham are what they’re cracked up to be, I’d guess I’d have Mobley below them just because he’s a center/big but I was impressed. Not blown away. He’s the quite the ball of clay.
[QUOTE="J.R.”][/QUOTE] The Al Horford comp is an interesting one to me. At his peak, he was a solid #2/#3 scorer, above average rebounder and even rim protector, one of the best passing bigs in the league, and an impact defensive player. 5-time all star. They’re different body types, but the ability to positively impact in so many dimensions, but being a shade short of elite in any particular area is a good comp to me. All that said, I don’t think anyone every really saw Horford as a #1 and probably not even a #2 on a championship caliber team (He was #1 in VORP on the 60 win Hawks team, but their #3 scorer… that team of course got swept in the Conference Finals by the Cleveland LeBrons). The league has changed a bit - Mobley is probably not as sturdy a defender inside as Horford, but better on the perimeter. If you could draft a 19 year old Al Horford at #2 — would you take it?
@NIKEstrad also agree the Horford comp was VERY interesting. Forget body type, but the skills brought to the table. Is Mobley the 1st or 2nd best player on a championship team? Feels like 3rd best to me. The way Bosh was in Miami. Not 2nd best like AD with LeBron. Horford is that 3rd best type guy. I think Bam is a 3rd best type guy. Miami is missing a 2nd best. That's why they need Lowry or someone like that. I feel like Green could be a 1st or 2nd best type guy. I just keep coming around to that.
Focusing on criticisms, only because we always see the positives in the video clips and analyses: Poor defensive rebounding % Mediocre box outs Weak frame Mediocre ball pursuit out of area Doesn't play especially hard Good rim protector, can do a little bit of switching, the opposite of Bam Adebayo Plays at a very deliberate pace Very rarely has explosive or transition plays Floats a little bit, anchors in the paint and doesn't follow his man Doesn't have a ton of anticipation plays This is sounding pretty Darko to me. You want motor, hunger and drive in a lottery pick that you can mold. This is what separates the Olajuwons and Aytons from the Thabeets and Bennetts. They made a couple of subtle Tim Duncan references in terms of his defense and how he relies on positioning and "economies of motion" instead of effort and grit to play good defense. That's definitely interesting. They also said he's probably never going to be a scorer, more fo a super Brad Miller where you run plays through him and his passing on the elbow.
Horford was basically bargain brand Tim Duncan. If they feel like Mobley could develop into a Tim Duncan type then you draft him. Give me the *smartest* player between Green, Suggs and Mobley. At this point I'd rather a 20/8 guy that contributes to Ws in the Playoffs vs a 30/4 guy who's the best player on an 8 seed. I feel like Mobley and Suggs are more cerebral than Green who looks like he wants to end up on NBA Top 10 every play.
How about a 15/6 player? Mobley's not really known for putting up points or grabbing rebounds... Has to be said, for somebody people are holding up as a defensive freak, evaluations like this one are pretty damning. Unicorns don't exist.
My problem is how many Tim Duncans have there ever been? I think you're happy to take that gamble at 10, ecstatic to roll the dice at 30. 2? Not sure.
Agreed. Objectively, a 5-time all star (like Horford, and Bam will probably end up in that world too) is a great outcome for a #2 pick. That’d be a very good outcome for Mobley. Maybe he can end up closer to AD, but that’s a hell of a lot to ask. In a world where we felt we had a cornerstone (say, we were the Mavs of a year or two ago with Doncic on board), I’d probably think differently. I like Mobley a lot (and he was my gut reaction pick), but I think I’m in the same boat - I’d rather run a bit more risk and take a shot on a potentially transcendent scorer, even if the likely outcome and low case outcome on Mobley is higher.
It's tough because there may be guards a bit further back in the mock drafts who could wind up, perhaps, maaaaaaaaybe, as better than Green when all is said and done. Or not. And it's the "or not" that gnaws at my Rockets heart. Mobley's impact with his passing and defense are intriguing. We seemed lacking in both last season, especially the latter; when Woods went down our defense went off the rails and led to a spectacular train wreck, chasing Harrison Ford into a culvert....three times a week until the season ended with a sign saying GONE FISHIN'. As Vinnie Barbarino would say (anyone else here no longer "young"?), "I'M SO CONFUSED!"
Let's simplify this analysis of Evan Mobley - way too much overthinking going on here: Best defender in the Power 5 NCAA last year; #2 overall Best box score +/- in the NCAA last year -- very high correlation to NBA success Top 5 in offensive win shares in the NCAA last year Mobley is elite at both ends of the court, and his body hasn't even filled out yet. Centers physically reach their full potential later than wings and guards -- Mobley is amazing today and has significant room to improve from here with added strength and mass.
lol - yes the key to determining boom or bust potential is to always distill scouting reports down to the 3 best stats and ignore the critiques!
